Posted on 04/14/2022 1:40:24 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Noted military historian Edward N Luttwak, who has penned numerous volumes on the grand strategies of empires, including that of the former Soviet Union, says that the Ukraine war will result in the political demise of Russian president and strongman Vladimir Putin due to a raft of reasons, including the prospects of an unwieldy occupation and the rising tide of discontent back home.
Luttwak, a cold warrior now in his late 70s, had negotiated with Soviet generals and officials in his prime as an American interlocutor in the height of tensions between the United States and the USSR. He avers that the Russian troops are too few to control the whole of Ukraine, especially beyond central Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and such regions. He notes that sustaining the occupation will prove to be harder than Russians expect because of the geography in the western side. He emphasises that around Lviv in the west and beyond Zaporizhzhia in the south east, troops will face stiff resistance and will fall easy prey to Ukrainian soldiers and volunteer forces. Lviv is located near the Polish border not far from the eastern Carpathian Mountains. Zaporizhzhia is situated on the banks of the Dnieper River.
“From Moscow, I hear from even non-dissidents that the war is very unpopular,” Luttwak told Open, referring to anti-war, anti-Putin protests across cities in Russia against the invasion of the western neighbour that was launched on February 24. The problem Putin is going to face, he says, is that clashes will continue in Ukraine, making it difficult for him to find a short-or mid-term exit plan. “Final result: the end of Putin,” he exclaims. Meanwhile, Luttwak tweeted about the cultural and political dissimilarities between western Ukraine and Russia that makes them vastly different entities, “Western Ukraine was never part of Russia.
(Excerpt) Read more at openthemagazine.com ...
Ukraine ping
Putin is a self-made man who clawed his way to the top and carefully created and customized a sprawling securitate to protect his throne. The idea that he is somehow vulnerable to a coup or mutiny in the same way as Tsar Nicholas II, the dissipated heir to 3 centuries of Romanov rule, seems like a stretch.
However, it has to be said - Luttwak nailed one aspect of the Russian invasion - he said it would be no cakewalk. And for Russia, it has turned out to be expensive in men and equipment. It is also, as of now, a costly campaign with no end in sight.
RE: He avers that the Russian troops are too few to control the whole of Ukraine, especially beyond central Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and such regions.
I think Putin is recalibrating his strategy to focus only on the Donbas region for now.
Kyiv will come later after he controls the Donbas.
Maybe he’ll pull a Joe Bidet like Afghanistan.
“... will result in the political demise of Russian president and strongman Vladimir Putin ...”
Then how does he explain how dictators like Kim Jong-un and Nicolás Maduro hold onto power?
If I was a betting man I would bet that Putin dies of natural causes before he is dethroned. Though I would not shed a tear if it happens otherwise.
The purpose of surrounding Kiev was to divide Ukraine’s army so they’d keep less troops in the Donbass. It worked. There’s no indication he wants to “take Kiev.”
“Kyiv will come later after he controls the Donbas.”
It’s probably lost to him forever now, as he only got as far as he did by making a surprise attack from Belarus.
Now that surprise is spoiled and will never work again, and the Ukrainians will surely reinforce their defenses on that border.
Eastern Ukraine is Ethnic Russian:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/mcs/media/images/73094000/gif/_73094671_ukraine_divide_2.gif
They vote for the pro-Russian candidate.
They speak Russian.
They have pro-Russian separatists in the East which Western/nationalist Ukraine has been suppressing with our help.
Eastern Ukraine has nationalists that were trained and equipped by us fighting there. Some of these nationalists committed horrible acts on the local population that often was very sympathetic to Russia and opposed the government in Kiev. The now somewhat known (US media has reported on it a little so it won't sound to crazy) Azov battalion had folks that were basically abusing the crap out of the Russian minority... Many of the people in the East will not be sad to see the glorious democratic freedom fighters from the Ukraine gone.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment (since you get very little reporting on this over here but Fox “once” had a small blurb about it)
All you get here is one-sided cheerleading, for a war we basically started by breaking promises (Minsk Memorandum) and pushing Russia into a corner. NATO membership for Ukraine is unacceptable for them, and once Biden gave the green light in October 2021, the countdown timer for this conflict was started:
But no, Russia won't have a hard time holding or leaving the East of Ukraine. They are hardly the “occupiers” or “invaders” in the eyes of most the people there that vote for pro-Russian candidates and speak Russian. Reality isn't lining up with our narrative.
“Then how does he explain how dictators like Kim Jong-un and Nicolás Maduro hold onto power?”
One part of how they hold onto power is by not actually attacking their neighbors and giving the international community reason to want to rock the boat and upset the existing order by supporting their deposition.
Sure, they may rattle their sabres and make a lot of threats, but they are not stupid enough to think that they can launch hot wars without consequences, especially ones they cannot win.
Hey, Prince of Space, don’t use disrespectful “he”. Use “My President” instead.
Luttwak said we would have 100,000 American troops killed invading Iraq.
Is that the best expert you can find?
Hey Red6, you are using language constructs like “..with our help”, “us fighting there” and “or a war we basically started”. Not cool, as we are not you, and your ilk.
Possibly. We don’t really know. But at best Kiev was a very costly diversion for the Russian army. Whether it worked or blew up in Russia’s face, is still in doubt. Time will tell.
Putin wanted to take Kiev. Then he could install a puppet government and then easily divide Ukraine. He was expected Zelensky to flee when the invasion started.
Now that Ukraine is fighting back he is having to settle for Donetsk and the other one.
Nothing surprising about the attack from Belarus. We called that as soon as it was reported that he was massing troops there. A plain look at the map told that story. But nobody even bothers with simple geography any more.
[Luttwak said we would have 100,000 American troops killed invading Iraq.
Is that the best expert you can find?]
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/astonishing-achievment-wallace/
Whereas Milley was off by an order of magnitude, and counting, in his estimate of a 3-day timeline for the occupation of Kiev. Unlike Luttwak, Milley has official access to all kinds of non-public info.
Yeah, I’m surprised at all the folks saying Kyiv was a feint or whatever. There’s massive symbolic value in take a capital. Emotionally the world considers a war lost when the capital falls, whether it’s remotely true or not (usually it isn’t) it feels that way. In doing it you either take the government or force them to flee, it just can’t be overstated what the fall of a capital does to morale on both sides.
Paid by the reply. Thanks for confirmation.
[Paid by the reply. Thanks for confirmation.]
It turns out Luttwak was overly generous to Putin. Putin wishes he had an “unwieldy occupation” to look forward to.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
