Excellent analysis.
The data around the country is telling me that you can take the Trump vote in 2016 and add 5% to it, and you will get a reasonable estimate of the 2020 numbers. This applies across all racial and ethnic groups and all regions.
That means the “swing states” will all be comfortable Trump victories, while the new “battleground states” will be VA, NM, NH, and MN. I expect the President to win at least two of these.
A five point swing would also mean a popular vote victory by a couple or three percentage points.
Darthvader posted some polling numbers yesterday on a thread that were from an internal polling organization.
Your predictions may be coming true:
NH Trump 49 Biden 46
VA Trump 47 Biden 47
MN Trump 47 Biden 44
NM Trump 45 Biden 46
These were the results from the organization not for public consumption. That mesh with the results we are seeing in the REAL world.
From personal experience here in NH, the only thing that is making NH’s numbers this close is the recent influx of people from NY, NJ in the last 6 months. All the recent real estate transactions are from the great exodus from the NYC area. Without them, NH would be 5 points ahead for Trump.
People from the NYC area started coming here in large numbers in the spring. First to escape Covid for the summer. There were so many people in North Conway, NH this summer that the grocery stores actually ran out of food.
Then, many realized they could live here and still make a living over the internet. They bought houses, condos, etc.
This is also happening in a big way in ME. The NY Post di an article about 2 weeks ago regarding the amount of NYC people moving to ME. One segment described a male gay couple who bought a $1 million FIXER UPPER in Rockland, ME. Another segment described a Lesbian couple buying a house in the lakes region of ME. People with this sexual preference do not typically vote CONSERVATIVELY.