The Republicans are behind by over 300,000 and it is “good news.”
If the Republicans were ahead by 300k, it would actually be good news.
You win today’s Polyanna Award.
Most Democrats vote early or by mail.
Most Republicans (by far) vote on Election Day.
Republican numbers in NC are ahead of 2016. How did that work out, Eeyore?
You won this morning’s pearl-clutcher award.
Apples to apples comparisons are what is called “analysis”.
It is what the cool kids around here _do_!
It is why we predicted a Trump victory in 2016 even after reading stuff like this:
https://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/
The Republicans are behind by over 300,000 and it is “good news.”
If the Republicans were ahead by 300k, it would actually be good news.
You win today’s Polyanna Award.
___________________________________________________
In 2016, Republicans ended early voting with a 310K deficit as compared to Democrats and WON North Carolina by 3.8 points. We currently trail the early vote by 315K, and are on a pace to get that number down below 200K. There is also ample evidence that the Democrat numbers are being enlarged by conservative, western Carolina Democrats (”Jesse-crats”). The black vote is a pace to below 20% of the electorate. Democrats are in trouble, big time.
You know, at some point you need to learn how to handicap a horse race.
You have Secretariat, running 5 lengths ahead of where he normally runs, but at the back of the pack. Bad news? No, fantastic news, because you know Secretariat ALWAYS runs back.
Rs are way ahead of where they were in 2016, esp. in terms of the black vote. For perspective, a -3% black vote in 2016 in FL = 110,000 votes. Gee, how many is that? Almost exactly what Trump won by.
So now, in NC, the black vote (23% of the total) is down by 3 points. That means Trump wins by 4 points this year instead of 3.something.
In 2016, Republicans went in 310k behind on election day, yet won NC by 3.8 points. That is the best gauge we can go on. So being 315k down a week out, the trend is good.
You win the simplistic thinking award! The Democrats have to reach certain targets in their mail in voting to win since most GOP voters vote on election day.