Posted on 10/15/2020 8:24:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A change of pace for you from all the polling doom and gloom lately. Most readers know the name Trafalgar at this point, but for the few who dont: Theyre the firm that called Trumps wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago when nearly every other pollster was predicting Clinton victories, some by blowout margins. (Trafalgar was the only outfit to find Trump ahead in Michigan in any survey taken that year.) Two years later, with the rest of the field polling field expecting an Andrew Gillum victory in Florida, Trafalgars final poll found Ron DeSantis ahead. Again, they were right, everyone else was wrong.
Their secret is that they try to adjust for social desirability bias, the reluctance of some people to tell pollsters the truth about their preferences for fear of being judged disapprovingly. Robert Cahaly, Trafalgars lead pollster, is of the belief that that effect is especially prevalent among Trump voters. If in fact there are a ton of shy Trumpers still out there who are lying to pollsters which many experts doubt then the polls this year are way off.
Except Trafalgars, perhaps. If in fact Trump performs much better on Election Day than the competition expects, and especially if he does well enough to win another term, Cahaly will instantly be the most renowned pollster in America. The rest of the polling industry will never recover its reputation. Thats whats on the line on November 3, in addition to control of the White House and Senate.
All of that is an introduction for you to the conversation below between Cahaly and Mike Pesca of Slate. If you can spare 18 minutes to listen to the whole thing, please do. Cahaly takes the listener through his approach to polling and explains the importance of social desirability bias, which he believes is even *more* pronounced this year than it was when Trump first ran for president. Thats borne out in some of his numbers over the past month, which reliably show Trump scoring five points higher or more than the polling average. Skim through the latest numbers from Michigan, the site of Cahalys most celebrated success in 2016. Of the last 11 surveys there, Biden leads by eight points or better in nine of them. In the 10th poll he leads by six.
In the 11th, from Trafalgar, he trails Trump by one. Thats an eight-point difference between Cahalys result and the current average of 7.2 points. But Cahaly isnt cowed. He tells Pesca in their chat that he thinks Michigan is the likeliest of the Rust Belt swing states to stay red this year, which completely contradicts the conventional wisdom that Michigan is actually Trumps toughest hold in the region. In fact, Trump had been off the air in the state from late July until a few days ago, when he began running ads again. Id been wondering lately if he was going to give up on the state altogether and focus his efforts on Pennsylvania, treating MI as a lost cause. On the contrary, says Cahaly. Expect another win in Michigan.
Its hard to overstate just how far off the beaten path his numbers are relative to everyone elses, including pollsters that tend to be friendlier to Biden. Trafalgar isnt just expecting shy Trump voters to be a factor. Theyre expecting them to be a massive factor:
What's also interesting about Trafalgar is that they're always biased toward Trump by about the same amount, unlike Quinnipiac where they do have a handful of polls that are better than the average for Trump.
https://t.co/KxJa7WMQJv Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2020
Via RCP, here are the latest Trafalgar numbers from battlegrounds (although bear in mind that some of these are close to a month old):
Florida: Trump by two
Pennsylvania: Biden by two
Wisconsin: Biden by three
North Carolina: Trump by two
Michigan: Trump by one
Ohio: Trump by four
Arizona: Trump by four
If all of those results held on Election Day, assuming no unlikely Biden victories elsewhere, Trump would win 276-262. Thats right in line with Cahalys forecast for the election, which he delivers to Pesca at 26:00 of the clip below Trump in the mid-270 range. Which is the most encouraging polling news Team MAGA has had in months.
But dont get too cocky. Look back again at the numbers above and notice how tight the margins are. A polling miss of two or three points would be perfectly ordinary for any pollster, yet Cahalys prediction depends upon him missing nowhere. If Biden fares just two points better in Michigan than Trafalgar expects, hell be president. If hes three points better in Florida and North Carolina, hell be president comfortably. And as impressive as Cahalys 2016 polling was, he *did* overshoot the mark on Trump in Michigan, predicting a two-point victory in a state the president won by just three-tenths of a point. If Trafalgars current Michigan numbers are off by the same margin, Biden would win the White House by the skin of his teeth.
