Posted on 10/24/2024 8:35:04 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn
I wrote about the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll on Wednesday, which was bad for Vice President Kamala Harris, and how that's started to bring even the popular vote within potential reach of former President Donald Trump.
But the new Wall Street Journal poll is even more devastating for her and great for Trump.
That poll now has Trump up by three, head-to-head, 49 to 46 percent. It's moved four points toward Trump over the past month. In the full field, that's 47 to 45 percent.
That's in line with HarrisX (+2 for Trump) and Rasmussen (+3 for Trump), and that's not even counting her latest mess in the CNN town hall.
The other tale is the approval ratings.
Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance.
By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his performance in office—a 4-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris.
So Trump has over 50 percent approval at 52 percent, while Harris is underwater, 10 points lower than Trump. Trump's numbers have moved to the highest point they've been in this election cycle and hers to the lowest, at 42 percent, with 54 percent disapproving.
Moreover, on the most important issue of the economy, Trump has the edge.
Moreover, voters give Trump a solid edge in most cases when asked about the candidates’ agendas and policies. By 10 points, more voters have a favorable than unfavorable view of Trump’s economic plan for the country, while unfavorable views of Harris’s economic plan outweigh positive views by 4 points.
What does the mean for the Real Clear Politics average? It's at 0.2 for the national vote, essentially a tie.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to lead all the battleground states, with 0.9 overall.
Now you know why they're breaking out the Hitler smear jobs and October surprises — because it looks like it's slipping away from her. But that's only likely to make things worse as the voters see that desperation.
Remember also that at this point in 2020, Joe Biden was up 8.1 percent in the national vote, and Hillary Clinton was up 5.5 in 2016. In the final result, Hillary was up 2.1 percent and she lost the Electoral College.
Even with that, it can't be said enough: Assume nothing and get everyone out to vote.
Yep, needs to be too big to rig
National Vote doesn’t matter. This is not a popularity contest for Highschool Class President.............
It matters because it removes one of their huge talking points afterwards. People in solid republican areas should still vote to assist the national number and for state and local races. De Jure, it does not matter. But in reality it does as it takes away a slander the left loves. And each small slander weakens our position during the term... as people start to yammer about a “mandate”.
“too big to rig”
Amen.
Yep. At some point, a tidal wave cannot be resisted by fraud.
And a big enough wave also sends an unmistakable quiet message about the ultimate well-being of the fraudsters.
“National Vote doesn’t matter.”
Exactly right.
From the article: “Trump continues to lead all the battleground states, with 0.9 overall.”
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 219 projected in the Electoral College, CommieLa at 215, and Toss-ups at 104. Factoring in the way the toss-up states are leaning, they project Trump at 312 electoral votes and CommieLa at 226.
As 1Old Pro commented: “it can’t be said enough: Assume nothing and get everyone out to vote.”
Willie almost broke her back. He also wore out her knees.
“What does the mean for the Real Clear Politics average? It’s at 0.2 for the national vote, essentially a tie.”
An “AVERAGE” of OLD, both worthy and unworthy polls.
Look at the 1992 election at RCP. They had it a close race with many states shown as “leaning” Bush.
If my memory is correct every state leaning Bush went to Clinton and Bush lost.
If Trump doesn’t lead by at least 10 points, the Democrats will steal the election.
While true the “popular” vote doesn’t determine the winner.
It is important that Trump win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
This provides a “mandate” that the media and Democrat Party can not deny nor ignore.
Well done
KEEP PRAYING!!!
Sure they will. They will say that Trump stole the election, that he's not legit, that he's a felon, whatever it takes to rile up their useful idiots.
If Trump is within 2.5 percent of Harris in the national vote he will win the Electoral College. If he is up, or less than 2 behind, it will be a landslide in the Electoral College.
I think for Trump to win the national “popular vote” would be a powerful political event. Enough of this squabbling about the electoral college from the left. They will use the disparity as a reason to gut the federalist inspiration of the EC, and go “democratic” with the popular vote determining the winner.
With CA, NY and MA alone having an excess rat vote of over 8 million (in 2020) it would mean the end of the road for most states to have any say. It would strengthen our system against attack if Trump can bring both votes into alignment.
I believe that this is the quadrennial correction of the push polls.
If the polls suddenly turn much more pro-Trump, the reason will be that the Ds have decided that cheating won’t work, so they won’t try.
Current poll numbers have the cheating margin baked in.
-PJ
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