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When we look at the trend shown in Figure 1, and at the ending polling disparity (2.4%), it is hard to see how Hobbs managed to win.
1 posted on 11/25/2022 8:15:28 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Polling error?

Of course, polls could have been wrong all along. However, that seems unlikely, given the consistency of the results in a number of polls, administered by many different polling organizations. For the Lake-Hobbs contest, the results displayed by FiveThirtyEight came from 13 different polling organizations, as shown in Figure 2. Only one (Marist) had Hobbs winning:

Figure 2: Lake-Hobbs polling organizations and results

Did 12 out of 13 companies make the same error, and in the same direction?

We see the same pattern with the senatorial contests. Figure 3 displays the final polling averages, as produced by RealClearPolitics, for seven key races. In each case the GOP candidate was leading just before the election, even though these races were in different states and conducted by different pollsters, and for different candidates. This pattern does not suggest polling error. The actual election results (courtesy of Reuters) are also shown.

Three of the seven contests were won by Republicans, but look deeper. In every case, the Democrat candidate’s election results were sharply higher than the final polling percentage. For the most part, that was not the case for Republicans, as we can see in the right-side columns in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Senatorial polling versus results

Figure 4, below, presents the same information in graphic form. Keep your eye on the “zero” line. It shows the expected results for both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats are entirely above the “expected” line, signifying that they beat the predictions in every case. On the other hand, Republicans are much lower, and mostly below the expected line.

Figure 4: Senatorial polling results, shown graphically

Before we address ballot-harvesting, let’s summarize: Perhaps I missed it, but it seems there was no last minute erosion of support for GOP candidates. And polling error is unlikely, given that the GOP lead was shown by many different pollsters, in different states, and for different candidates. Yet, the Democrat candidates consistently beat expectations by quite a lot. Why was that?

Ballot-harvesting

It is just a theory, but I believe that aggressive ballot-harvesting is the most likely explanation for the disparity between pollster predictions and actual results in the 2022 midterm elections. In the movie, 2,000 Mules, True the Vote (TTV), the organization run by Catharine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips, described the prevalence of ballot-harvesting in the 2020 election. Although its estimates are only rough approximations (based on cell phone analysis), TTV believes there were up to 200,000 and 275,000 harvested ballots in Arizona and Pennsylvania, respectively. Nevada was not included in the TTV analysis, but since the end of 2020, Nevada has taken all restrictions off of harvesting. It is now legal to harvest ballots in Nevada, and it can be done anonymously in any quantity with ballots from unregistered homeless people, drug addicts— anyone. [Editor's note: See also phantom voting, previously published at American Thinker by contributor Jay Valentine, here and here.]

When it comes to the legality of ballot-harvesting, there is confusion. As noted, it is now completely legal in the state of Nevada. In most other swing states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona, it is (technically) allowed only within tight limitations (e.g., for family members). That said, large-scale harvesting operations have been performed in many states, and I believe they often lead to serious election law violations. There are three reasons for this:

  1. In some states, administrators ignore the practice, and may even see it as “empowering” for voters in “marginalized communities.”
  2. It is very easy to cheat when ballots are returned via mail or drop boxes without a hard identification requirement.
  3. Harvesters are usually paid “per piece,” and have incentives to find or steal as many ballots as possible.

2 posted on 11/25/2022 8:17:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
2020 was "proof-of-concept".

2022 was "engineered" for specific outcomes.

Once 2020 showed that they could do it "in your face" and get away with it, it was on to the next phase.

3 posted on 11/25/2022 8:22:33 PM PST by kiryandil (put yer vote in the box, chump. HARHARHARHAR)
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To: SeekAndFind

All of the factors combined would not account for the strange outcomes we saw, except for one: massive statistical anomalies and 6-sigma “coincidence” that all speak to huge Dem cheating and electoral fraud.

Some say that the Dems have mastered all the new post-COVID voting law and rule changes better than the Reps. But all the during-COVID and post-COVID changes were done for one reason only — to enable massive Dem cheating and fraud. There are no two ways about it.


4 posted on 11/25/2022 8:24:24 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (If you're not part of the solution, you're just scumming up the bottom of the beaker!)
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To: SeekAndFind

So what is the GOP or the Trump campaign going to do about it ? It’s a proven winner for Democrats. They don’t have to come out of the basement. They don’t have to debate their opponents. They don’t have to do *anything*. Just Rest & Harvest. And boom - they are declared winners.


8 posted on 11/25/2022 8:30:35 PM PST by libh8er
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To: SeekAndFind
Young people are woke. So they bought into the propaganda of the Democratic Party.

