Posted on 10/27/2020 5:38:18 AM PDT by bort
As predicted, Republicans gained yesterday in early voting, netting 14,000 votes vis-a-vis Democrats, and cutting 1.5 points off of the Dem lead. Democrats now hold an early voting lead of 315K votes. Next, as predicted, BLACK TURNOUT FELL significantly, from 20.58% of all EV to 20.31%.
Dems--1,356,450 (39.76%) (+75K votes)
Reps--1,041,160 (30.52%) (+89K votes)
Black turnout: 20.31%
Translation: Democrats are toast in NC. My gut said Trump would win NC weeks ago, but I needed more concrete data. The Democrats need the black vote to be above 22.5% (Obama won NC in 2008 by the skin of his teeth with 23% black turnout). This Sunday was the high watermark for the black vote in NC, FL, and other swing states. There will be no more gains. I expect the black vote to fall to 19% of the electorate when it is all said and done. Trump (and Tillis) will win.
Folks, lots of people are putting out lots of numbers. I love numbers and playing math games, but 2020 is a bizarre year. We have nothing to compare it to. The Democrats front-loaded their votes with mail-ins. I said weeks ago that this was a BAD sign for Democrats (that record #s of mail-ins were requested), as it was a show of FEAR of China Virus, not ENTHUSIASM.
Instead of numbers, focus on RACE. Democrats are a coalition of voters. If one part of the coalition does not post, they are in trouble. Black voting is DOWN in every swing state. And it won't increase through election day. This NC drop in the black vote yesterday is the beginning of a steep decline.
I am also watching the VA numbers. VA is not on anyone's radar. But the black share of the EV in VA is currently around 13%. That number needs to be closer to 18 or 19% for Democrats to feel good. Just sayin'.
ping
Thank you. Can you add me to your ping list!
I’m really hoping we get the House. The lack of enthusiasm for Joe and the overwhelming enthusiasm for Trump could make this a great election.
And what would the media say to that??
Thank you for posting this
Nothing better than good news that is well substantiated.
Thanks for this.
and a good part of the black vote is voting for trump.
They already know there’s no enthusiasm for Joe and incredible enthusiasm for Trump. They are hiding it from their viewers are to be more specific, accused Trump rallies of being superspreaders as a way of downplaying his large crowds; knowing Joe couldn’t get such crowds if he tried. Blacks and youths (18-24) will be down significantly for Biden
Good news, thanks. Let’s hope the Rs keep cutting into that lead. And especially hope that Dems don’t show up on election day.
Excellent analysis.
The data around the country is telling me that you can take the Trump vote in 2016 and add 5% to it, and you will get a reasonable estimate of the 2020 numbers. This applies across all racial and ethnic groups and all regions.
That means the “swing states” will all be comfortable Trump victories, while the new “battleground states” will be VA, NM, NH, and MN. I expect the President to win at least two of these.
A five point swing would also mean a popular vote victory by a couple or three percentage points.
What are the prospects for deposing Cooper?
The Republicans are behind by over 300,000 and it is “good news.”
If the Republicans were ahead by 300k, it would actually be good news.
You win today’s Polyanna Award.
I’ve told y’all for weeks from everything I was seeing and hearing, Trump is going to beat Biden here and Tillis is going to beat Jody Cunningham.
I just hope our idiot governor Roy Cooper loses too.
Best part about Dems doing mail-in as the Polls won’t be so crowded on Election Day for us Trumpers to crush the place. Long lines make some people stay away
Most everyone I work with and know are going to show up at the polls on November 3rd to seal the deal. Thanks for the update!
I am also watching the VA numbers.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Gov. Coonman is horrible. Let’s hope Trump can pull it off in VA & icing on the cake would be to maybe have enough coattails to pull some folks with him (not holding my breath, but crossing my fingers!).
Most Democrats vote early or by mail.
Most Republicans (by far) vote on Election Day.
Glad I saw your daily update. I peeked at byecomey’s NC github website and was dismayed, but looks like it hasn’t updated with the latest. phew!
Republican numbers in NC are ahead of 2016. How did that work out, Eeyore?
I don’t care how the popular vote goes. BrainDead Joe can win that by millions, just as long as The Donald gets those 270+ Electoral Votes!!! The Dim’s greatest enemy, that stinking Constitution.
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