Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years

Brownstone Institute ^ | 10/9/24 | EJ Antoni and Peter St Onge

[CFW]

Many have questioned the accuracy of official inflation statistics, with dozens of academic papers written on the topic and doubts voiced by sources ranging from the New York Times1 to former President Donald Trump.

This matters not only because of the political salience of rising prices, but also because official inflation numbers are used to calculate real economic growth by adjusting nominal dollars to inflation-adjusted dollars.

In this study we aim to quantify some of the more egregious biases in inflation statistics in order to get us closer to a true understanding of inflation since 2019, hence of true economic growth since 2019.

[snip]

The government metrics for inflation suffer from various problems which tend to underestimate the rise in prices over time. These shortcomings have been more pronounced over the last four years during a relatively rapid depreciation of the currency. This study does not attempt to address difficulties concerning measuring the nominal value of economic activity but instead offers an alternative adjustment for converting nominal growth to real growth by more accurately reflecting changes in the cost of living over time.

[snip]

These conclusions are in stark contrast to the establishment narrative that the US economy is enjoying robust growth that for some reason the public is incapable of perceiving. Indeed, our results are consistent with the perceptions of the American public, of whom a majority believe we are in recession.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: bidenomics; economy; inflation; recession

[CFW]

The authors say we have been in a recession since 2022 but the government bureaucrats have been fudging the numbers to hide that information.

I tend to believe they are correct.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Let me see.. Hmmmm... Who has been in the White House for the past four years?

[frogjerk]

In my opinion and in my experience of running a small service oriented business, I can point to a quiet recession starting in the third quarter of 2023.

Of this I have no doubt.

[BenLurkin]

The Yield Curve’s ‘Infallible’ Recession Signal Failed This Time
Oct. 04, 2024 10:35 AM
James Picerno

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725032-yield-curves-infallible-recession-signal-failed-this-time

[frogjerk]

Doesn’t this article basically state the yield curve indicator was infact, correct?

[JJBookman]

...Zero?

[Mr. Mohasky]

This coincides with United States ISM Manufacturing PMI, which shows our manufacturing sector in contraction since Oct 2022. It had been trending down prior to that since Biden took office, albeit still in expansion territory thanks to the Trump administration.

[Grampa Dave]

Trying to read and understand this stuff showed how out of date my BS, MBA and this soon to be 86 year old, are.

[Gay State Conservative]

later

[BenLurkin]

I think there’s some kind of disagreement between the two articles, but I might be wrong.

[ClearCase_guy]

My prediction is that someone honest will be in charge of the government in 2025.
Further, I predict that the government will then admit that the economic numbers are not good, and that we are in a recession.
Lastly, I predict that the media will trumpet the news that Donald Trump is responsible for the world’s longest recession, which has lasted from 2022 into at least January of 2025.

[SaveFerris]

[Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years]

Democrat Joe Bidenomics

[SaveFerris]

[Let me see.. Hmmmm... Who has been in the White House for the past four years?]

Seems like some Democrats trying to wreck America like Manchurian Candidate Barack Hussein Obama

Oh yeah....Democrat Joe Biden and

Democrat Kamala Harris

Good thing our Southern Border is secure under Democrat Joe Biden!

All according to plan.

[PMAS]

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