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Surprised by the Midterm Election Results? Take a Look at the Data
American Thinker ^ | 11/25/2022 | Joe Fried

Posted on 11/25/2022 8:15:28 PM PST by SeekAndFind

For many Republicans, the final midterm election results were surprising— especially in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Based on polling, it looked likely that Kari Lake, Adam Laxalt, and Mehmet Oz would win their contests. I believe that there are only three likely explanations for the unexpected results: late campaign surges, polling error, or aggressive ballot-harvesting.

A late surge?

Some Republicans are falling for an illogical narrative put forth by Democrats and the mainstream media. It goes like this: Although Republican candidates were higher in the polls, at the last minute people voted for Democrats because:

Certainly, these were real and very potent factors for many if not all Democrats, and for some independents. However, they were all “baked into the cake” long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.

I can think of a couple significant last-minute campaign developments, but they worked against the Democrats— not for them. Many pundits thought John Fetterman’s late October debate performance would put him into a political death spiral. Indeed, he was polling lower than Oz, just before the election. However, he ended up winning by over 4 points— somehow.

And Katie Hobbs was roundly criticized for her deer-in-the-headlights interviews near the end of the campaign. Just before the election, Hobbs was polling substantially below Lake, yet she won. Lake’s pre-election dominance is evident from the polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight:

Figure 1: Lake-Hobbs polling trends Oct 1 to Nov 8


(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2022; 2022election; data; midterms
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When we look at the trend shown in Figure 1, and at the ending polling disparity (2.4%), it is hard to see how Hobbs managed to win.
1 posted on 11/25/2022 8:15:28 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Polling error?

Of course, polls could have been wrong all along. However, that seems unlikely, given the consistency of the results in a number of polls, administered by many different polling organizations. For the Lake-Hobbs contest, the results displayed by FiveThirtyEight came from 13 different polling organizations, as shown in Figure 2. Only one (Marist) had Hobbs winning:

Figure 2: Lake-Hobbs polling organizations and results

Did 12 out of 13 companies make the same error, and in the same direction?

We see the same pattern with the senatorial contests. Figure 3 displays the final polling averages, as produced by RealClearPolitics, for seven key races. In each case the GOP candidate was leading just before the election, even though these races were in different states and conducted by different pollsters, and for different candidates. This pattern does not suggest polling error. The actual election results (courtesy of Reuters) are also shown.

Three of the seven contests were won by Republicans, but look deeper. In every case, the Democrat candidate’s election results were sharply higher than the final polling percentage. For the most part, that was not the case for Republicans, as we can see in the right-side columns in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Senatorial polling versus results

Figure 4, below, presents the same information in graphic form. Keep your eye on the “zero” line. It shows the expected results for both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats are entirely above the “expected” line, signifying that they beat the predictions in every case. On the other hand, Republicans are much lower, and mostly below the expected line.

Figure 4: Senatorial polling results, shown graphically

Before we address ballot-harvesting, let’s summarize: Perhaps I missed it, but it seems there was no last minute erosion of support for GOP candidates. And polling error is unlikely, given that the GOP lead was shown by many different pollsters, in different states, and for different candidates. Yet, the Democrat candidates consistently beat expectations by quite a lot. Why was that?

Ballot-harvesting

It is just a theory, but I believe that aggressive ballot-harvesting is the most likely explanation for the disparity between pollster predictions and actual results in the 2022 midterm elections. In the movie, 2,000 Mules, True the Vote (TTV), the organization run by Catharine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips, described the prevalence of ballot-harvesting in the 2020 election. Although its estimates are only rough approximations (based on cell phone analysis), TTV believes there were up to 200,000 and 275,000 harvested ballots in Arizona and Pennsylvania, respectively. Nevada was not included in the TTV analysis, but since the end of 2020, Nevada has taken all restrictions off of harvesting. It is now legal to harvest ballots in Nevada, and it can be done anonymously in any quantity with ballots from unregistered homeless people, drug addicts— anyone. [Editor's note: See also phantom voting, previously published at American Thinker by contributor Jay Valentine, here and here.]

