Posted on 09/01/2020 8:24:28 AM PDT by Red Badger
A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted.
Why this matters: Way more Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans, due to fears of the coronavirus, and it will take days if not weeks to tally these. This means Trump, thanks to Republicans doing almost all of their voting in person, could hold big electoral college and popular vote leads on election night.
* Imagine America, with its polarization and misinformation, if the vote tally swings wildly toward Joe Biden and Trump loses days later as the mail ballots are counted.
* That is what this group, Hawkfish, which is funded by Michael Bloomberg and also does work for the Democratic National Committee and pro-Biden Super PACs, is warning is a very real, if not foreordained, outcome.
What they're saying: Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn calls the scenario a "red mirage."
"We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump," he said. "When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage," Mendelsohn said. "It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted."
By the numbers: Under one of the group's modeling scenarios, Trump could hold a projected lead of 408-130 electoral votes on election night, if only 15% of the vote by mail (VBM) ballots had been counted.
Once 75% of mail ballots were counted, perhaps four days later, the lead could flip to Biden's favor. This particular modeling scenario portrays Biden as ultimately winning a massive victory, 334-204. The methodology, described in detail below, was based in part on polling from FiveThirtyEight in August. The ultimate results may well sit somewhere between these low-end and high-end scenarios and will also be impacted by who actually votes, and how voters' views about their options change over the coming weeks.
The other side: “The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in response.
Between the lines: Hawkfish is not just trying to educate the public about the possibility that Trump could prematurely declare victory, or try to delegitimize a Biden victory if it took days or weeks to determine.
The group is also trying to sensitize state and county elections officials, news and social media organizations, and the courts to the perils of premature results — and to the possibility of Trump and his team applying challenges and political pressure to reject a high share of mailed-in ballots counted after election day. And the group is warning voters that rejection rates for mail ballots are higher than in-person voting. To avoid having their votes thrown out, Hawkfish is advising voters to be extra careful about voting early enough and following all the instructions to the letter — or, potentially, putting on masks and gloves and going early either to safely vote in person or return the mail ballot in person.
Methodology: Hawkfish surveyed 17,263 registered voters in 50 states and DC, July 1-Aug. 16, 2020, to assess who people planned to vote for and whether they intend to vote by mail or in person at a polling place.
Responses were filtered for those described as definitely voting or likely to vote and weighted for state and national registered voter demographics. The scenarios assumed votes at polls would be counted on election day itself (Nov. 3). A scenario taking a week to count mail ballots would translate to approximately 15% per day on average. In another scenario, mail ballot counts took four days at 25% per day. For states that have had high vote-by-mail participation rates, Hawkfish assumed they would take two days.
Democrats announcing they are going to cheat.
Democrat lack imagination.
They plan to steal the election by ‘finding’ boxes ballots until they win.
Any mail-in ballots received after the polls close should go straight into a shredder, then into an incinerator.
The USSC needs to put a stop to this sh*t NOW!
“...even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted. “
~~~
See!
I warned FR about this weeks ago!
All of this media BS, including all the post office crap, is meant to get judges to extend the counting of ballots welllllll after the polls close. They are going to blame anything and everything they can, and bring lawsuits, so that they can keep those harvested ballots rolling in.
The premise of this article is ridiculous.
THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO LEGITIMATE REASON DEMOCRAT BALLOTS SHOULD BE COMING IN LATER THAN REPUBLICAN BALLOTS!
Soros has been installing local officials in office for years to be able to steal the election this way. I imagine the judges are in place to give them the the rulings they need.
When they do this, the lid on the powder key is going to blow sky high in this country. There will be no up side for the people to remain calm and non-violent. Because of this, we will have civil war before Christmas.
Bamn is//was an organization, too
key = keg
Exactly what they plan for Georgia. Very openly. An Obama judge pretty much decreed that it will happen, state law notwithstanding. Because of “Covid,” of course.
President Trump: People you’ve never heard of. People who are in the dark shadows.
The Trump team and the RNC need to get on this NOW to prevent the Axios postulated scenario from occurring.
BS, they figure only RATS will be voting by mail. Trump must have an army of lawyers to keep an eye for fraudulent votes, not to mention most of the mail in questionable votes will be coming from RAT states, that are in the RAT column.
So, they aren't even hiding it - they plan to steal the election via the counting of the mail-in ballots.
Disagree - not "hot", but dark. It guarantees doxxing of targets with clandestine operations. Other than some idiots who want to go face to face with the commie/anarchists, there will be no battle lines drawn. There will be no major field battles. It will be guerilla warfare.
I sincerely don't want to see the above happen. Like in all warfare, innocents will be killed. I don't want that. However, as long as I'm capable (questionable at 70), I will do what I can to maintain the greatest Nation this rock has ever seen.
Not mail in votes counted, what you saw in Cali 2018 was ballot harvesting. Illegal in most states but not in Cali.
this is why we can’t let it be close...as in every victory must be a full 1% to 2% at a minimum - not with rounding. A fraction of a percent can be overturned through fraud - and in this scenario, they can see precisely how many votes they need to manufacture after getting the election night tallies.
California allows mail-in votes to be counted up to 17 days after the election. What’s funny is that most states implementing full-on mail-in balloting are already blue or trending that way.
I don’t have to imagine - I just think back to Bush-Gore in 2000.
Wars have been fought over much less.........................
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