Posted on 10/27/2020 5:38:18 AM PDT by bort
Where’s the unaffiliated?
You won this morning’s pearl-clutcher award.
Apples to apples comparisons are what is called “analysis”.
It is what the cool kids around here _do_!
It is why we predicted a Trump victory in 2016 even after reading stuff like this:
https://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/
Let's tamper down our expectations regarding the black vote for POTUS. Yes, I believe he getting historically high marks from black men, but we need to keep in mind 2 things. Black men have some of the lowest rates of voter participation compared to black women and those ladies are not feeling POTUS at the moment. Having said that, I don't think there is the level of enthusiasm among blacks, in general, for the Harris-Biden ticket; this is being confirmed by bort's analysis of various black-heavy states.
Another number I saw yesterday which actually came from a NY Times poll (!) was that Trump was getting 24 percent in Philadelphia compared to 73 percent for Senile Joe. In 2016, HRC got 82 percent to Trump’s 15 percent for a spread of 67 percent, 584K votes to 108K, for a net vote margin of 476K. If you guesstimate a turnout again of 700K for Phila., this gives Biden a victory margin of about 350K that is 125K that has to be made up in the rest of the state. Even if the Philly suburbs come in stronger for Biden, it is unlikely he can overcome the deficit in NW, NE, Central and western PA.
Is there any disadvantage at all to doing that? Thanks.. d:^)
After last nights riots, you can expect that number for POTUS to go higher. I don't typically root for riots in my country, but...
No.
Darthvader posted some polling numbers yesterday on a thread that were from an internal polling organization.
Your predictions may be coming true:
NH Trump 49 Biden 46
VA Trump 47 Biden 47
MN Trump 47 Biden 44
NM Trump 45 Biden 46
These were the results from the organization not for public consumption. That mesh with the results we are seeing in the REAL world.
From personal experience here in NH, the only thing that is making NH’s numbers this close is the recent influx of people from NY, NJ in the last 6 months. All the recent real estate transactions are from the great exodus from the NYC area. Without them, NH would be 5 points ahead for Trump.
People from the NYC area started coming here in large numbers in the spring. First to escape Covid for the summer. There were so many people in North Conway, NH this summer that the grocery stores actually ran out of food.
Then, many realized they could live here and still make a living over the internet. They bought houses, condos, etc.
This is also happening in a big way in ME. The NY Post di an article about 2 weeks ago regarding the amount of NYC people moving to ME. One segment described a male gay couple who bought a $1 million FIXER UPPER in Rockland, ME. Another segment described a Lesbian couple buying a house in the lakes region of ME. People with this sexual preference do not typically vote CONSERVATIVELY.
The Republicans are behind by over 300,000 and it is “good news.”
If the Republicans were ahead by 300k, it would actually be good news.
You win today’s Polyanna Award.
___________________________________________________
In 2016, Republicans ended early voting with a 310K deficit as compared to Democrats and WON North Carolina by 3.8 points. We currently trail the early vote by 315K, and are on a pace to get that number down below 200K. There is also ample evidence that the Democrat numbers are being enlarged by conservative, western Carolina Democrats (”Jesse-crats”). The black vote is a pace to below 20% of the electorate. Democrats are in trouble, big time.
blacks that are voting are motivated to do so, and i believe that motivation is more for trump than for what biden brings.
A possible counterpoint in NH is that I believe Dartmouth and other colleges in the state are closed so you don’t have the mass of liberal out of state students voting.
Thanks for the update! My husband and I put our 2 unaffiliated votes in the red columns yesterday. Both my grandsons [new voters this year] put their unaffiliated votes in the red column this past Saturday. Daughter, her husband, my son and daughter in law all voted red this past week. Our black neighbors have already voted red. We do have some friends [moved here from Chicago many yrs ago], down the street who are Biden supporters. The wife once told me, “we are too poor to vote republican”. No lie, she left me speechless at the time. lol I did finally weave into a conversation at a later date, “don’t you think its time to change who you vote for if you are still poor after all these years?”. No response for her....she’s a hopeless case. Oh and btw, they are not poor. Cheap yes, but not poor! We saw many Biden signs downtown Wilson on our way to voting, with a few Trump signs sprinkled in. Vast majority of Trump signs are out in the country with hardly no Biden signs spotted. Oh and lastly, I saw two signs in one yard yesterday that left me puzzled....a Biden sign and a Forest sign. I can’t figure out the logic in that one? Go TRUMP! Go REPUBLICANS!
You know, at some point you need to learn how to handicap a horse race.
You have Secretariat, running 5 lengths ahead of where he normally runs, but at the back of the pack. Bad news? No, fantastic news, because you know Secretariat ALWAYS runs back.
Rs are way ahead of where they were in 2016, esp. in terms of the black vote. For perspective, a -3% black vote in 2016 in FL = 110,000 votes. Gee, how many is that? Almost exactly what Trump won by.
So now, in NC, the black vote (23% of the total) is down by 3 points. That means Trump wins by 4 points this year instead of 3.something.
Yes, also true. There was a story a couple weeks ago here on TV that there was no get out the vote push going on in Durham at UNH. UNH Durham, Keene State, Plymouth State and Dartmouth. However, Dartmouth is not that big. There are only about 4000 undergrad. There are 27,000 @ Durham.
Frankly, I do not believe there is much excitement among the college age crowd for either Joe or Kammalla. At least with Hillary she was the first woman presidential candidate. Obama was the first Blackish. Joe is just another old white dude.
True. That’s why I always allocate 12%-15% max for Trump from blacks. But I think on top of that you will have another 5% shortfall. Right now, bort is showing a 3%.
In 2016, that 3%= a victory in FL and PA.
7 unaffiliated Pennsylvania Trump votes being cast on 11/3/20. We're unaffiliated because we mostly despise Republican politicians, not Republican voters, but Republican politicians.
Thank you bort for your election updates!
I am glad to see Trump actively campaigning for the black vote; they have been a contributing part of our country since the beginning and gladly served in our wars even though, before Truman, they were in segregated units. For too long, Republicans have ignored it (Reagan tried in 1980 but there was still institutional memory, no matter how inaccurate, of opposition to the Civil Rights Act among some R senators). You cannot ignore 13 percent of the population and keep winning - many in the black community are veterans, quite conservative, culturally and otherwise. If you don’t reach out, and Trump has, you will never make headway.
Your calculations, like SpeedyInTexas’s, are now automated. I’ll try and do a better job of keeping them up to date.
https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/
Just click on the race -> black button to see your 20.31% in the Totals box.
ping
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.