TROPICAL STORM BILL LIVE THREAD!

National Hurricane Center; others ^ | 29 June 2003 and later | AVILA, BEVEN, FRANKLIN, LAWRENCE, PASCH, STEWART, ET AL.

[dufekin]

This is the second storm of the season, following the extremely rare April tropical storm Ana.

TROPICAL STORM ANA LIVE THREAD: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/898165/posts

Post news articles, NHC bulletins, watches, warnings, hype, and speculation here.

Forecasts currently indicate a landfall between Brownsville and Gulfport within 2 days, followed by a turn to the east. It probably will strengthen before landfall, possibly into a minimal hurricane. More probable landfall between Port Lavaca, Texas and Jennings, Louisiana.

Tropical storm watch from San Luis Pass, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Cities most likely to be affected include Houston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Texas City, The Woodlands, Lake Jackson, Galveston, Conroe, Orange, Huntsville, Bay City, Tomball, Brenham, Port Lavaca, El Campo, and Lake Conroe Westshore.

In the Bayou State, the same applies to Lake Charles.

[ErnBatavia]

Port Lavaca...interesting old Texas Rangers cemetery right between two shrimp processing plants I visited about 15 years ago. Hope it survives.

[lainie]

Don't get me wrong, I know what you're going for. But I did laugh at the prospect of a days-long hurricane live thread.

[hole_n_one]

A well established thread on the same subject is here

[dufekin]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292025
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Bill discussion number 2
National Weather Service Tropical Prediction Hurricane Center Miami, Florida
5 PM EDT Sunday, June 29, 2003

Reports from an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon indicate that low level circulation center is not very well defined. This makes the initial motion rather uncertain. The initial motion estimate is 335/11. The track guidance is in good agreement about turning the storm north and then eastward around the western periphery of a mid level high pressure ridge extending eastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However the guidance also shifts the tracks eastward about 100 n mi from the previous advisory and so does the official forecast. This is partially due to shifting the initial position eastward. This also requires an eastward shift to the watch area which will also be changed to a warning.

The aircraft measured a central pressure of 1010 millibars, not very low, but the pressure gradient to the east of the storm is large. A 15Z ship report of 40 knots about 80 nautical miles northeast of the center, along with aircraft observations, is the basis for increasing the wind speed to 40 knots. The ships model brings the wind to 62 knots in 24 hours under light shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. In contrast none of the global models show strengthening. Also the present deep convection pattern is not very impressive. The official forecast is a compromise 55 knots at 24 hours.

Forecaster Lawrence

Forecast positions and max winds

Initial 29/2100Z 24.8°N, 91.1°W 40 knots
12 hour 30/0600Z 26.4°N, 91.9°W 45 knots
24 hour 30/1800Z 28.5°N, 92.5°W 55 knots
36 hour 01/0600Z 30.5°N, 92.0°W 30 knots, inland
48 hour 01/1800Z 31.5°N, 90.5°W 20 knots, inland
72 hour 02/1800Z 33.0°N, 86.0°W 20 knots, inland
96 hour 03/1800Z, inland


WTNT33 KNHC 292023
TCPAT3
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Bill advisory number 2
National Weather Service Tropical Prediction Hurricane Center Miami, Florida
5 PM EDT Sunday, June 29, 2003

At 4 PM CDT, 2100Z, a tropical storm warning is in effect from east of High Island, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi. The tropical storm watch from San Luis Pass to High Island is discontinued. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 4 PM CDT, 2100z, the center of tropical storm bill was located near latitude 24.8 north, longitude 91.1 west or about 325 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Bill is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph and a turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 millibars, 29.83 inches of mercury.

Storm surge coastal flooding is expected to be about 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels near and to the east of where the center moves inland.

Heavy rain is expected to move inland late tonight and Monday with amounts in the 5 to 8 inch range.

