Great interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) here where he breaks down his very successful polling method (Correct in both 2016 and 2018) and gives his predictions for 4 battleground states:
https://luckboxmagazine.com/TPT/
He thinks the “shy Trump voter” numbers are even higher this year than in 2016.
And sets the record straight that he still does not add anything to the Trump numbers to make up for that (as others had accused.) He just uses a lot more platforms to try to reach more of the those voters who are VERY reluctant to respond to polls.
Also, this was interesting....he said Republicans are hard to poll because they are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Also said that they see lots of voters who say they are going to vote for Biden but based on how they answered other questions like do you approve of fracking (they do); do you support strict constructionist supreme court justices (they do); do you support defunding the police (they don’t.) he believes they are lying about voting for Biden but he still records them as Biden voters...:-)
Said his polls show Trump is doing great with Hispanic and black voters. His polls predict mid to high teens for black vote. Said Trump actually got 10% of the black vote in 2016 even though exit polls showed 8%. Said voters who don’t want to disclose they are voting for Trump over the phone sure don’t want to admit it to a kid with a clip board after voting...:-)
“If the silent Trump vote is 2%, he has a chance of winning. At 4% it is likely Trump wins. Between 2% and 4% it becomes a question of turnout.”
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Pollsters say the “shy” Trump voter is now larger than in 2016. In recent PA poll 65% of voters said there is a significant “shy” vote. 30% of respondents say they are uncomfortable disclosing who they will vote for.
Recent Bloomberg study says 11% of Republicans; 10% of Independents and 5% of Democrats will not disclose who they intend to vote for.
Response rates for polls have plummeted (now down to 1-2%) Republicans are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.
Currently polls have no way to capture the shy vote so polls are now totally inaccurate.
“Also, this was interesting....he said Republicans are hard to poll because they are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general.”
Many of the polls don’t even try to reach out to Republicans nearly as hard as they do Democrats. Up until this Spring, I’ve always been registered GOP. Never, not once, did I have a single pollster reach out to me during that tine: This spring- because I live in a state where you can do so- I switched to Democrat in the primary season to try to keep Sanders out. Sanders scares the crap out of me and I saw Joe as a weaker threat to Trump. So I switched to vote for Joe in the primary. In the months since I’ve been a Dem on the books (I am switching back next election) I have had several pollsters reach out to me. Again, when I was a Republican on the books for many years, I had ZERO.
Coincidence? Possibly. But it just seems too bizarre to be one.