Replies

000
WTNT43 KNHC 300830
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

There has not been a significant change in the cloud pattern associated with Bill. The low-level center is not clearly observed but it appears to be located to the south or southwest of the main area of convection. Initial intensity remains at 45 knots. Because The shear is forecast to relax and the ocean is warm, there is small window of opportunity for bill to become a minimal hurricane before landfall. A new recon will be in the area around 12 UTC.

Bill is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 12 knots. The cyclone is moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends from the Atlantic westward across Florida, and no significant change in motion is expected before landfall later today. Track guidance unanimously brings Bill northward to near the coast in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Bill or its remnants should turn more to the northeast as it becomes embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching short wave trough.

One should not focus on the center or the exact track of the tropical cyclone since strong winds and heavy rains can be experienced well away from the center.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast positions and max winds

Initial 30/0900z 27.6n 91.6w 45 kt
12hr vt 30/1800z 29.2n 91.7w 60 kt
24hr vt 01/0600z 32.0n 91.0w 25 kt, inland
36hr vt 01/1800z 34.0n 89.0w 20 kt, remnant low
48hr vt 02/0600z 35.0n 86.0w 20 kt, remnant low
72hr vt 03/0600z 36.0n 80.0w 20 kt, remnant low
96hr vt 04/0600z 37.0n 72.0w 20 kt, remnant low

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

...Bill heading for the Louisiana coast...

A hurricane watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana eastward to Morgan City, Louisiana. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from east of High Island, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 4 AM CDT, 0900Z, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 27.6 north, longitude 91.6 west, or about 130 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Bill is moving toward the north near 14 miles per hour this motion is expected to continue today. On this track, the center of the tropical cyclone will cross the Louisiana coast later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible before landfall and Bill could reach the coast as a hurricane. A reconnaissance plane will be in the area in a few hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars, 29.74 inches of mercury.

Storm surge coastal flooding is expected to be about 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

Heavy rainfall of 5 to 8 inches is expected later today as Bill approaches the southern coast of Louisiana.

Isolated tornados are possible over portions of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today.

Repeating the 4 AM CDT position, 27.6 n, 91.6 w. Movement toward, north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 AM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 AM CDT.

Forecaster Avila

Note: "there is a small window of opportunity for Bill to become a minimal hurricane before landfall." and the "hurricane watch"