[BigEdLB]

A net of one sixth of people asked refuse to answer polls
when they are voting for Trump, only 6% refuse to say Biden, 23% refuse
to answer, Trump. That means only 77 % of Trump vote ia there
but 94 % of Biden vote is there. To get the true picture use some math (#? Rasmussen talked about this in August)

Here are two polls released today by Yougov
Arizona : Biden 50, Trump 47
Biden : 50 / 94% = 53.2
Trump 47/ 77% = 61.1
total = 114.2
Now adjust for Major Party Pct reported (97)
Biden: 53.2 x (97/114.2) = 45.2
Trump: 61.1 x (97/114.2) = 51.9
In Arizona a Trump 3 point deficit turns into a 7 point win

Wisconsin: Biden 51, Trump 46
Biden: 51 / 94% = 54.2
Trump: 45 / 77% = 58.4
Total= 112.7
Now adjust again vs Major (97)
Biden: 54.2 x (97/112.7) = 46.6
Trump: 58.4 X (97/112.7)= 50.3
In Wisconsin a Trump 5 point deficit becomes a 3 point win

This is the effect of Shy Trump

[BigEdLB]

Using the link above and weighting polls by age I get the chart. I took half of the Gary Johnson Vote in NM and gave it to Trump.