Posted on 10/06/2020 2:45:48 PM PDT by Coop
Its been many years since Ive publicly posted on Free Republic (I briefly posted under another screen name in late 2008). Once in a blue moon (usually around elections) I have remained in touch with certain folks via FReepmail. What used to be a site filled with interesting information and analysis is now sadly overrun with people who most often cant even be bothered to read an article before making well-informed [cough] posts on how so-and-so cant possibly win a certain state, or Person X should sue Person Y (when an articles second sentence clearly spells out such litigation). But for those who may be interested in some election data/analysis, read on.
In 2016 I was an unenthusiastic Trump voter (but a very enthusiastic anti-Clinton vote). Despite his annoying behavior at times, POTUS has won me over with his work on the economy, regulations, judicial nominations (!!) and even Middle East peace efforts. I have even made modest monetary donations to Trump & other Republicans, something I havent done in probably 15+ years. So I cant fathom why so many supposed conservatives on this site are working so hard to convince themselves and everyone else as to why Trump may or will lose. Although a few are undoubtedly trolls, for many I suspect its extreme laziness. Conservatives have always been incredibly lazy when it comes to politics. Great at griping around the (cyber) water cooler, but lousy at doing anything beyond that. The left runs circles around us when it comes to passion and organization. My old friends from the D.C. Chapter were notable exceptions.
But Coop we have jobs!! Yeah, well so do liberals. Why do you think there are so many liberal billionaires? Yet they find time to actually put effort into causes they believe in. I extend such conservative laziness to an unwillingness to do basic research on elections prior to rendering ones opinion. God forbid we should ask posters around here to link to various conservative candidates running for election or at least promote their candidacies and applaud folks who are willing to step into the fray. But no, were far more likely to post Give it up! She will never win in [xxxxxx]. or He doesnt have a prayer or Its not enough to overcome vote fraud!
Polls:
Many polls show Biden winning handily, often by double digits. Really? Does that make sense, that an incumbent president with a strong economy would lose by double digits? Do you know the last time an incumbent POTUS lost by 10+ points? 1932 Herbert Hoover, during the Great Depression. Even Jimmy Carter, with a crappy economy, a very strong opponent and a strong 3rd party vote lost by 9.7 points.
No wait, Trump is surging in the polls! Seriously? Well, then you have to believe the garbage polls showing Trump trailing badly to now believe he is surging. No thanks. The polls were a joke in 2016, and four years later its like the entire country learned nothing. But if you really believe the pollsters corrected their errors this time around, then fine. I disagree, but respect that you may be right and I may be wrong. We wont know for sure until after the election. However, if Biden is in such great electoral shape, we should be able to find some evidence supporting the dementia-ridden Dem candidates large and steady lead over the president. Read on
I do sort of pay attention to the Rasmussen daily POTUS approval tracking poll since its been going on so long. It captures trends well. This summer/fall Trump has been even or above Obamas approval level when Barack Hussein was comfortably re-elected in 2012. Rather interesting, yes?
Fundraising:
If 2020 polls match 2016, then how does fundraising stack up? In 2016 Trump was outspent over 2:1 by Clinton. This year Biden will be ahead of Trump, but Sleepy Joe will not double the presidents haul. And Pres. Trump will be spending WAY more than his $285M last time around. I suspect the left will lead 3rd party spending, but 2020 spending should be much more even than the first go round. Plus Pres. Trump has the bully pulpit in his favor now. Money definitely isnt everything (ask Hillary), but Trump has more money to advertise, conduct rallies, and get a solid ground game in place.
https://moneymorning.com/2016/11/10/final-sum-clinton-outspent-trump-over-21/
Candidate:
I despise Hillary Clinton, but she was fairly articulate and reasonably intelligent. And she didnt go around groping little children and sniffing hair (at least publicly). She also had the excitement of potentially making history as the first woman U.S. president. Her crowds couldnt compete with Trumps, but compared to Sleepy Joes events she was a rock star. Yet it still wasnt enough. But were supposed to believe this bumbling, creepy clown who cant string 3 error-free sentences together is going to beat POTUS handily? Interestingly both Dem candidates (2016 and 2020) had serious ailments the media tried desperately to hide. Didnt work the first time around. Will it this time?
