Posted on 10/27/2024 8:57:54 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten suggested Friday that Donald Trump could be on course to win the popular vote on November 5th.
That hasn’t happened for a Republican candidate for 20 years.
If it happens, Trump will almost certainly win the electoral college and the election.
Enten noted that a New York Times/Siena College poll was released last week showing Trump tied with Kamala Harris at 48% in the national popular vote.
“Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College, but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote, but Trump may finally get his great white whale,” Enten stated.
He added that Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls also have Trump ahead of Harris in the popular vote.
There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2016 or 2020.
He'd be the 1st Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years & only 2nd in 36 years. pic.twitter.com/Pp4LJPwUZe— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 25, 2024
“Part of my job is to warn our viewers, on either side of the aisle, of an event that may occur, that they don’t necessarily like, and Donald Trump winning the popular vote could ABSOLUTELY happen,” Enten urged.
He added “You might as well wrap your minds around it now folks if you don’t like Donald Trump,” noting that Democrat supporters heads are currently “exploding.”
The RCP average has Trump in the lead for the popular vote for the first time in his political career by two points.
🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump LEADS THE POPULAR VOTE for the first time in his political career heading into an election.
Trump trailed by over 2 points at the start of October.
pic.twitter.com/WJerjXBjqC — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024
If he did it, Trump would only be the second Republican in 36 years to win the popular vote.
#NEW 2024 election forecast based on most accurate poll of 2020
Electoral college:
🔴 Trump: 323 🏆
🔵 Harris: 215
Popular vote:
🔴 Trump: 50.7% (+3.1)
🔵 Harris: 47.6%
Battleground margins:
🔵 ME: Harris +2.5
🔵 VA: Harris +1.8
🔵 NH: Harris +0.8
🔴 MN: Trump +1.4
🔴 MI: : Trump +4.1
🔴 NV: Trump +4.8
🔴 PA: Trump +5.7
🔴 WI: Trump +6.4
🔴 AZ: Trump +6.7
🔴 GA: Trump +7.6
🔴 NC: Trump +8.1AtlasIntel | 10/12-17 | N=4,180LV
*Map calculated via Cook Political Report*
pic.twitter.com/xqi3hSWxPU — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 19, 2024
* * *
All is ready.
Do not slack off. Do not become overconfident. Continue to campaign (and vote) like your side is 20 points down but slowly gaining ground. The media is not above lying about this to make people complacent so they won’t turn out.
There’s no way there are that many illegals and dead people for Kamala where she’d even come close in the popular vote
Vote early and Vote often!!
I don’t believe any candidate has gotten over 53% in the last 50 years -
This is all great stuff but GET OUT THERE AND VOTE!
I think the tree-huggers will win the poplar vote.
Are you kidding? I’m SURE The Great One did in 1984.
GHW won 53.4% in 1988.
Reagan got 58% in 1984 and took 49 states and over 500 electoral votes. He only lost Minnesota and DC.
270 EVs is the only goal that matters but the popular vote would be a nice cherry on top.
Fingers crossed. Mom just requested mail ballot (even though four years ago she requested one for every election on account of disability...).
Of course, we are Trump voters in Allegheny County, PA, which makes me worry more about our votes being tossed out since it is a Democrat County...
Im starting to think for the democrats, their “Victory” is going to be winning the popular vote. They probably at this point see the electoral college as a lost cause.
But, if they do win the popular vote at least, they can keep bitching about the electoral college being unfair and undemocratic.
The popular vote means nothing.
It’s the Electoral that matters.
If that happens then Cruz wins Texas and WV, OH, MI, WI, PA, and MT Senate seats flip + GOP gains 10-25 seats in the House.
Now what nobody is talking about is what comes next in 2026 and 2028. If 1894 and 1896 are any indicators then here is what is in store:
Almost half of the President’s party’s House seats lost in the midterms.
Cross of Gold speech at the convention in2028 and president kicked out of his own party officially.
If Trump wins he needs to keep his eye on the ball and think about the long term. In 1893 the country has a major economic panic. It could next year too. It would not be the first time that happened to a non consecutive terms President. And just to be clear - America survived the Panic of 1893.
Yeah...and yet even with that historical popular vote margin, the Democrats STILL kept the house by a big margin. If that isn’t a testament to gerrymandering ...I dont know what is.
Something else to consider - the Dems have a very limited talent bench, many of whom will likely pass away in the near future. That’s part of why they are so desperate.
And MN teetered on the edge all night. It was the only suspense that election.
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