When it comes to the legality of ballot-harvesting, there is confusion. As noted, it is now completely legal in the state of Nevada. In most other swing states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona, it is (technically) allowed only within tight limitations (e.g., for family members). That said, large-scale harvesting operations have been performed in many states, and I believe they often lead to serious election law violations. There are three reasons for this:

  1. In some states, administrators ignore the practice, and may even see it as “empowering” for voters in “marginalized communities.”
  2. It is very easy to cheat when ballots are returned via mail or drop boxes without a hard identification requirement.
  3. Harvesters are usually paid “per piece,” and have incentives to find or steal as many ballots as possible.

2 posted on 11/25/2022 8:17:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
2020 was "proof-of-concept".

2022 was "engineered" for specific outcomes.

Once 2020 showed that they could do it "in your face" and get away with it, it was on to the next phase.

3 posted on 11/25/2022 8:22:33 PM PST by kiryandil (put yer vote in the box, chump. HARHARHARHAR)
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To: SeekAndFind

All of the factors combined would not account for the strange outcomes we saw, except for one: massive statistical anomalies and 6-sigma “coincidence” that all speak to huge Dem cheating and electoral fraud.

Some say that the Dems have mastered all the new post-COVID voting law and rule changes better than the Reps. But all the during-COVID and post-COVID changes were done for one reason only — to enable massive Dem cheating and fraud. There are no two ways about it.


4 posted on 11/25/2022 8:24:24 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (If you're not part of the solution, you're just scumming up the bottom of the beaker!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Bkmk


5 posted on 11/25/2022 8:24:40 PM PST by sauropod (Fascists also buy Comcast cable packages" - Olby - Wanna buy mine?)
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To: SeekAndFind

.
The Elections have a similar look.

Count every vote until the Democrat is ahead.

And the Networks (including FOX) locked hands to say what’s really important this time - is for no one to question any Election.

It’s not the Robbery, what’s important is that the store owners don’t report the Robbery.

Sick stuff

.


6 posted on 11/25/2022 8:24:57 PM PST by AnthonySoprano (Statute of Limitations is going to elapse on Hunter Biden )
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To: kiryandil
Bingo, and the reason why I don't watch “continue with election fraud” Varney!
7 posted on 11/25/2022 8:26:17 PM PST by Chgogal (Welcome to Fuhrer Biden's Weaponized Fascist Banana Republic! It's the road to hell..)
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To: SeekAndFind

So what is the GOP or the Trump campaign going to do about it ? It’s a proven winner for Democrats. They don’t have to come out of the basement. They don’t have to debate their opponents. They don’t have to do *anything*. Just Rest & Harvest. And boom - they are declared winners.


8 posted on 11/25/2022 8:30:35 PM PST by libh8er
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To: SeekAndFind
My "Obama 2008 Vote Fraud Detection" tool:

Compare Obama's record 2008 turnout by county to the JoeTatoe's 2020 "turnout" by county in each state.

This will show you where they rigged the votes.

A secondary piece of the tool:

Once you have the 2008 to 2020 comparison, THEN you back-compare to Hillary 2016 by county.

You'll see where they failed in 2016, and exactly how they decided to "fortify" Basement Joek's "election".

They used a brute-force IT method - take the top population counties in each state, and rig them in favor of the JoeTatoe.

It wasn't necessary to actually WIN the counties - just inflate the Tatoe totals well over Obama's 2008 totals, and they were good to go.

Once you get down to the lower population counties, the JoeTatoe stops beating Obama's record 2008 turnout.

TOTALLY by coincidence, of course.      

9 posted on 11/25/2022 8:31:57 PM PST by kiryandil (put yer vote in the box, chump. HARHARHARHAR)
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To: SeekAndFind
Young people are woke. So they bought into the propaganda of the Democratic Party.

