I just checked RCP
Posted on 09/18/2024 8:01:06 PM PDT by thegagline
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
***
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.***
Harris’ strongest backing comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, voters 65 and over, college graduates and women. She’s narrowly ahead in union households, a group that Biden won by low double-digits. Her numbers also still trail his 2020 pre-election numbers a bit among Blacks and young voters. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Of course, all the media claimed there was no evidence of “Haitians eating pets”, making Trump look like a liar. Even Vance was vague when asked about it. The comment should not have been made if there was no documentation.
“Trump wins easily as most reasonable people know”
Since you “know” the result, you should make yourself rich in betting markets, where Kamala is now favored.
I saw Trump down only 14 in NY last month, perhaps he’s fallen further behind since then.
Next week, they will announce that she is the winner.
You know if was a betting man i would but get yours
Republicans tend to concentrate their ad buys closer to the election. Most of Harris’s current poll gains represent a consolidation of the base Democratic vote behind her, especially after the debate. Independents and undecideds continue to trend toward Trump.
Trump is only campaigning in CA & NY for two reasons:
1) To keep the House seats of vulnerable Republicans in districts that went for Biden in 2020.
2) To raise money.
You’ll see more action in the battle ground states starting next week.
The same two trolls applaud the gaslighting media quite frequently around here.
I just checked RCP
We will know the polls are really down when she agrees to a second debate—on Trumps Terms! Moderators Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly.
We spent the weekend in a small town in western Michigan, and there were quite Harris supporters. Every place we ate at, I could hear voices from the other tables talking great things about Harris. This was a very White town too, north of Benton Harlem.
For starters, a quick review of the margin of error (MOE) table reveals the truth. The article asserts the following:
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way.
However, as a group the MOE among Hispanics in this poll is 8.0%, while the overall MOE for the entire sample is 3.0%. The MOE is even worse for Blacks at 9.0%. For comparison, the MOE for Whites is 3.5%. This is probably because the White population is at least four times the size of the Hispanic and Black populations. Any conclusions regarding trend movements within the Hispanic and Black populations that are within the MOE should be taken with suspicion.
For Independents, the MOE is 7.0%, but it is 4.5% for both Republicans and Democrats.
Also, the overall sample size is pretty small for a national poll, even comparing back to the prior Fox News poll (of registered voters).
Here is a review of the sample sizes for the most recent Likely/Registered Voter polls:
| Polling Group | Sample Size |
|---|---|
| Fox News | 676 LV |
| ABC News/Ipsos | 2,772 RV |
| Atlas Intel | 1,775 LV |
| Yahoo News | 1,090 LV |
| Data For Progress | 1,283 LV |
| Morning Consult | 11,022 LV |
| Forbes/HarrisX | 3,018 RV |
| TIPP | 1,721 RV |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 1,405 RV |
| New York Post | 1,174 LV |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2,390 LV |
| New York Times/Siena | 1,695 LV |
| Harvard-Harris | 2,358 RV |
| NPR/PBS/Marist | 1,413 RV |
| Pew Research | 8,044 RV |
| Wall Street Journal | 1,500 RV |
| Emerson | 1,000 LV |
| Quinnipiac | 1,611 LV |
| Fox News (August) | 1,105 RV |
I wouldn't put too much credence in this poll. It looks like Fox News had to manipulate the sample size to get this outcome.
-PJ
That leaves only 15% for Independents. Aren’t they the largest group?
They must have used Cheney’s phone contacts to find Republicans to poll.
Good summation of who Sean Hannity is. He and a number of other right leaning people in the media I refer to as CAPS (Conservatives to a Point). Hannity will push the political envelope but won’t open it. He’ll spout off the conservative talking points our side wants to hear but won’t push so hard to really expose the bad actors in DC.
I finally got fed up with Hannity when he would have the ultimate DC Cabal Repuke Lindsey Graham on both his radio and FOX News show constantly. Laura Ingraham is another one on FNC who follows the Hannity model. It doesn’t make them bad people for our side, but at the end of the day they know the Murdoch family “butters their bread”, and they will back off from exposing both RINOs and Democrats and their misdeeds in DC to the fullest.
I see the BS is ramping up.
For whatever reason, Murdoch hates Trump.
The ones who roll out this poll are mindful of who signs their checks.
Teamsters rank-and-file prefer Trump over Harris 59% to 34% in an electronic poll and 58% to 31% in a phone poll, per union internal numbers.
The Faux poll has always been notoriously wrong. Just not credible.
When asked who they trust to handle top issues, voters favor Trump on immigration (+10), the Israel-Hamas war (+7) and the economy (+5). Since being first asked this question in March, his advantage on the economy is down 10 points compared to his 15-point lead over Biden and down 8 points on immigration (was +18).
Laughable numbers.
Anyone believing this poll on its face need to go to therapy.
Claiming a 20 point swing in independents and an 18 point swing by Hispanics is flat out insanity.
This makes me sick. So hard to believe yet disgusting.
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