Posted on 10/06/2020 2:45:48 PM PDT by Coop
It’s been many years since I’ve publicly posted on Free Republic (I briefly posted under another screen name in late 2008). Once in a blue moon (usually around elections) I have remained in touch with certain folks via FReepmail. What used to be a site filled with interesting information and analysis is now sadly overrun with people who most often can’t even be bothered to read an article before making well-informed [cough] posts on how so-and-so can’t possibly win a certain state, or Person X should sue Person Y (when an article’s second sentence clearly spells out such litigation). But for those who may be interested in some election data/analysis, read on.
In 2016 I was an unenthusiastic Trump voter (but a very enthusiastic anti-Clinton vote). Despite his annoying behavior at times, POTUS has won me over with his work on the economy, regulations, judicial nominations (!!) and even Middle East peace efforts. I have even made modest monetary donations to Trump & other Republicans, something I haven’t done in probably 15+ years. So I can’t fathom why so many supposed “conservatives” on this site are working so hard to convince themselves and everyone else as to why Trump may or will lose. Although a few are undoubtedly trolls, for many I suspect it’s extreme laziness. Conservatives have always been incredibly lazy when it comes to politics. Great at griping around the (cyber) water cooler, but lousy at doing anything beyond that. The left runs circles around us when it comes to passion and organization. My old friends from the D.C. Chapter were notable exceptions.
“But Coop – we have jobs!!” Yeah, well so do liberals. Why do you think there are so many liberal billionaires? Yet they find time to actually put effort into causes they believe in. I extend such conservative laziness to an unwillingness to do basic research on elections prior to rendering one’s opinion. God forbid we should ask posters around here to link to various conservative candidates running for election or at least promote their candidacies and applaud folks who are willing to step into the fray. But no, we’re far more likely to post “Give it up! She will never win in [xxxxxx].” or “He doesn’t have a prayer” or “It’s not enough to overcome vote fraud!”
Polls:
Many polls show Biden winning handily, often by double digits. Really? Does that make sense, that an incumbent president with a strong economy would lose by double digits? Do you know the last time an incumbent POTUS lost by 10+ points? 1932 – Herbert Hoover, during the Great Depression. Even Jimmy Carter, with a crappy economy, a very strong opponent and a strong 3rd party vote lost by 9.7 points.
No wait, Trump is surging in the polls! Seriously? Well, then you have to believe the garbage polls showing Trump trailing badly to now believe he is surging. No thanks. The polls were a joke in 2016, and four years later it’s like the entire country learned nothing. But if you really believe the pollsters corrected their errors this time around, then fine. I disagree, but respect that you may be right and I may be wrong. We won’t know for sure until after the election. However, if Biden is in such great electoral shape, we should be able to find some evidence supporting the dementia-ridden Dem candidate’s large and steady lead over the president. Read on…
I do sort of pay attention to the Rasmussen daily POTUS approval tracking poll since it’s been going on so long. It captures trends well. This summer/fall Trump has been even or above Obama’s approval level when Barack Hussein was comfortably re-elected in 2012. Rather interesting, yes?
Fundraising:
If 2020 polls match 2016, then how does fundraising stack up? In 2016 Trump was outspent over 2:1 by Clinton. This year Biden will be ahead of Trump, but Sleepy Joe will not double the president’s haul. And Pres. Trump will be spending WAY more than his $285M last time around. I suspect the left will lead 3rd party spending, but 2020 spending should be much more even than the first go ‘round. Plus Pres. Trump has the bully pulpit in his favor now. Money definitely isn’t everything (ask Hillary), but Trump has more money to advertise, conduct rallies, and get a solid ground game in place.
https://moneymorning.com/2016/11/10/final-sum-clinton-outspent-trump-over-21/
Candidate:
I despise Hillary Clinton, but she was fairly articulate and reasonably intelligent. And she didn’t go around groping little children and sniffing hair (at least publicly). She also had the excitement of potentially making history as the first woman U.S. president. Her crowds couldn’t compete with Trump’s, but compared to Sleepy Joe’s events she was a rock star. Yet it still wasn’t enough. But we’re supposed to believe this bumbling, creepy clown who can’t string 3 error-free sentences together is going to beat POTUS handily? Interestingly both Dem candidates (2016 and 2020) had serious ailments the media tried desperately to hide. Didn’t work the first time around. Will it this time?
