Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data

For many Republicans, the final midterm election results were surprising— especially in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Based on polling, it looked likely that Kari Lake, Adam Laxalt, and Mehmet Oz would win their contests. I believe that there are only three likely explanations for the unexpected results: late campaign surges, polling error, or aggressive ballot-harvesting.

A late surge?

Some Republicans are falling for an illogical narrative put forth by Democrats and the mainstream media. It goes like this: Although Republican candidates were higher in the polls, at the last minute people voted for Democrats because:

they feared the end of democracy
they hated Donald Trump
they were angered by the Dobbs abortion decision
they saw more anti-Republican campaign ads, due to financing differences
they were turned off by fighting during the primaries
they weren’t impressed by the poor quality GOP candidates

Certainly, these were real and very potent factors for many if not all Democrats, and for some independents. However, they were all “baked into the cake” long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.

I can think of a couple significant last-minute campaign developments, but they worked against the Democrats— not for them. Many pundits thought John Fetterman’s late October debate performance would put him into a political death spiral. Indeed, he was polling lower than Oz, just before the election. However, he ended up winning by over 4 points— somehow.

And Katie Hobbs was roundly criticized for her deer-in-the-headlights interviews near the end of the campaign. Just before the election, Hobbs was polling substantially below Lake, yet she won. Lake’s pre-election dominance is evident from the polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight:

Figure 1: Lake-Hobbs polling trends Oct 1 to Nov 8

“ take the top population counties in each state, and rig them in favor of the JoeTatoe”

And that’s where the trick is. They don’t even have to win the high “turnout” counties by a wide margin. Even a slim margin would do because the total count is so high, a small percentage difference of a high number translates to a huge number of raw votes for Democrats. That wipes out any advantage republicans have in smaller counties. They could even afford to dump fake Republican votes into the mix to make it look natural !

I’d like to see nationwide county by county and/or precinct data on votes submitted (ostensibly) by Dem, Pubbie and Independents via mail-In, Absentee and election day voters.

Voters are listed for each election they voted in (at least in Florida) for years. I do wonder how the numbers would add up.

95% returns from anywhere would deserve looking into. A lot of interesting views might become apparent.

See how the percentages come in by precinct by party registrations in that district.

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