Replies

000
WTNT33 KNHC 301440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

...Bill approaching the Louisiana coast, dangerous flood threat from rainfall and storm surge...

A hurricane watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana eastward to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from east of High Island, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi.

At 10 AM CDT, 1500Z, the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.8 north, longitude 91.5 west, or about 50 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.

Bill is moving toward the north near 14 miles per hour and this motion is expected to bring the storm inland over Louisiana later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is still possible during the several hours remaining before landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 millibars, 29.56 inches of mercury.

Storm surge coastal flooding is expected to be about 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.

Repeating the 10 AM CDT position, 28.8 n, 91.5 w. Movement toward, north near 14 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 60 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure, 1001 millibars.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

000
WTNT43 KNHC 301437
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

The initial motion estimate is 360/12. This motion is expected to bring the center across the coast and into south-central Louisiana in 12 hours. Thereafter the guidance is in close agreement about turning the remnant low over land toward the east as the storm encounters the westerlies. Therefore, the forecast track is similar to the previous advisory.

A recent recon aircraft reported that the central pressure has fallen to 1001 millibars. The maximum surface wind speed is increased to 50 knots based on a flight level wind of 66 knots southeast of the center. However, the wind speed can still increase during the several hours remaining before landfall.

Do not focus on the exact location of the center or the forecast track of the tropical cyclone since strong winds and heavy rains can be experienced well away from the center.

Forecaster Lawrence

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 30/1500Z 28.8N 91.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W 40 KT, INLAND
24HR VT 01/1200Z 32.7N 90.5W 30 KT, INLAND
36HR VT 02/0000Z 34.6N 88.7W 20 KT, INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT, INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT, INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z, INLAND