Posted on 10/18/2020 8:08:26 AM PDT by BenghaziMemoriam
Robert Barnes explains how bad the polls are. As well as being an attorney, Barnes
has wagered on elections for decades. He has never been wrong on a presidential
election. In 2016 he won 500k betting on Trump. He puts his money where his mouth is.
Ignore the polls and focus on the election fundamentals.
(Excerpt) Read more at the-american-catholic.com ...
You know those “undecided” voters and “unaffiliated” voters.
They are the “don’t dox me bro” Trump voters!
A few times this year they didn't recognize voicemail and started polling it, so they have tried to call me.
The point is that if they came out and said Trump was going to win in a landslide, which is what most people want. Then most people aren’t going to be as interested in the polls. They will be happy, but won’t follow as closely.
If they say the race is close, they get attention.
If they say that Biden is going to win in a landslide, then they get a following because most people are wondering how can that be and hoping the polls change. And at the same time, they get to try to change public opinion through their push polls.
the danger with the latter scenario is that people realize they pushing a narrative and tune out completely.
One point is that the last eleven presidents who ran for reelection and faced no significant primary opposition all won.
Concomitantly, in all of US history only one senator - Warren G. Harding in 1920 - has ever defeated a governor - never mind a sitting POTUS - for election to the presidency. VP is not an executive position, merely political heir to the POTUS. Senators/VPs only beat other senators/VPs.
Add to that the fact that nobody who doesn’t attain at least VP less that 20 years after attaining statewide office (senator or governor) has ever been elected POTUS. New presidents are shooting stars (Clinton, Obama, Trump) much more so than old warhorses like Bob Dole and Joe Biden.
Trump is right about one thing for sure: he will have a lot to live down if he loses to Biden. Especially now that we know for certain that Biden is as crooked as the day is long (not that that was actual news . . .).
Nates a liberal pundit who pretends math is the basis for his punditry..
Polls are beyond garbage this year.
Biden is not remotely in the verge of winning, let alone winning by a Reagan/Carter or Reagan V Mondale margin.
‘Polls are crap because nobody has land lines’
so if Trump were up 7 points with two weeks to go you’d consider his odds to be crap...?
I watched the interview .a lot of election history and a good explanation of democratic early voting..how the media says they are ahead but if your money is on the line there wrong..just to get the people who like to vote for the winner
I live in a small town west of Austin. I’ve never seen a Biden yard sign in front of a residence. This is strange. At a minimum it could mean “no enthusiasm” and a stay at home voter on election day.
Another point you listed I can relate to is I don’t put signs in my yard because I’m not interested in having my property vandalized or “punked” as the Democratic Party has now sunk low enough to do.
The favt that Biden is questioning his own supposed lead is he knows the Red Wave will sink him.
In my case, my early voting location is closer to my house than my regular polling place (which did move further away this year—I guess they are consolidating due to covid or lack of volunteers or whatever).
Looking forward to Election Day—I will be so nervous all day! 2016 was such a fun party. We all waited up so long to finally find out PA was finally called for Trump and then we drank Trump sparkling wine from his winery (which is pretty good, but his still wines aren’t).
I participate in polls - I always lie. I feel its my civic duty, given the corrupt state of our fake made.
I just received a text poll yesterday. For this one, I was a lesbian Indian with six children with favorable views of Biden, voting for the Green Party.
Why Polls This Year Are Crap: A Continuing Saga.
Polls every year past, present, and future are crap. They always reflect the desire the guy paying for them wants. Always...without a doubt. Anybody who really believes them is a moron.
It doesn’t matter, he could be up 12 points or down 8, the polls are just crap shoots right now. Polls mean nothing right now.
Biden is up 20 points one day then only up be 4 and now the campaign issued a warning to supporters that don’t believe any poll that has Biden up. Tells you even they know it is all crap
Believe whatever crap you want, but I predict that Trump is going to win this, whether it is a big epic win or just barely finishing over the 270 mark is yet to be known, we will find out on election day.
Trump is acting like a winner
Biden is acting like a loser
Austin is the epicenter for Marxist proggies. That’s interesting.
I will say this. A Biden sign is safer in non-Austin Texas than a Trump poster/sticker in California.
Smart pollsters find out what results the client wants, get the money up front and then produce the results.
Ditto here and millions of others. If Trump loses the election was stolen.
I also took the Mittens Hissy Fit Vote (MacMullin) and add it back to trump. It is only significant in ID and UT
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