“If the silent Trump vote is 2%, he has a chance of winning. At 4% it is likely Trump wins. Between 2% and 4% it becomes a question of turnout.”
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Pollsters say the “shy” Trump voter is now larger than in 2016. In recent PA poll 65% of voters said there is a significant “shy” vote. 30% of respondents say they are uncomfortable disclosing who they will vote for.
Recent Bloomberg study says 11% of Republicans; 10% of Independents and 5% of Democrats will not disclose who they intend to vote for.
Response rates for polls have plummeted (now down to 1-2%) Republicans are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Currently polls have no way to capture the shy vote so polls are now totally inaccurate.
274 would be hollow in that mostly would mean they would get the Senate. I mean i’ll take it, but I really would like to keep the Senate.