Posted on 08/31/2022 6:44:18 AM PDT by lasereye
Americans are worried a recession is looming—and according to a top economist, they ought to be.
Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said this week that he believes the U.S. is heading for a “whopper” of a recession next year.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday, Hanke argued that a major economic downturn had been made inevitable due to U.S. money supply soaring and stagnating.
“We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it,” he said. “We’re going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.”
M2 is a measure of U.S. money supply, which includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. Since the beginning of the year, the M2 reading has plateaued, but the supply of money in the U.S. surged throughout the pandemic, according to official data.
Hanke said on Monday that throughout world history, there had never been sustained inflation—inflation above 4% for more than two years—that had not been caused by excessive growth in the supply of money.
“We had [that M2 growth] starting with COVID in February of 2020,” he told CNBC. “We had an unprecedented growth in the money supply in the United States, and that is why we are having inflation now—and that’s why, by the way, we will continue to have inflation through 2023 going into probably 2024.”
Last year, Hanke’s research predicted that U.S. inflation would be somewhere between 6% and 9% in 2022.
U.S. inflation cooled in July, but still remained elevated with the Consumer Price Index increasing 8.5% from a year earlier.
“We hit the bull's-eye with that model,” Hanke said Monday, referring to his inflation simulations. “Now the model is running at between 6% and 8% for the end of this year on a year-over-year basis, and 5% at the end of 2023 going into 2024.”
The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation at around 2%, and has been trying to reduce inflation this year without triggering a recession.
However, Powell himself warned last week that American households and businesses should brace for “some pain” as the central bank’s efforts to bring inflation under control were “likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.”
There is a broad consensus among many of the world’s top economists and market watchers that a recession is on the horizon, with many believing inflation will be difficult to tame and force the Fed to take drastic action.
According to a recent Bank of America survey of asset managers, recession expectations among investors have reached an all-time high.
Consumers are also nervous, with polling showing that 70% of Americans are worried about an imminent recession.
Earlier this month, top economist Mohamed El-Erian warned that inflation “will be sticky” and despite recent signs that price growth may be slowing, high inflation could become “entrenched.”
The veteran economist argued in recent weeks that while the U.S. is “simply not in a recession” right now, the risk of a recession was high—and “getting higher and higher.”
Michael Spence, Nobel laureate and dean emeritus at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, told Bloomberg this month that while recession fears were receding, he did not believe they were over.
“There are still people who are worried that inflation will be persistent enough to force the Fed to really clamp down,” he said in an interview. “There’s still a non-trivial possibility that we’ll have a recession or a dramatic slowdown.”
Meanwhile, renowned economist Stephen Roach told CNBC this week that the U.S. needed a “miracle” to evade a recession, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said recently that he saw only a 10% chance of an economic slowdown that did not lead to a recession.
However, others are less gloomy about the outlook for the U.S. economy.
“Little of the data I see tells me the U.S. is on the cusp of a recession,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said in the company’s earnings call last month.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, George Washington University adjunct economics professor and former chief economist at the Department of Labor, told PBS on Monday that she had a positive long-term outlook.
“I am optimistic that the economy is going to get better in the future and that we are going to have a mild recession, which is going to get inflation out of the economy, and then the economy is going to continue to increase,” she said.
This might be the strategy of the left- create policies now that will cripple the economy when a republican inevitably takes over in the next election, blame the republican, get a dem in power for 8 straight years as a result?
Diana Furchtgott-Roth: “I am optimistic that the economy is going to get better in the future and that we are going to have a mild recession, which is going to get inflation out of the economy, and then the economy is going to continue to increase,” she said.
Lollipops and Roses by Herb Alpert => https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLZmeyJ2KRY
Money supply? The fed seems disinterested in figuring printing endless money into their inflation calculations.
In our current case the presses slowed down in March last year. It takes around 18 months for equilibrium to be reached so inflation will be slowing down. The resulting recession will be steep due to increasing regulations and taxes. The IRS tyranny has been stepped up as well further crushing the economy.