The abortion issue motivated suburban women to vote Democratic and the Republicans did not do a good job communicating the Roe vs Wade decision. The Democrats used ballot harvesting so they were able to "bank" their votes in early. We need to go to nursing homes and find every Republican voter. Don't wait until Election Day. You might get sick. Or you might get in a car accident.

10 posted on 11/25/2022 8:31:58 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: SeekAndFind

It was a nice country we used to have.


11 posted on 11/25/2022 8:33:01 PM PST by Antoninus (Republicans are all honorable men.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Democrats cried and cried about “the end of democracy.”

They got the end of democracy.

And they couldn’t be happier.


16 posted on 11/25/2022 8:38:09 PM PST by Scott from the Left Coast (Make Orwell Fiction Again)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t believe for one second Hobbs won, not for a second.

Other losses were obvious from the start, like OZ in PA…

But Kari? Nope not for one second.

Flagrant theft


20 posted on 11/25/2022 8:48:11 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: SeekAndFind

Arizona / Pennsylvania / Nevada - failed states bump for later..


22 posted on 11/25/2022 8:49:26 PM PST by indthkr
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To: SeekAndFind
The author wishes is to fight a street fight, by observing Marquis of Queensbury rules. "Someday, a whistleblower may step forward to provide hard evidence."

The evidence has been provided. Nothing was done.

23 posted on 11/25/2022 8:49:45 PM PST by Eagles6 (Welcome to the Matrix . Orwell's "1984" was a warning, not an instruction manual.)
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To: SeekAndFind

There was a massive red wave. The democrats did massive in your face cheating. About 15 million Republican votes were disappeared and almost as many democrat votes were created out of thin air. 2018 and 2020 were just warm ups.


25 posted on 11/25/2022 8:53:23 PM PST by Revolutionary ("Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!")
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To: SeekAndFind

Those who cannot see that 2020 and 2022 were stolen are either hopelessly high on drugs or severely retarded. Or they could just be stinking, lowlife Nazis and Communists. To all the ignorant morons who voted for RATS in 2022, America is still going in the wrong direction thanks to you ignorant bastards.


34 posted on 11/25/2022 9:52:20 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (You can vote your way into socialism but you have to shoot your way out. Remember that Snowflakes!)
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To: null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; bitt; ...

p


35 posted on 11/25/2022 10:12:04 PM PST by bitt (<img src=' 'width=50%>)
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To: SeekAndFind

Cheating


39 posted on 11/25/2022 11:47:00 PM PST by Baldwin77 (Super, Duper, Ultra Maga, subject of the Ultra Maga King Donald)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’d like to see nationwide county by county and/or precinct data on votes submitted (ostensibly) by Dem, Pubbie and Independents via mail-In, Absentee and election day voters.

Voters are listed for each election they voted in (at least in Florida) for years. I do wonder how the numbers would add up.

95% returns from anywhere would deserve looking into. A lot of interesting views might become apparent.

See how the percentages come in by precinct by party registrations in that district.


40 posted on 11/25/2022 11:48:13 PM PST by Tunehead54 (nothing funny here ;-)
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To: SeekAndFind

The election in Maricopa County, AZ was either rigged or so flawed that a new election should be mandated. 20% of ballot readers “breakdown” all at once on election day, ballots are lost, commingled or mysteriously appear. The counting goes on for more than a week. There is ample evidence that the vote was flawed and many voters were denied their right to vote. However, as in the 2020 election it’s move along citizen nothing to see here. Sad it may now take a violent revolution to restore our republic as the free election process has now been destroyed.


44 posted on 11/26/2022 4:11:00 AM PST by The Great RJ
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To: SeekAndFind

it is hard to see how Hobbs managed to win.


Hobbs was in charge of counting the votes ... she was a shoo in.


45 posted on 11/26/2022 4:29:05 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Katie Hobbs was roundly criticized for her deer-in-the-headlights interviews...”

??? Certainly he’s not talking about the awesome interviews where she schools the libtard media.


46 posted on 11/26/2022 4:34:04 AM PST by Lee'sGhost ("Just look at the flowers, Lizzie. Just look at the flowers.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Institutionally, the left owns the electoral process. Couple that with voter rolls that are never cleaned up (e.g., dead voters, moved voters), mail in voting and aggressive ballot harvesting and you get results like observed in AZ. Republicans are delusional enough to think that getting better at ballot harvesting will improve their chances.
They are not called the stupid party for nothing.


47 posted on 11/26/2022 5:46:16 AM PST by No Party Affiliation
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To: SeekAndFind

Fourth: Fraud!


48 posted on 11/26/2022 6:09:52 AM PST by wintertime ( Behind every government school teacher stand armed police.( Real bullets in those guns on the hip!))
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