The abortion issue motivated suburban women to vote Democratic and the Republicans did not do a good job communicating the Roe vs Wade decision. The Democrats used ballot harvesting so they were able to "bank" their votes in early. We need to go to nursing homes and find every Republican voter. Don't wait until Election Day. You might get sick. Or you might get in a car accident.

10 posted on 11/25/2022 8:31:58 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: SeekAndFind

It was a nice country we used to have.


11 posted on 11/25/2022 8:33:01 PM PST by Antoninus (Republicans are all honorable men.)
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To: libh8er

It’s become a predictable pattern now. The Republican has a small lead on election night. Then comes harvest season over the following few days. Box after box ballots keep turning up until the Democrat is comfortably in the lead. Then it’s over.


12 posted on 11/25/2022 8:33:49 PM PST by libh8er
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To: libh8er
They don’t have to come out of the basement. They don’t have to debate their opponents.

They can run cardboard cutouts, blow-up dolls or Tussaud wax figures, if they wanted to.

They'd still win in a blowout.

13 posted on 11/25/2022 8:33:50 PM PST by kiryandil (put yer vote in the box, chump. HARHARHARHAR)
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To: kiryandil
It wasn't necessary to actually WIN the counties - just inflate the Tatoe totals well over Obama's 2008 totals, and they were good to go. Once you get down to the lower population counties, the JoeTatoe stops beating Obama's record 2008 turnout.

That's exactly what they did. They made sure their apathetic voters got to the polls by voting their ballots in the big counties on their behalf. It's what the Democrat machine has been doing in Philly for over 50 years--now rolled out to the whole country.
14 posted on 11/25/2022 8:35:21 PM PST by Antoninus (Republicans are all honorable men.)
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To: kiryandil

You win!


15 posted on 11/25/2022 8:36:28 PM PST by gathersnomoss (LIVE FREE OR DIE)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Democrats cried and cried about “the end of democracy.”

They got the end of democracy.

And they couldn’t be happier.


16 posted on 11/25/2022 8:38:09 PM PST by Scott from the Left Coast (Make Orwell Fiction Again)
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To: libh8er
I don't think Republicans doing vote harvesting will help.

First, most of the Republicans who are going to vote, will vote. They don't need someone to put their vote in a mailbox. They can go to the polls or mail the vote themselves.

Harvesting only works, if legally done, among the apathetic.

If Republicans decide to do the sort of harvesting that we claim the Democrats are doing, then all-of-a-sudden that harvesting will be fully investigated. The perpetrators will be tried and convicted. The Republican Party's reputation will be besmirched, and all Republicans labeled as hypocrites.

The Dems have come up with a winning method that can only be defeated by making it illegal... like in most civilized countries.

17 posted on 11/25/2022 8:43:19 PM PST by who_would_fardels_bear (What is left around which to circle the wagons?)
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To: kiryandil
People who vote in person are held to a different standard to a mail-in or dropbox voter with respect to voter ID.

Seems like that's a violation of the Constitution.

18 posted on 11/25/2022 8:44:58 PM PST by HandBasketHell
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To: SeekAndFind

IMO, voting should be on one day, in person with a photo ID, on paper ballots, and a finger dipped in an indelible purple ink (that wears off in a week) to show you voted.

No same day registration. No early voting. No drop boxes. No electronic machines with no paper trail. No voting on college campuses.

There should be an annual purge of all voter rolls. Convicted of a felony? You get purged. You die? You get purged. You permanently move out of state? You get purged. Any state that fails to comply should get an automatic 50% reduction in all federal funds.


19 posted on 11/25/2022 8:46:18 PM PST by 2CAVTrooper (One Nation, Under Fraud Completely Visible, With Spying and Lying To All.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t believe for one second Hobbs won, not for a second.

Other losses were obvious from the start, like OZ in PA…

But Kari? Nope not for one second.

Flagrant theft


20 posted on 11/25/2022 8:48:11 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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