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Posted on 02/12/2026 10:55:42 AM PST by Wayne07
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers.
[...]
We highlight two main results. First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. This result means that a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices. Second, the tariff pass-through into import prices has declined in the latter part of the year. That is, a larger share of the tariff incidence was borne by foreign exporters by the end of the year. In November, a 10 percent tariff was associated with a 1.4 percent decline in foreign export prices, suggesting an 86 percent pass-through to U.S. import prices. Given that the average tariff in December was 13 percent (see the first chart), our results imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11 percent (13 times 0.86) more than those for goods not subject to tariffs. These higher import prices caused firms to reorganize supply chains, as suggested by the findings presented in the two charts above.
In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.
(Excerpt) Read more at libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org ...
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Tariffs may be necessary to rebuild US manufacturing, but they are a tax on US consumers.
DOW seems good.
Inflation seems good.
Hiring seems good.
Government revenue is up.
Tariffs are not destroying family budgets and are not killing the US economy.
You can argue “who is paying” but I don’t see how it matters.
But they are also tied into national security, since Trump uses them as leverage. They have been used to get better trade deals, lower fuel, etc. You really cannot look at Tariffs in isolation or just at the cost side of them.
Gee. Look at the source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Deep State (of which the Federal Reserve is just one component, IMO) is fighting back in every way it can to destroy Trump, because he his upsetting their status quo.
My entire adult life as a conservative has been lived according to what were once bedrock principles of conservatism:
1) The government is not responsible for providing you a job, an income, or anything else - it should exist solely to protect our individual liberties and in extreme cases (i.e., war) a common defense and,
2) Government intervention into economics never works. The market constrains and expands on its own, it self-corrects, and government can only create problems.
NOTHING I have seen alters those bedrock principles.
People are free to adopt alternate theories and uses for government - lord knows the leftists have made a career of it.
The one thing I would ask? Don’t call it conservatism. Because it’s not.
It doesn’t matter how you view them, tariffs are taxes
I can tell you who is NOT paying…Somali fraudsters in Minnesota!
“What do we consumers not pay for?”
You do not pay a tax, when there isn’t a tax.
It’s amazing how many things I’ve purchased in the last five years now cost two or three times as much.
“But they are also tied into national security, since Trump uses them as leverage. They have been used to get better trade deals, lower fuel, etc. You really cannot look at Tariffs in isolation or just at the cost side of them.”
100% agree, but don’t lie and say it isn’t a tax on US consumers. Don’t lie and say foreign governments or exporters pay the tariffs.
Eh…
US consumers are the most sophisticated consumers in the world - sifting, sorting, ranking too many choices to balance cost, value, benefits.
If they can afford, they buy
If they can’t afford they substitute it go without
If they don’t buy, the exporting firm suffers.
If they did buy, even with tariffs, they thought it was worth it.
Your post will be very unpopular. As for rebuilding U.S. manufacturing that is a valid and important goal but even getting the infrastructure in place to do so will take many years. I am also cynical enough to believe manufacturers know the next administration if Dem or even RINO will pull the rug out from them in regards to any monies promised by this administration to make staying or returning to the U.S. more palatable. These are not people who gamble on the unknown AFAIK.
This is a broken drum you beat on.
The less we need to buy overseas goods the less tariffs effect consumers.
Your chart does not agree with what I have seen about Chinese exporters eating 65% of the tariffs and American resellers also absorbing some of the loss.
It’s untenable to pretend that a moment in time is the whole answer and that any temporary dislocation means we just have to remain a hollowed out country with no supply chain security.
More is being made in the USA, more & more factories are being build, retooled, expanded and more steel and energy is being produced. If there are a few goods that are higher, like cheap Chinese clothes, the consumers will make choices. They are short term choices because furniture, clothing etc will come back to the USA once we are not being driven out of existence by state supported sweat shops. The decreased cost of energy and the rescue from the larget tax cut in history, the documented wage growth help offset the temporary issue of the small tariff cost to consumers.
I’ll take discretionary (meaning I can choose to or choose not to purchase item) taxes over Sales, Property, Income etc. (non discretionary taxes) all freakin day long.
Plus, the advantages of driving manufacturers BACK to US soil is well worth the inconvenience.
Only if you purchase imported items.
When other governments create imbalances in the economy, it’s important that our government intervene to offset said imbalances. In a perfect world, this wouldn’t be an issue.
“What do we consumers not pay for? “
The subject is not about what we pay for, but how much pay for the things we do pay for. And with tariffs we are paying more and that is attributable to what is not “eaten” by foreign exporters or our importers but what is passed on to us.
OK ... so I’m paying more for tariffed goods ... I’m also paying substantially less for gasoline than I was in 2024.
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