Repeating, the 4 PM CDT position is 24.8°N, 91.1° W. Movement is toward north-northwest near 13 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 45 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is 1010 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

[sweet_diane]

Bill is making it a wet and dreary day in south Alabama...

So far no one is expecting Bill to grow to Hurricane force thankfully.

[dufekin]

Tropical storm force winds now in southern Louisiana!

[sweet_diane]

hang on tight dufekin!

stay safe!

[dufekin]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 300830
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

There has not been a significant change in the cloud pattern associated with Bill. The low-level center is not clearly observed but it appears to be located to the south or southwest of the main area of convection. Initial intensity remains at 45 knots. Because The shear is forecast to relax and the ocean is warm, there is small window of opportunity for bill to become a minimal hurricane before landfall. A new recon will be in the area around 12 UTC.

Bill is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 12 knots. The cyclone is moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends from the Atlantic westward across Florida, and no significant change in motion is expected before landfall later today. Track guidance unanimously brings Bill northward to near the coast in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Bill or its remnants should turn more to the northeast as it becomes embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching short wave trough.

One should not focus on the center or the exact track of the tropical cyclone since strong winds and heavy rains can be experienced well away from the center.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast positions and max winds

Initial 30/0900z 27.6n 91.6w 45 kt
12hr vt 30/1800z 29.2n 91.7w 60 kt
24hr vt 01/0600z 32.0n 91.0w 25 kt, inland
36hr vt 01/1800z 34.0n 89.0w 20 kt, remnant low
48hr vt 02/0600z 35.0n 86.0w 20 kt, remnant low
72hr vt 03/0600z 36.0n 80.0w 20 kt, remnant low
96hr vt 04/0600z 37.0n 72.0w 20 kt, remnant low

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

...Bill heading for the Louisiana coast...

A hurricane watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana eastward to Morgan City, Louisiana. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from east of High Island, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 4 AM CDT, 0900Z, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 27.6 north, longitude 91.6 west, or about 130 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Bill is moving toward the north near 14 miles per hour this motion is expected to continue today. On this track, the center of the tropical cyclone will cross the Louisiana coast later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible before landfall and Bill could reach the coast as a hurricane. A reconnaissance plane will be in the area in a few hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars, 29.74 inches of mercury.

Storm surge coastal flooding is expected to be about 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

Heavy rainfall of 5 to 8 inches is expected later today as Bill approaches the southern coast of Louisiana.

Isolated tornados are possible over portions of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today.

Repeating the 4 AM CDT position, 27.6 n, 91.6 w. Movement toward, north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 AM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 AM CDT.

Forecaster Avila



Note: "there is a small window of opportunity for Bill to become a minimal hurricane before landfall." and the "hurricane watch"

[dufekin]

According to National Hurricane Center maps, it's currently hitting HOUMA and Galliano, Louisiana.

Up next are BATON ROUGE, LAFAYETTE, New Iberia, Opelousas, Morgan City, Plaquemine, Abbeville, Crowley, Donaldsonville, and Franklin. All are in the Bayou State.

Major cities that may be in the path of Bill later include New Orleans and Lake Charles in Louisiana, Little Rock and points east in Arkansas, Jackson and Gulfport in Mississippi along with most of the state, Memphis in eatern Tennessee, Tuscaloosa and northwestern Alabama, and the delta regions of Missouri and Kentucky.

Have a nice day!

[PJ-Comix]

Wasn't there once a TV movie about a major hurricane hitting New Orleans? The problem is that New Orleans is actually below sea level.

[PJ-Comix]

Four years ago Hurricane Floyd was heading DIRECTLY at Fort Lauderdale. That hurricane was massive. The weather folks kept saying that a high pressure system would cause Floyd to veer north but it didn't happen...until the last minute. Talk about the cavalry coming to the rescue. Just hours before Floyd would have hit Fort Lauderdale, the high pressure system coming in from the west cause Floyd to veer north. We experienced about 50 to 60 mile mph winds here but nothing compared to what would have happened if we weren't saved by that high pressure system that moved in at the last minute.