Enthusiasm:
Rallies, Trump flotillas, Trump parades, and Walkaway marches versus two people on a train car and white circles separating 7 Biden rally attendees. Anecdotal? Perhaps
but it was also anecdotal in 2016. How did that turn out? Trump won four years ago with GOP approval in the mid 70s (kinda weak). As President hes been in the mid 80s to low 90s for GOP approval. Pew. Since last election Pres. Trump has gained support among his base, which is at least somewhat reflected in voter registration numbers and fundraising.
Voter Registration Statistics:
Ive enjoyed the data-laden posts by Ravi, TexasGurl24, SpeedyinTexas, and LS. Whether or not you agree with them, they have data/historical precedents to back up their positions and often information on districts and candidates. Wish we had more posters following that model. Stats from three key states are a big reason why I think the 2020 polls are not realistic.
I really do not even consider the Tarheel State a swing state in this election. Between the registration numbers and Gary Johnson not taking 2.8% of the NC vote, I think Trumps 3.8-point margin of victory in 2016 looks more like 7-8 points now. And because of that expected presidential margin I think Sen. Thom Tillis will keep his seat (I originally typed this before his married opponent admitted to sexting another military veterans historically sexy wife).
For 2016 election results I use Politico. For voter registration statistics to go to the appropriate SecState or Voter Registrar websites.
Third party candidates:
Im not sure Ive ever seen this addressed, but in 2016 third party candidates were unusually strong. Not Jill Stein the Green Party (read: liberal) candidate, but rather two Republicans (Gary Johnson Libertarian) and Evan McMullin (Independent). Gary routinely took 3-4% of the vote instead of a Libertarians normal 1-2%, even in the states where Evan McMullin was peeling another 1-2 points off the main total, both presumably at Trumps expense. Neither of them is running this year.
People are finally starting to come around that Minnesota is in play, since the Trump campaign has been visiting there so much. But its been in play for the past four years. True, MN hasnt voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972. But whats not discussed is in 2016 the Republicans (Trump, Johnson, McMullin) took 51.1% of the MN vote, while Clinton/Stein took only 48.2%. By visiting MN Trump is not only trying to accomplish a 20-vote electoral swing (flipping MNs 10 votes from D column to R), but the Minneapolis/St. Paul media market also bleeds into western WI, another key electoral state. Plus, the GOP is trying to flip two House seats from D to R (U.S. Marine Tyler Kistner in MN-02 and LtGov Michelle Fischbach in MN-07).
I have seen many people stating that theres no way Pres. Trump can win VA, thats its deep blue or other such comments. I find such opinions misinformed at best. In 2016 Trump lost VA by 4.9 points, with Gov/Sen Tim Kaine on the Dem ticket. Johnson earned 3.0% of the vote, while McMullin took another 1.4%. Stein only took 0.7%, presumably from Clinton. For simplicitys sake, presume all GOP votes go to Trump and all lib votes go to Biden. Suddenly that 4.9-point deficit becomes only 1.2 points. 4.9 minus Johnson/McMullin (3.0+1.4) = 0.5, add on Steins 0.7 = 1.2. A much more manageable deficit, even if northern VA is blue. And neither Biden nor Harris are from VA. I was encouraged by Trumps visit to Newport News. He was trying to help Scott Taylor (VA-02) and Nick Freitas (VA-07) flip a couple of House seats to take the gavel away from Pelosi. If the Trump campaign made a real play (read: $$) for VAs votes, Im confident hed win. But since he doesnt need VAs 13 votes to win re-election, Im not sure if VA ultimately falls into his column. By the way, US Army LTC Daniel Gade is the Republican trying to take Mark Warners Senate seat away from him.
RNC (Republican National Committee):
For all you geniuses who again and again post how youll only donate to Trump and never to the RNC - 25% of every Trump donation goes to the RNC!!!
By the way, if it werent for the RNC, there would be no President Trump. Period. Reince Priebus was not The Donalds first chief of staff because of his good looks. He delivered WI to Trump and Sen. Ron Johnson. You remember him, right? Dead Man Walking? Johnson led in exactly one poll, while Feingold led in 29 (most by double digits). Well, Ron Johnson won a second term by 3.4 points thanks to the RNCs WI ground operation. Ronna McDaniel Romney did not become RNC Chair because DJT and Mitt are best buds. She helped deliver MI to Trump. Perhaps some here dont understand the RNCs role. It is responsible for GOP messaging and get-out-the-vote operations, among other things. Trump kinda benefits from that, dont ya think?!? Not to mention all the down-ballot candidates.