Theres no margin for error. The interview with Pesca starts at 10:30 below.
That’s a squeaker.
While a win is a win, a mid 270s count would not be enough to stop the DEMs from “vote counting” and steal one more state.
3334thewin!
Trump4moreyears!
AllahPundit is a moron. Of course if Cahaly is off in WI and PA, then Trump repeats 2016.
..how about 363 instead?
That means that Biden would have to run the table winning all the swing states and that just seems impossible. Instead, Trump is going to win by a large popular vote margin and a near record electoral vote margin.
He is. What is the story with using a moniker?. What does this clown have to hide? Use your real name, this is not grammar school.
I predict 324 EVs for DJT and that is not subject to change.
“Crucially, Mr Trumps lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trumps win in 2016, only considers people who identify as likely voters rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.”
I’d like to think that picking up NH, NV and/or MN might allow a little breathing room.
Still cannot fathom how such an extraordinary leader like PDJT is literally fighting for all our lives against a woefully pathetic opponent such as Biden
Trump will be in the 320ish range +/- 10
At the minimum, I expect Trump to take the states he took in 2016. That’s a low 300s victory.
His campaign is better than 2016 and he has 4 years of great success. His base is even more energized than 2016.
My assessment of Biden is that he is a worse candidate than Hillary, but someone pointed out he’s more likable. Maybe. That’s a low bar to clear.
My range for Trump’s victory is 300-355. That’s not allowing for any states to be lost by fraud. If we lose one or two states to fraud, then we’re at 270-325.
Im predicting 274. Biden takes Michigan but Trump takes Wisconsin and a surprise in New Hampshire.
Great interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) here where he breaks down his very successful polling method (Correct in both 2016 and 2018) and gives his predictions for 4 battleground states:
https://luckboxmagazine.com/TPT/
He thinks the shy Trump voter numbers are even higher this year than in 2016.
And sets the record straight that he still does not add anything to the Trump numbers to make up for that (as others had accused.) He just uses a lot more platforms to try to reach more of the those voters who are VERY reluctant to respond to polls.
Also, this was interesting....he said Republicans are hard to poll because they are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Also said that they see lots of voters who say they are going to vote for Biden but based on how they answered other questions like do you approve of fracking (they do); do you support strict constructionist supreme court justices (they do); do you support defunding the police (they dont.) he believes they are lying about voting for Biden but he still records them as Biden voters...:-)
Said his polls show Trump is doing great with Hispanic and black voters. His polls predict mid to high teens for black vote. Said Trump actually got 10% of the black vote in 2016 even though exit polls showed 8%. Said voters who dont want to disclose they are voting for Trump over the phone sure dont want to admit it to a kid with a clip board after voting...:-)
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett will stop any counting beyond 1 week. I think Trump will win about 280 electoral college votes.
If the silent Trump vote is 2%, he has a chance of winning. At 4% it is likely Trump wins. Between 2% and 4% it becomes a question of turnout.
_______________________________________
Pollsters say the shy Trump voter is now larger than in 2016. In recent PA poll 65% of voters said there is a significant shy vote. 30% of respondents say they are uncomfortable disclosing who they will vote for.
Recent Bloomberg study says 11% of Republicans; 10% of Independents and 5% of Democrats will not disclose who they intend to vote for.
Response rates for polls have plummeted (now down to 1-2%) Republicans are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Currently polls have no way to capture the shy vote so polls are now totally inaccurate.
Trump is going to add to his electoral college win from 2016
I am Praying Trump takes Mi. and brings John James with him!! People in Michigan are PISSED I think Trump has a shot!!
James is polling slightly ahead of Trump. This is the Senate seat Cahaly thinks Republicans have the best chance of taking from the dems.
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