[NautiNurse]

Four years ago Hurricane Floyd was heading DIRECTLY at Fort Lauderdale.

That was the same year as Dennis--a HUGE storm that also snuggled up the FL coast before slapping at NC. Here's an impressive shot of Dennis I've kept around.

[IoCaster]

We headed in from EC-222 last night around midnight. Seas were running about 10-12ft. wind was NE 20-30knots. Made it to the FWB sea bouy 0530. Had a 1.5 hour wait at the FWB locks. Just arrived at Intracoastal City, LA about 1/2 hour ago. Hurricane warning from ICY to Morgan City. Winds are not bad right now approx. 15-20 knots here. Waiting for TS Bill to make landfall in the next few hours.

I'll try to give a live update when things get rough. At least as long as I can get a good siganl on my cellphone. I'm using a laptop/cellphone connection to post.

;o)

[Charles Martel]

In case anyone is interested, here is the strike probability graphic:

[dufekin]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 301440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

...Bill approaching the Louisiana coast, dangerous flood threat from rainfall and storm surge...

A hurricane watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana eastward to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from east of High Island, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi.

At 10 AM CDT, 1500Z, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.8 north, longitude 91.5 west, or about 50 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Bill is moving toward the north near 14 miles per hour and this motion is expected to bring the storm inland over Louisiana later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is still possible during the several hours remaining before landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 millibars, 29.56 inches of mercury.

Storm surge coastal flooding is expected to be about 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

Repeating the 10 AM CDT position, 28.8 n, 91.5 w. Movement toward, north near 14 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 60 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure, 1001 millibars.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

000
WTNT43 KNHC 301437
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

The initial motion estimate is 360/12. This motion is expected to bring the center across the coast and into south-central Louisiana in 12 hours. Thereafter the guidance is in close agreement about turning the remnant low over land toward the east as the storm encounters the westerlies. Therefore, the forecast track is similar to the previous advisory.

A recent recon aircraft reported that the central pressure has fallen to 1001 millibars. The maximum surface wind speed is increased to 50 knots based on a flight level wind of 66 knots southeast of the center. However, the wind speed can still increase during the several hours remaining before landfall.

Do not focus on the exact location of the center or the forecast track of the tropical cyclone since strong winds and heavy rains can be experienced well away from the center.

Forecaster Lawrence

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 30/1500Z 28.8N 91.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W 40 KT, INLAND
24HR VT 01/1200Z 32.7N 90.5W 30 KT, INLAND
36HR VT 02/0000Z 34.6N 88.7W 20 KT, INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT, INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT, INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z, INLAND

[dufekin]

Tornado warning now for Orleans and Saint John the Baptist parishes. Apparently significant flooding is in progress over southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans, which is below sea level.

[nana4bush]

Thanks for that graphic. I'm in the green area of NE La. Guess I will get out my duck shoes. And things are not looking good for that All Star Dixie Darlings softball tournament tonight and tomorrow for my granddaughter.

[ClearBlueSky]

I'm right on the Orleans/Metaire line. Our street is flooded, as are most in thearea, but they drain fast.A few gusts of wind, about 35mph, no thunder or lightning. It's not much of a storm, really. Things like this mislead people. A good strong tropical storm is worse than this. I've seen worse thunderstorms.

I really wish they'd wait to name these things until they have an enclosed eye. Minimally organized systems like this lead people to understimate real storms.
The only thing is the street flooding, and inconsiderate drivers who will go down streets and wash water into homes.
But then, that can happen every day in a strong thunderstorm here.
Yes, we are WAY below sea level. All rainwater has to be pumped out of the streets into canals and lakes. When those fill up= you just get out the pirogues.

[NautiNurse]

How are things going? Just looked at the radar, and there is a closed eye now. Seems he took a turn east, and they eye should pass over the New Orleans area.