Ground game:
Up until a few days ago, Biden had no ground game. No sooner did his campaign announce it was mounting a late ground game (gee, I wonder why?), Pres. Trump, FLOTUS and many other Republicans popped positive for COVID-19. Will the Biden campaign change their plans? I dunno. In 2016 Trump did not get nearly enough help from Republicans, in my opinion. Yet he still won. This time around he has had operations in key states for well over a year. And the president has a lot more money at his disposal. While Biden and the DNC hide in the basement, the RNC and Trump folks have done this: Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks
Wheres Pres. Trump campaigning?
Recent rallies have been held in VA, FL, OH, MN, AZ, PA and WI. None in GA or TX. I thought both those states were supposedly in play?? Certainly they would be if Joe were up by double digits. Not to mention IA (where the GOP has a chance to flip 3 House seats that Trump won by 3-4 points.) And there was a recent rally in Nevada. Yes, despite much bleating here that Trump could never win NV, thats a ridiculous assumption. Trump lost NV in 2016 by 2.4 points, a whopping ~26K votes. As of 9/1 the NV GOP had made a net gain of nearly 6K votes. Gary Johnson took over 37K votes, while None of these candidates scored another nearly 29K votes. Plus NV-03 is another Republican-leaning House district the GOPs Dan Rodimer is trying to win back. While its not a shoo-in, the Trump campaign can definitely flip NV. And just today I saw an article that Trump was pulling advertising $$ from Ohio. No Republican wins without OH. Trump knows he has OH sewn up. He won OH by 8.6 points in 2016 (G. Johnson earned 3.2%); this year I think POTUS might win the Buckeye State by double digits.
Vote fraud:
Yes, Ive heard all the complaints about voter fraud since I started following politics two plus decades ago. It usually strikes me as someones lazy way of saying Its no use for me to volunteer or do anything. All is lost! If ever there was an election where vote fraud could/should have swung things for the Democrats, 2016 should have been it. Contrary to popular belief, Trump voters did not overwhelm the Democrat cheating machine. Clinton underperformed Obama. Clinton received fewer votes than Obama did in 87 percent of U.S. counties. Yet the vaunted Dem vote fraud machine couldnt deliver small margins in PA, MI and WI?
If youre really worried about voter fraud, do something about it. Vote, drag like-minded friends and family to vote, volunteer for campaigns, and work as an election official or poll watcher.
Right after the election I made my POTUS election predictions, and I have Trump taking 351 electoral votes (with OR and NM as toss-ups). Yes, its optimistic. Biden could conceivably win. Hes got tons of money, an adoring media, and a lot of very favorable polls. But then again, so did Hillary, and Biden has more weaknesses. As of right now I see no reason to change my predictions. Do yourselves a favor and read some of Speedys threads on vote by mail, or Ravis on voter registration. The statistics are encouraging. Although the stat do not mean Trump is guaranteed to win, people around here should be fired up and helping with the final sprint, not wringing their hands. Many Americans are sick of the lefts violence, the riots, assaults on law enforcement (by mostly peaceful protesters and politicians/DAs), the economic destruction, the mask Nazis, etc. Hopefully that translates into a strong GOP vote on 11/3.
House of Representatives:
The GOP needs a gain of 17 seats to win back the Speakership. There are 30 Democrats sitting in districts Trump won (9 by a margin of 3 points or fewer, 13 by a margin of 3-7 points, and 8 by a margin of more than 7 points). Meanwhile only three Republicans sit in districts Clinton won (by 2-4 points). A solid Trump performance will drag many of these seats back into the R column. It would be nice to see more articles on these races, along with candidate websites.
