Skip to comments.Here's What Early Voting Numbers Are Telling Us: The Numbers Spell Doom For Biden in Pennsylvania
Posted on 10/29/2020 6:37:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
After 2016, it’s hard to have a lot of faith in the polls, so the question is, how do we assess the state of the race? In 2016, most state polls were as bad as national polls, and cherrypicking specific polls isn’t a great option either, as it lends itself to confirmation bias.
So, in many ways, the best thing we can use to judge the state of the race is to analyze early-voting statistics. According to Gallup 62 percent of Democrat and 28 percent of Republican voters plan to vote early this year when they otherwise have been only within a few points of each other. So, what can we say about the state of the election based on early voting statistics?
Writing at UncoveredDC, bestselling author Larry Schweikart looked at some early voting numbers.
Schweikart noted that despite the Democrats’ early lead in early voting, both in vote-by-mail (VBM) and in-person early voting (IPEV), they peaked around October 16 and Republicans have been catching upbig time. In Florida, for example, GOP votes are “on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State.”
Things are also looking good in North Carolina. According to Schweikart, “While Democrats lead by 301,000 (and this is also falling rapidly), the black vote currently is at 20% of all turnout, behind the black share of all 2016 turnout of 21.89%itself a drop off from 2012. When Barack Obama won the state in 2012, the share of the black vote was 23%, but he won by only one point.” Polls have also suggested that Trump has increased his support from the black community since 2016.
Schweikart also sees good news for Trump in Virginia
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Regarding PA, the Keystone State, Here’s our FRiend, Professor LS observes:
Averaging the results of the two recent polls, he has the backing of 73 percent of Philadelphia voters, down from 83 percent for Mrs. Clinton in 2016. According to the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump was supported by 24 percent of Philadelphians, nine points ahead of his exit poll numbers in 2016.
Anyone who thinks Biden will make it up in the middle of the state is smoking something special, writes Schweikart.
These numbers spell doom for Joe Biden in the Keystone State. Not only can Biden not win Pennsylvania with these numbers, he would suffer major hits across the board.
we must OWN election day!
Here’s an idea - for states like Pennsylvania that are allowing Democrats an extra week to manufacture ballots after election day, let’s shut the hell up about how well early voting is going.
How about we instead bemoan the overwhelming Democrat majority in the early votes? Let the Dems know that they might as well not even bother getting all those fake “Nov 3” postmark stamps inked up because they have it in the bag.
Apparently Pennsylvanians know the definition of “transition”. Did he think they were stupid?
I am leaning towards Trump winning and Repubs taking back the house and keeping the Senate, but that’s if the support for Trump is truly larger than it was in 2016 which I believe it is. But on the other hand, God know what kind of massive election fraud the commies have set up. Biden wins you can pretty much account it to voter fraud, this guy is by far an even worse candidate than Hillary.
Short fraud on a level that you cannot imagine there is no prayer For Biden in PA.
Yep, it ends with tion all right, elimination.
I think just the opposite. Get them to vote early. Get all the votes from every county in. Get them recorded. That way any “mysterious” ballots can be more easily challenged.
I dislike these kind of articles. Voter suppression its never over til its over.
The BLUE GOLD YELLOW program has released a sex tape of Hunter Biden smoking crack and few other things...
The link: PM me - Ill send it to you
YOU MUST BE AN ADULT - BE WARNED
As always, it isn’t who casts the votes, it is who counts the votes. We have a huge fraud organization to overcome. The democrat operation is active in illegal work. You have to beat them by 15%+ to get beyond it.
The rioting in Philadelphia the last few days will not help Biden.
I love me some analysis I the morning
Thanks to you both
I believe Trump will win by a solid margin. However, even before COVID most early voting was done by seniors, who tend to vote Republican. I’d be wary of placing too much weight on early voting results.
“According to Gallup 62 percent of Democrat and 28 percent of Republican voters plan to vote early this year when they otherwise have been only within a few points of each other. “
Everything after that line...is premised on that poll. From Gallup.
We don’t have to beat them by 15%! It is very difficult to steal an election with over a 1% win.
Good piece; good find.
“I dislike these kind of articles. Voter suppression its never over til its over.”
Absolutely. I live in Northeast PA and in 2016 I saw MANY Trump signs and only 2 Hillary signs while driving around my local area. This year there are again many Trump signs but about half as many Biden signs. That’s sort of troubling. Keep fighting till the battle is won.
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