Enthusiasm:
Rallies, Trump flotillas, Trump parades, and Walkaway marches versus two people on a train car and white circles separating 7 Biden “rally” attendees. Anecdotal? Perhaps… but it was also anecdotal in 2016. How did that turn out? Trump won four years ago with GOP approval in the mid 70s (kinda weak). As President he’s been in the mid 80s to low 90s for GOP approval. Pew. Since last election Pres. Trump has gained support among his base, which is at least somewhat reflected in voter registration numbers and fundraising.
Voter Registration Statistics:
I’ve enjoyed the data-laden posts by Ravi, TexasGurl24, SpeedyinTexas, and LS. Whether or not you agree with them, they have data/historical precedents to back up their positions and often information on districts and candidates. Wish we had more posters following that model. Stats from three key states are a big reason why I think the 2020 polls are not realistic.
I really do not even consider the Tarheel State a swing state in this election. Between the registration numbers and Gary Johnson not taking 2.8% of the NC vote, I think Trump’s 3.8-point margin of victory in 2016 looks more like 7-8 points now. And because of that expected presidential margin I think Sen. Thom Tillis will keep his seat (I originally typed this before his married opponent admitted to sexting another military veteran’s “historically sexy” wife).
For 2016 election results I use Politico. For voter registration statistics to go to the appropriate SecState or Voter Registrar websites.
Third party candidates:
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this addressed, but in 2016 third party candidates were unusually strong. Not Jill Stein the Green Party (read: liberal) candidate, but rather two Republicans (Gary Johnson – Libertarian) and Evan McMullin (Independent). Gary routinely took 3-4% of the vote instead of a Libertarian’s normal 1-2%, even in the states where Evan McMullin was peeling another 1-2 points off the main total, both presumably at Trump’s expense. Neither of them is running this year.
People are finally starting to come around that Minnesota is in play, since the Trump campaign has been visiting there so much. But it’s been in play for the past four years. True, MN hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972. But what’s not discussed is in 2016 the Republicans (Trump, Johnson, McMullin) took 51.1% of the MN vote, while Clinton/Stein took only 48.2%. By visiting MN Trump is not only trying to accomplish a 20-vote electoral swing (flipping MN’s 10 votes from D column to R), but the Minneapolis/St. Paul media market also bleeds into western WI, another key electoral state. Plus, the GOP is trying to flip two House seats from D to R (U.S. Marine Tyler Kistner in MN-02 and LtGov Michelle Fischbach in MN-07).
I have seen many people stating that there’s no way Pres. Trump can win VA, that’s it’s “deep blue” or other such comments. I find such opinions misinformed at best. In 2016 Trump lost VA by 4.9 points, with Gov/Sen Tim Kaine on the Dem ticket. Johnson earned 3.0% of the vote, while McMullin took another 1.4%. Stein only took 0.7%, presumably from Clinton. For simplicity’s sake, presume all GOP votes go to Trump and all lib votes go to Biden. Suddenly that 4.9-point deficit becomes only 1.2 points. 4.9 minus Johnson/McMullin (3.0+1.4) = 0.5, add on Stein’s 0.7 = 1.2. A much more manageable deficit, even if northern VA is blue. And neither Biden nor Harris are from VA. I was encouraged by Trump’s visit to Newport News. He was trying to help Scott Taylor (VA-02) and Nick Freitas (VA-07) flip a couple of House seats to take the gavel away from Pelosi. If the Trump campaign made a real play (read: $$) for VA’s votes, I’m confident he’d win. But since he doesn’t need VA’s 13 votes to win re-election, I’m not sure if VA ultimately falls into his column. By the way, US Army LTC Daniel Gade is the Republican trying to take Mark Warner’s Senate seat away from him.
RNC (Republican National Committee):
For all you geniuses who again and again post how you’ll only donate to Trump and never to the RNC - 25% of every Trump donation goes to the RNC!!!
