I'm not sure I follow: you aren't "disagreeing" with me, so much as saying that in fact the numbers could be WAY over on Bush's side?
I'm not really disagreeing with you; your scenario is a plausible one. I just don't think it's likely. I think the voter mix in 2004 will be quite different than what we have seen before.
Your analysis was based on what typical voters do. I think it's quite likely that we will have a different set of voters in 2004.
I think it could be a blow-out either way, but more likely for Bush.