Michigan Poll: Trump 49% - Biden 47%

Twitter ^ | Oct 29 | Trafalgar Group

[RandFan]

MICHIGAN:

Trump 49% (+2)

Biden 47%

Jorgensen 2%

@trafalgar_group, LV, 10/25-28

[Maelstorm]

The only thing that worries me is that we don’t have the green party taking votes from Biden this year. I do think that President Trump has a real good chance of taking MI again. Polls have been getting progressively worse because they can not get real scientific samples easily any more. Trafalgar uses the best techniques to help get more honest responses.

[Fai Mao]

“The Battle of Trafalgar established British naval supremacy for more than 100 years.”

101 years actually, 1815 until 1916.

Really longer than that because while a tactical tie, the Royal Navy won a strategic victory at Jutland. It was not until WW2 that the Royal Navy was actually a junior partner.

[SmokingJoe]

2018 too. Check out the RCP polls for governor in Florida for 2018.
Every other poll had Gillum (D) winning, by up to 7 points (Quinnipiac final poll).
Only Trafalgar called it for DeSantis. Guess who won?
DeSantis. Quinnipiac needs to get out of the polling business. They suck at it.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

[JamesP81]

To be fair, Trafalgar had DeSantis +3. The actual result was Desantis +0.4.

Within margin of error though, and the on the right side of the winner too.

[JamesP81]

““Spoke to someone familiar with the Trump camps polling. With a few days left, these are some of the states they are confident in: FL, AZ, NC, Maine 2nd district, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Texas. Not confident: Michigan.
Public polls show they’re down in most of these states.””

FWIW, this aligns with my own personal ‘gut feeling’ on how he’s doing, though I’m not seeing PA as confident. MI does appear to be an uphill climb.

[SmokingJoe]

True. But a win is a win.
Trafalgar is the only one that said DeSantis would win even if the margin of victory was off a bit. It was still within the margin of error.
The other polls had Gillum winning by between 5 and 7 points, way outside the margin of error. They never gave DeSantis a chance.

Plus Trafalger also got it right for the US Senate race in 2018 as well, calling it for Scott even as other polls gave it to Nelson. Scott still won.

[cookcounty]

Jorgensen is over-rated, in 2016 they had bigger name former Gov Gary Johnson, who took a bit over 2%, and libertarians more likely to go with Trump rather than Biden.

[rfp1234]

This year the Libertarians should take significant votes away from the Rats in the states that have pot initiatives on the ballot. AZ is one, I forget the others.

[Homer1]

Voting Libertarian seems silly this cycle because basic freedoms are on the ballot this year among the choice of the two major parties....

[Homer1]

Based on EV, I feel pretty gd about FL, NC and AZ right now. We still need PA or MI or WI or MN. PA could be our best shot and that worries me.

[wareagle7295]

I think Kanye had 3% in a MN poll the other day. Kanye could save the world.

[Homer1]

The Black vote is a little unknown. The approval numbers suggest support for Trump could be huge, but I also suspect that many will cuck out faster than fiddy when they get to the booth...12% for PDJT would be huge.

[Kay]

Thanks for info. Good memory and good that prediction was in margin of error.