Posted on 01/12/2022 5:55:52 AM PST by Browns Ultra Fan
This is like the Samuel Beckett play “Waiting For Godot.” Except we are waiting for Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve to do something.
December’s consumer price index (CPI) is out and its a doozy, though expected. The CPI year-over-year (YoY) rose 7% in December.
If we exclude food and energy, CPI rose by 5.5% YoY.
Thanks to Biden’s assault on the energy sector, energy prices are up nearly 50% YoY.
REAL average hourly earnings YoY? It has crashed to -2.32%.
And with 7% inflation, the Taylor Rule model suggests a Fed Funds Target rate of … 17.84%. Bear in mind that the current target rate is 0.25%.
Meanwhile, we are waiting for Godot Powell to start taking action instead of jawboning.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
As bad as the inflation is, at least you can find a job now. The Great Recession - prolonged for one miserable year after another by Obama’s idiotic policies - was far worse than even this.
This is why the Fed is not racing to raise the Fed Funds Rate.
But, hey, no more mean tweets or bad orange man, amirite?
The drop in labor participation when jobs are available and some wages have increased is strange.
If I were to guess, many low-level workers learned to live with less under lockdowns and also discovered the cornucopia of benefits the poor receive (even single earner families) such as EITC, Medicaid, health insurance for kids, foodstamps, etc. They have simply made the rational choice to have one earner stay home and look after the kids, the low wages of the one earner being subsidized by welfare. So you have the government subsidizing low-wage jobs and flooding the US with illegals to fill up the slack.
Almost nothing explains the frantic and ultmately successful attempts to pull a coup against Trump than the sharp increase in the percentage of labor's share of the economy. Almost the entire elite recoiled in horror as Trump's policies limited their ability to game the economy in their favor.
Surely it varies by industry, but every financial statement I have ever reviewed — as a business owner, prospective business owner, and board member — has shown labor costs as the single largest item on the expense side of the ledger.
One big flaw in those labor statistics is that the U.S. government counts a 90+ year old man who has been retired for 30 years as a member of the labor force as long as he’s not living in an institution or a prison.
Yes, I agree that is part of it.
The other part is millions of boomers took early retirement. Which should have caused a shift in the workforce. IE: we are witnessing the Great Resignation of people changing jobs for something better. Which often times is leaving their old position open or unfilled, even at an increased wage & benefit offer.
That opening coupled with people now making the choice to stay home with the kids is not a bad choice, IMHO. People have rediscovered an important priority in their lives. Their children, raising them, and in many cases educating them having witnessed the public school system via Zoom.
If this particular trend holds in a positive way this particular generation may be creating our Nation’s next ‘greatest’ generation.
Also look at the table I linked very closely over the past year for the unemployment rate. There’s no way it is 3.6% or whatever they are claiming.
Okay, I had to look at this a couple of times. Here is what I noticed as ODD. In the top portion of the chart there is a line item called “Persons who currently want a job” To me that sounds like they are UNEMPLOYEED since wanting a job would/should be considered as being part of the civilian labor force. Yet for calculation of unemployment rate, these people who are “wanting” are REMOVED. For seasonally adjusted Dec21 ONLY, I would say an honest assessment would be ((Civilian Labor Force / (Unemployed + Those Want a Job)) In other words unemployment is closer to 7.4% not the highly publicized 3.9%
2 weeks ago, whole milk-gallon- was $2.83. Paid $4.99 yesterday same brand.
“wanting” a job may not be the same as “looking” for a job. Sitting on the couch thinking doesn’t count as being in the labor force??
6 months ago Walmart was selling a gal of whole milk for $1.99, now it’s over $3.
Must be people figured out that milk was cheaper than cat food?
Doesn’t matter what you call it. Wanting or Looking is still Unemployed.
You can’t just take 5.7M people out of civilian labor force TOTAL unless you are actually trying to present an artificially LOW unemployment rate.
I was one of them. I picked a heck of a time to go on a fixed income (and to stop smoking, stop sniffing glue, etc. - just saving the next poster some time).
There are also a lot of formerly middle class people being pushed down because they have lost good paying jobs with benefits who are now stuck scrambling with lower paying or part-time work. The same is true in Europe, which explains the "populist" sentiment against further immigration even as businesses clamor for more and governments bend over to kiss immigrants' behinds, just like here.
If the statistics suggest everything is good but the majority feel the economy stinks, the statistics are wrong.
Actively looking for a job after 6 months unemployment is considered not in the labor force.
Not even 5.9 as the Medicare and Medicare part d monthly payments are going up.
The biggest difference I see is the ready availability of jobs and no workforce. During the Carter years, there we no jobs. This dysfunction warns of something seriously wrong in the economy and it is not a wage issue.
Good point and it is odd. Perhaps those who claim there is a conspiracy for a “great reset” in the West are correct? I don’t know any more but we sure seem to be in a much different situation now vs only two years ago.
I still hear business owners complain that people are not returning to work because of the various programs paying them almost the same to stay at home. I am still seeing signs to be patient at businesses because they have fewer employees.
There are still help wanted signs all over the place in my city - pretty much every single service or hospitality industry has signs up.
The road ahead looks pretty bumpy indeed BUT at the same time the wealthy globalist elites are growing their wealth in comparison to the average Joe or Jane. It almost seems like it is designed because our government continues to do things that are inexplicable that are hurting 95% of us.
The disconnect between what we all see with our own eyes and what they tell us is happening has never been larger and it continues to grow. I am not sure how the media will lie or spin their way out of this during the election cycle and the number of resignations on the left side of the aisle points to a major upheaval ahead.
Quit projecting. Labor is not the biggest cost by far for durable mass produced manufactured goods. It is less than 8%. The types of jobs shipped overseas for pennies on the dollar causing massive insecurity and domestic political problems.
No workforce? You actually believe that???? There is a wage shortage not a labor shortage.
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