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Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years
Brownstone Institute ^ | 10/9/24 | EJ Antoni and Peter St Onge

Posted on 10/09/2024 1:04:17 PM PDT by CFW

Many have questioned the accuracy of official inflation statistics, with dozens of academic papers written on the topic and doubts voiced by sources ranging from the New York Times1 to former President Donald Trump.

This matters not only because of the political salience of rising prices, but also because official inflation numbers are used to calculate real economic growth by adjusting nominal dollars to inflation-adjusted dollars.

In this study we aim to quantify some of the more egregious biases in inflation statistics in order to get us closer to a true understanding of inflation since 2019, hence of true economic growth since 2019.

[snip]

The government metrics for inflation suffer from various problems which tend to underestimate the rise in prices over time. These shortcomings have been more pronounced over the last four years during a relatively rapid depreciation of the currency. This study does not attempt to address difficulties concerning measuring the nominal value of economic activity but instead offers an alternative adjustment for converting nominal growth to real growth by more accurately reflecting changes in the cost of living over time.

[snip]

These conclusions are in stark contrast to the establishment narrative that the US economy is enjoying robust growth that for some reason the public is incapable of perceiving. Indeed, our results are consistent with the perceptions of the American public, of whom a majority believe we are in recession.

(Excerpt) Read more at brownstone.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: bidenomics; economy; inflation; recession
The authors say we have been in a recession since 2022 but the government bureaucrats have been fudging the numbers to hide that information.

I tend to believe they are correct.

1 posted on 10/09/2024 1:04:17 PM PDT by CFW
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To: CFW

Let me see.. Hmmmm... Who has been in the White House for the past four years?


2 posted on 10/09/2024 1:07:37 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants ("Gays for Gaza is like Chickens for KFC"- B. Netanyahu )
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To: CFW
In my opinion and in my experience of running a small service oriented business, I can point to a quiet recession starting in the third quarter of 2023.

Of this I have no doubt.

3 posted on 10/09/2024 1:08:35 PM PDT by frogjerk
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To: CFW

The Yield Curve’s ‘Infallible’ Recession Signal Failed This Time
Oct. 04, 2024 10:35 AM
James Picerno

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725032-yield-curves-infallible-recession-signal-failed-this-time


4 posted on 10/09/2024 1:12:08 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire, or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

Doesn’t this article basically state the yield curve indicator was infact, correct?


5 posted on 10/09/2024 1:32:21 PM PDT by frogjerk
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To: Blood of Tyrants

...Zero?


6 posted on 10/09/2024 1:37:06 PM PDT by JJBookman (Democrats = Party of losers)
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To: CFW

This coincides with United States ISM Manufacturing PMI, which shows our manufacturing sector in contraction since Oct 2022. It had been trending down prior to that since Biden took office, albeit still in expansion territory thanks to the Trump administration.


7 posted on 10/09/2024 1:39:51 PM PDT by Mr. Mohasky (Common sense in a world lacking any, will be perceived & construed as an extreme point of view.)
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To: CFW

Trying to read and understand this stuff showed how out of date my BS, MBA and this soon to be 86 year old, are.


8 posted on 10/09/2024 1:45:02 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (We have no shortage of so-called experts! Americas the most useless aristocrats in history!)
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To: CFW

later


9 posted on 10/09/2024 2:12:01 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)
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To: frogjerk

I think there’s some kind of disagreement between the two articles, but I might be wrong.


10 posted on 10/09/2024 2:13:40 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire, or both.)
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To: CFW

My prediction is that someone honest will be in charge of the government in 2025.
Further, I predict that the government will then admit that the economic numbers are not good, and that we are in a recession.
Lastly, I predict that the media will trumpet the news that Donald Trump is responsible for the world’s longest recession, which has lasted from 2022 into at least January of 2025.


11 posted on 10/09/2024 2:13:52 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (My decisions about people are based almost entirely on skin color. I learned this from Democrats.)
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To: CFW

[Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years]

Democrat Joe Bidenomics


12 posted on 10/09/2024 2:17:50 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
[Let me see.. Hmmmm... Who has been in the White House for the past four years?]

Seems like some Democrats trying to wreck America like Manchurian Candidate Barack Hussein Obama

Oh yeah....Democrat Joe Biden and

Democrat Kamala Harris


Good thing our Southern Border is secure under Democrat Joe Biden!

All according to plan.




13 posted on 10/09/2024 2:20:13 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
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*


14 posted on 10/09/2024 2:38:56 PM PDT by PMAS (Vote with your wallets, there are 80 million of us - No China made, No Amazon)
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To: CFW

Easy to believe: In early 2020 Rat Party Governors,with the help of a few Trump hating RINO Governors,brought the economy to its knees with their criminal lock downs in anticipation of the election...and it’s been downhill since then.


15 posted on 10/09/2024 4:55:29 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Import The Third World,Become The Third World)
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