Senate:
We have a current 53-47 GOP lead, which is virtually a tie with back-stabbing Romney, Murkowski and Collins. Coach Tommy Tuberville is in good position to take back the AL seat, and if the Trump/RNC team perform well in MI then John James has a pretty good shot at stealing Gary Peters seat. If Trump does well in MN, I could see Jayson Lewis pulling an upset over Sen. Tina Smith. A dark horse could be well known weatherman Mark Ronchetti in NM, taking over for retiring Tom Udall. But Mark is being seriously outspent. Maybe a recovered Trump will make a left turn at Albuquerque on his way to/from AZ, NV or CO. Speaking of CO, Sen. Cory Gardner may be hurting in the polls, but remember
so was Ron Johnson, by a much larger margin. And I think GOP turnout in AZ drags Sen. Martha McSally across the finish line.
One more thing:
Even folks trapped in CA, IL or NY can help Trump win the popular vote and drive a rhetorical dagger through the hearts of liberals. And help down-ballot conservatives get elected to office at the same time. After witnessing a sham impeachment, the Kavanaugh hit job, Wuhan Virus lock downs, and nationwide riots, theres no excuse not to be doing something for the next month to defeat Democrats everywhere, even in my Podunk town.
If Pres. Trump does lose and/or the GOP loses the Senate, most around here will undoubtedly be blaming the GOPe, the deep state, RINOs, the media, the Bushies (especially one clown who can barely go two posts without mentioning Bush League Republicans), basically blaming everyone except the person staring back at them from the mirror.
Think Im exaggerating or being unfair? In 2014 Ed Gillespie trailed in the sacred polls to Mark Warner in a VA Senate race. FReepers fell all over themselves saying how there was no way Ed could win VA was turning blue Warner was too strong blah, blah, blah. Warner led every single poll, with his largest margin 29 points! Ed Gillespie lost by 0.8 points. Had FR simply rallied around a Republican, posted links to his campaign website, donated time and money, and/or just posted well wishes and talked up his chances, we would not have endured the Kavanaugh crap in 2018. We would have had one fewer Dem and one more Pubbie, neutering Jeff Flake, Murkowski, etc.
But Coop, Eds a Bushie!!! Whoop dee doo. Im confident Ed Gillespie would have been a huge improvement over Mark Warner. But thanks to all the negativity and knee-capping well never know. So if you cant be bothered to get off your duffs and help elect conservatives and DESTROY the rioting, violent, hate-filled Democrats at the ballot box, maybe you could find it in your hearts to at least be positive and supportive of those trying to make America a better place?!? Even if you dont know how to post a link, copy and paste the path to a campaign website.
Ping
Coop, you can’t tell it, but you’re getting a standing ovation from me. Bravo!
Hi! Long time no see.
Excellent post.
You left out: Impact of the China Virus on Democrat turnout.
Excellent, fact filled post.
I have slight ADD but what I read I liked a lot :)
Good job, friend. Hoping youre right!
Well done.
+7
Great job Coop. As always.
Long time indeed.
Now theres a name I havent seen in awhilemaybe since that support-the-troops rally we did in Chapel Hill, NC many years ago! Thanks for the fact-filled post! Go, Trump!
Obama unemployment rate Oct 2012..7.9%
Trump unemployment rate Oct 2020..7.9%
“Coop, you cant tell it, but youre getting a standing ovation from me. Bravo!”
ECHO, i’m really a lurking nobody here, but WHAT HE SAID !!
SUCH A WELL WRITTEN POST, learned from it, read it twice.
Gave some money to some candidates, not even in Florida. Would love to see Kim Klacik do well. VOTE
Excellent job, thanks...The variable that keeps me from a prediction either way is now Harris...She looms larger since the country got a good look at Joe the other night. I’m hoping the very likely scenario that she might quickly inherit the presidency, if Joe is elected, will boost GOP turnout. Tomorrow’s debate is something to watch very closely.
For the first time in decades, I’ve been left speechless. You, sir, are a rock star. Not only is my hat off to you; it’s probably in the next county by now, as hard as I threw it. BRAVO !
The Virginia Dems organized for 2018 and flipped three House seats including Dave Brat. We don't really have a Republican party just some R candidates. The VIrginia Dems are just as organized this time. Many Dem districts had absentee ballot applications mailed to them by dark money groups. The dems got rid of voter ID for in-person voting.
On the flip side in my rural area there are more Trump displays than ever. About the same amount of Biden signs, mainly in the small towns. There's plenty of Trump enthusiasm out here.
Great piece of work my FRiend.
Good to see you post after all these years, hope you’ll stick around.
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