By the way, if it weren’t for the RNC, there would be no President Trump. Period. Reince Priebus was not The Donald’s first chief of staff because of his good looks. He delivered WI to Trump… and Sen. Ron Johnson. You remember him, right? Dead Man Walking? Johnson led in exactly one poll, while Feingold led in 29 (most by double digits). Well, Ron Johnson won a second term by 3.4 points… thanks to the RNC’s WI ground operation. Ronna McDaniel Romney did not become RNC Chair because DJT and Mitt are best buds. She helped deliver MI to Trump. Perhaps some here don’t understand the RNC’s role. It is responsible for GOP messaging and get-out-the-vote operations, among other things. Trump kinda benefits from that, don’t ya think?!? Not to mention all the down-ballot candidates.
Ground game:
Up until a few days ago, Biden had no ground game. No sooner did his campaign announce it was mounting a late ground game (gee, I wonder why?), Pres. Trump, FLOTUS and many other Republicans popped positive for COVID-19. Will the Biden campaign change their plans? I dunno. In 2016 Trump did not get nearly enough help from Republicans, in my opinion. Yet he still won. This time around he has had operations in key states for well over a year. And the president has a lot more money at his disposal. While Biden and the DNC hide in the basement, the RNC and Trump folks have done this: Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks
Where’s Pres. Trump campaigning?
Recent rallies have been held in VA, FL, OH, MN, AZ, PA and WI. None in GA or TX. I thought both those states were supposedly in play?? Certainly they would be if Joe were up by double digits. Not to mention IA (where the GOP has a chance to flip 3 House seats that Trump won by 3-4 points.) And there was a recent rally in Nevada. Yes, despite much bleating here that Trump could never win NV, that’s a ridiculous assumption. Trump lost NV in 2016 by 2.4 points, a whopping ~26K votes. As of 9/1 the NV GOP had made a net gain of nearly 6K votes. Gary Johnson took over 37K votes, while “None of these candidates” scored another nearly 29K votes. Plus NV-03 is another Republican-leaning House district the GOP’s Dan Rodimer is trying to win back. While it’s not a shoo-in, the Trump campaign can definitely flip NV. And just today I saw an article that Trump was pulling advertising $$ from Ohio. No Republican wins without OH. Trump knows he has OH sewn up. He won OH by 8.6 points in 2016 (G. Johnson earned 3.2%); this year I think POTUS might win the Buckeye State by double digits.
Vote fraud:
Yes, I’ve heard all the complaints about voter fraud since I started following politics two plus decades ago. It usually strikes me as someone’s lazy way of saying “It’s no use for me to volunteer or do anything. All is lost!” If ever there was an election where vote fraud could/should have swung things for the Democrats, 2016 should have been it. Contrary to popular belief, Trump voters did not overwhelm the Democrat cheating machine. Clinton underperformed Obama. Clinton received fewer votes than Obama did in 87 percent of U.S. counties. Yet the vaunted Dem vote fraud machine couldn’t deliver small margins in PA, MI and WI?
If you’re really worried about voter fraud, do something about it. Vote, drag like-minded friends and family to vote, volunteer for campaigns, and work as an election official or poll watcher.
Right after the election I made my POTUS election predictions, and I have Trump taking 351 electoral votes (with OR and NM as toss-ups). Yes, it’s optimistic. Biden could conceivably win. He’s got tons of money, an adoring media, and a lot of very favorable polls. But then again, so did Hillary, and Biden has more weaknesses. As of right now I see no reason to change my predictions. Do yourselves a favor and read some of Speedy’s threads on vote by mail, or Ravi’s on voter registration. The statistics are encouraging. Although the stat do not mean Trump is guaranteed to win, people around here should be fired up and helping with the “final sprint”, not wringing their hands. Many Americans are sick of the left’s violence, the riots, assaults on law enforcement (by “mostly peaceful protesters” and politicians/DAs), the economic destruction, the mask Nazis, etc. Hopefully that translates into a strong GOP vote on 11/3.
House of Representatives:
The GOP needs a gain of 17 seats to win back the Speakership. There are 30 Democrats sitting in districts Trump won (9 by a margin of 3 points or fewer, 13 by a margin of 3-7 points, and 8 by a margin of more than 7 points). Meanwhile only three Republicans sit in districts Clinton won (by 2-4 points). A solid Trump performance will drag many of these seats back into the R column. It would be nice to see more articles on these races, along with candidate websites.
