[Zhang Fei]

[Luttwak said we would have 100,000 American troops killed invading Iraq.

Is that the best expert you can find?]

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When you swing at every pitch, you’re gonna have a few misses. Luttwak predicted thousands of casualties, not 100,000 for Desert Storm. That includes wounded. Including all wounded, the number did breach 1,000 casualties, so he was off by some multiple rather than an order of magnitude.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/astonishing-achievment-wallace/

Whereas Milley was off by an order of magnitude, and counting, in his estimate of a 3-day timeline for the occupation of Kiev. Unlike Luttwak, Milley has official access to all kinds of non-public info.

[Travis McGee]

Paid by the reply. Thanks for confirmation.

[Kevmo]

Luttwak predicted thousands of casualties, not 100,000 for Desert Storm. That includes wounded. Including all wounded, the number did breach 1,000 casualties, so he was off by some multiple rather than an order of magnitude.
***Uh, if he was off by that much, 1000 versus 100,000, that’s 2 orders of magnitude off. 10^3 versus 10^5.

And if someone claims 3 days but it’s now headed for 60 days, that would be 3*10^0 versus 6*10^1 which is basically 1 order of magnitude off. One could claim that Kieyyev was never occupied, so it can keep going on and on which makes it completely wrong. It doesn’t fit an order of magnitude comparison.