There is supposed to be a recession.
His statements look ignorant to me. He is a professor of economics? No wonder we are so screwed up.
We are trying to lower the money supply because it is far too high from having had trillions of printed monopoly bucks pumped into it the last two years.
A recession is the only way this soaring inflation can be cooled off. Not only that, people are running out of disposable cash because of inflation caused by money printing and inflationary energy policy.
Diana Furchtgott-Roth, George Washington University adjunct economics professor ...okey dokey, sounds like someone grounded in private sector experience, NOT.
Yep, get ready for a real humdinger recession for the next 12-18 months.
Nothing seems to be working normally.
Why shouldn’t people be angry? I wish their hatred was focused in the right direction though.
““We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it,” he said. “We’re going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.”
Key take is zero money supply “GROWTH” - we don’t need more money supply growth from 2020-2021 growth spurt.
He is calling for the printing presses to go into overdrive
*** The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation at around 2%,***
Yeah, right.
When it comes to political matters, however, I can predict with absolute certainty that decisions made by senile Sleepy Joe's handlers will only get worse. 100% Guarantee.
It's pointless commenting about senile Sleepy Joe's own decisions because he's obviously just a puppet, so his handlers make all the decisions, as the entire world knows. Each time his handlers make a policy decision, senile Sleepy Joe then mangles whatever words his handlers put on his teleprompter screen.
The Democrat/RINO senile Sleepy Joe puppet Administration is one big clown show.
The KEY economic indicator “The Fed” is missing is a trip to the goddam grocery store and have to fork out the cash for their staples. If any of them actually DID this by themselves they’d think differently.
These pundits and prognosticators proclaim their opinions and so many follow them, when they are wrong 50% of the time. Your guess is as good as theirs.
That is because many Americans have never lived through a recession.
I am 59. I really do not recall the recession in the 1970s that was caused by lack of energy(the oil crisis).
I do not remember waiting in line to buy gasoline.
I do remember opening a money market account at Buffalo Savings Bank in 1981 and getting a small appliance as a thank you gift. Plus 15.5% interest rate. Merrill Lynch was offering 18% on their money market account at the time. I put some money in there too.
I do remember the savings and loan debacle. I remember because I bought my first house in 1989 for $125K. In the next 5 years I spent another $15K finishing it myself. I sold it in 1995 for $127K. Losing money on real estate has a lasting impression.
My father was born in 1916. My mom in 1926. My Dad told me stories of passing bread lines in Buffalo on the way to a farmers market. He always said that during the Depression that he was poor, but hey had enough food because he grew up on a farm. Same with mom. My father NEVER trusted the stock market. I guess that is what happens when you live through something like that. it sticks with you for the rest of your life.
The problem today is that most people have NEVER lived through hard times. They have never been hungry or had to do manual labor. They are soft.
I guess the "trend" must be "zero".
All you stated are true facts. However, every time I go out to eat the restaurants are crowded. People are still out spending money.
I think this is about to change though for many people. They will not have the extra income to spend on things that are not necessities. Fuel, electricity, rent and other commodities are going to take up much more of their income.
p
“We did not get here overnight and we will not get out of it overnight either......”
Well, maybe with a big war, but even then, we don’t have a manufacturing economy so going on a wartime footing will not bring broad economic benefits to offset a general depression I think.
In at least one case we had our own container, so I got to stand in line. We had an odd plate and it was an even day (or vice versa) and needed enough gas to get the heck out of NYC
I bought my first house in 1989 for $125K. In the next 5 years I spent another $15K finishing it myself. I sold it in 1995 for $127K. Losing money on real estate has a lasting impression.
You were lucky again. Bought my first house in 88 sold in 93 for at least 30k less not counting any expenses. Zero offers for about a year.
The problem today is that most people have NEVER lived through hard times. They have never been hungry or had to do manual labor. They are soft
True. I did lots of manual labor as a kid, including some real jobs. But never went hungry. There was always coupons for 2 for 1 quarter pounders. But being hungry for a while would have probably done some good, health-wise.
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