Senate:
We have a current 53-47 GOP lead, which is virtually a tie with back-stabbing Romney, Murkowski and Collins. Coach Tommy Tuberville is in good position to take back the AL seat, and if the Trump/RNC team perform well in MI then John James has a pretty good shot at stealing Gary Peters’ seat. If Trump does well in MN, I could see Jayson Lewis pulling an upset over Sen. Tina Smith. A dark horse could be well known weatherman Mark Ronchetti in NM, taking over for retiring Tom Udall. But Mark is being seriously outspent. Maybe a recovered Trump will make a left turn at Albuquerque on his way to/from AZ, NV or CO. Speaking of CO, Sen. Cory Gardner may be hurting in the polls, but remember… so was Ron Johnson, by a much larger margin. And I think GOP turnout in AZ drags Sen. Martha McSally across the finish line.
One more thing:
Even folks trapped in CA, IL or NY can help Trump win the popular vote and drive a rhetorical dagger through the hearts of liberals. And help down-ballot conservatives get elected to office at the same time. After witnessing a sham impeachment, the Kavanaugh hit job, Wuhan Virus lock downs, and nationwide riots, there’s no excuse not to be doing something for the next month to defeat Democrats everywhere, even in my Podunk town.
If Pres. Trump does lose and/or the GOP loses the Senate, most around here will undoubtedly be blaming the GOPe, the deep state, RINOs, the media, the Bushies (especially one clown who can barely go two posts without mentioning Bush League Republicans), basically blaming everyone except the person staring back at them from the mirror.
Think I’m exaggerating or being unfair? In 2014 Ed Gillespie trailed in the sacred polls to Mark Warner in a VA Senate race. FReepers fell all over themselves saying how there was no way Ed could win… VA was turning blue… Warner was too strong… blah, blah, blah. Warner led every single poll, with his largest margin 29 points! Ed Gillespie lost by 0.8 points. Had FR simply rallied around a Republican, posted links to his campaign website, donated time and money, and/or just posted well wishes and talked up his chances, we would not have endured the Kavanaugh crap in 2018. We would have had one fewer Dem and one more Pubbie, neutering Jeff Flake, Murkowski, etc.
“But Coop, Ed’s a Bushie!!!” Whoop dee doo. I’m confident Ed Gillespie would have been a huge improvement over Mark Warner. But thanks to all the negativity and knee-capping we’ll never know. So if you can’t be bothered to get off your duffs and help elect conservatives and DESTROY the rioting, violent, hate-filled Democrats at the ballot box, maybe you could find it in your hearts to at least be positive and supportive of those trying to make America a better place?!? Even if you don’t know how to post a link, copy and paste the path to a campaign website.
I took my probabilistic model for a spin this morning, running it through a Solver optimizing model to study the effect of over-sampling bias on the current polls.
Based on the state of polling today (with statespoll.com demographic adjustments), President Trump's probability-weighted average is 217.05 Electoral College votes, with an 18% chance of winning.
However, if we take away 2.11% from Biden polls and give it to Trump, the election becomes tied at 269. Taking away 2.15% makes it a 270-268 Trump win, with a 51% chance of winning.
In order for President Trump to get his 2016 result of 306 Electoral College votes (ignoring faithless electors), 3.62% would have to be taken away from Biden and given to Trump. This gives Trump a 75% probability of winning.
The conclusion is this:
If you believe that the polls are grossly over-sampling Democrats, a 2.1% swing to Trump makes it a tied election, and a 3.6% swing gives Trump a 2016 victory, probabilistically.
The question to ask is if these swings fit one's sense of over-sampling correction or not?
-PJ
You’re welcome. But three hearts?!? Easy. I’m no spring chicken anymore!
Ping
I’ve almost completely ignored polls this election cycle. They were so wrong in 2016, why would I believe them now? I also included the Ron Johnson and Ed Gillespie (with many more out there) examples just to show how often the polls are skewed left. What I’ve done instead is use 2016 as a baseline, and then reviewed various categories such as registration, fundraising, etc. Have things improved for Trump or worsened? The only negative I could really come up with is the Wuhan Virus. That was a real gift to the Democrats, but they blew it the first two weeks of June. Having for many weeks told all of America the worst thing one could do was not wear a mask or socially distance, suddenly it was fine for rioters to mob the streets, right on top of each other, some with no masks. Perhaps the burning police cars killed the virus?
Thanks for the excellent, informative post. I have been here nearly 20 years and recall when there were many more posts like this. I still miss Common Tator to this day. In any event, thank you. I read every word.
Virginia goes red this year. Just saying.
In this case, I'm looking at how sensitive the result is to polling error. All it takes is these over-sampled polls to take 2% away from Biden and give it to Trump for the polls to say the election is tied. Make it 3.5% percent, and Trump wins like 2016.
That means an NBC poll that is Biden +12 can actually be Biden by 8.5% (and those Biden +3 are really Trump +0.5, etc.), and Trump is really ahead.
So, for a poll non-believer, is a 2% to 3.5% error what they are thinking is the likely case? If so, then President Trump is likely to be winning.
-PJ
“Not to mention IA (where the GOP has a chance to flip 3 House seats that Trump won by 3-4 points.)”
This would be too marvelous for words! I can’t stand our Dem rep.
Good posting, I enjoyed it.
For your info, tonight I saw a Biden commercial here in the Richmond area. That makes me think VA is in play. I think NOVA might not be as strong for the rats as in previous years due to the school shutdowns and rioting in next door DC.
Your analysis of the 3rd parties provides an added dimension I haven’t seen before. While libertarians will never vote GOP, despite what those who don’t know them think, the bill cristol 3rd party voters will most likely come home.
The data mining Parscale was doing on rally participants also provides positive support. If you have some insight into that area I would like to see it in a future posting.
If the next debate happens they need a signal jammer to cut off Biden’s earpiece.
This is excellent! Very rarely do I read ever word of a post but this was good and honest: I only think you left out New Hampshire and the college kid problem for democrats. I’ve noticed that subject is taboo to discuss around here and I’m not sure why. I’ve tried to nudge a discussion about it but it falls flat everytime. A mystery to me. It just makes sense to at least analyze if NH is in play when you consider that trump lost it by such a small margin in 2016 and students won the state for Hillary. But I guess many don’t think analysis is worth the effort. Not much more to say.
Good job on this very informative and excellent analysis.
I would like Donald Trump to start hammering the point that he needs help in the House so we can get things done. We can stop with Nancy Pelosi from obstructing all legislation for political reasons. We need the House so they no longer waste time and money on endless investigations over hoaxes.
Some news from “the Hill” yesterday about Trump campaign cancelling ads in OH and IA [not sure I’m allowed to link]. The gist is the campaign says they are extremely confident about winning both so they’re shifting money. This conclusion is backed by pollster Richard Baris (@Peoples_Pundit) if you watch his periscopes. He says IA shows a leftward swing since 2016 but is still a ‘hold’.
That’s actually not so interesting as the Biden campaign is shifting ad money out of TX [giving up] to MN! That’s a state a Republican hasn’t carried since the 1970’s! Obviously it’s slipping badly as a ‘blue state’. This conclusion is also backed by pollster Richard Baris.
“His campaign canceled $1.5 million in TV ads in Texas for next week and $420,000 in Virginia and $370,000 in Colorado for the week starting Tuesday. The former vice president also added $1.2 million in ad reservations in Minnesota. “
Placemark to read later.
p
Well done, sir
Ah yes, I recall Common Tator, Dales, and several others who taught me quite a bit.
I picked it, but VA's the state I feel I'm most likely to miss. Again, if Trump were mounting a real campaign in the Old Dominion I'd be much more optimistic.
I should have also mentioned that Army LTC and Sen. Joni Ernst is running for re-election in Iowa.
I’m not as ‘inside’ in the Iowa GOP as I used to be, but the inside geeks I hear from think both Trump and Ernst will win by up to 10% in Iowa.
Even week candidate Miller-Meeks seems to have a real chance this time, which I think is her 4th try!
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