Posted on 08/26/2020 6:21:38 PM PDT by 11th_VA
PRESIDENT Trump could beat Joe Biden in another 2016-style upset, according to a recent analysis by Axios...
The new analysis gives Trump a number of distinct advantages. For starters, his voter base is ferociously loyal, and many Trump supporters will cast a Republican vote no matter what.
Political consultant Frank Luntz recently tweeted polling data from August 25 comparing the leanings of swing states regarding Democratic candidate Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton.
Pennsylvania - 2016: Clinton +9.2; 2020: Biden +5.7
Michigan - 2016: Clinton +9.0; 2020: Biden +6.7
Wisconsin - 2016: Clinton +11.5; 2020: Biden +6.5
Florida - 2016: Clinton +2.9; 2020: Biden +4.8
A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll put the number of swing voters at 13%, which is more than enough undecided ballots to sway the election.
One phenomenon that has been heavily known to skew voting is social desirability bias, wherein people respond to polls about their opinions by downplaying their views that are less popular and emphasizing opinions that make them look better.
With the extreme relevance of race relations in the 2020 election, social desirability bias could significantly, and incorrectly, skew data in favor of Biden.
(Excerpt) Read more at thesun.co.uk ...
You can always count on the Democrats to do the wrong thing. They should stop listening toSoros for awhile.
We’ll know the Democrats are worried when they “Weekend at Biden’s” their candidate out of his basement and roll the dice with him appearing in battleground states.
If they lose the three-piece set, they've got serious problems because some people will do hard time.
Remember Kalifornia 2018 irregularities. Give the Left an inch....
I like the way you think.
;)
If democrats and their media manage to weasel Joe Biden into the White House America as a constitutional free nation is doomed.
Joe is only the Trojan Horse figurehead for the powerful forces aligned to finish Obama’s “fundamental change”.
2016 was only an ‘upset’ to the polling organizations that oversampled the lefturds, and were scammed by a large number of the DJT supporters.
Looks like they didn’t learn their lesson...
Upset?? I think he’s going to absolutely crush Biden.
Because it’s the same lying pollsters with the same lying polls as four years ago.
yep also watch them in these senate and congressional races. they steal those all the time when it’s close anyway, now they have mail in ballots as their trickery.
I still enjoy watching them from last time, especially the Young Turds.
This may be an upset to the media, but we’ve seen him winning
handily for a few years now.
There’s nobody on the other side with enough charisma to keep
a guy on ten cups of coffee awake.
There is no “upset”. President Trump has been on top in this race the entire time.
President Trump has been, and will continue to be, the best president in our lifetime.
Trump has saved this country and he will do so much more in his second term.
God heard our prayers and sent him to help us.
I thank God Almighty for our beloved president.
..’72 was my first election. This one feels similar only more intense...
Donald Trump was the underdog in 2016, yet he CRUSHED Hillary Clinton in the electoral college.
Now, while many Democrats may believe that Biden will beat Trump in November, Professor Helmut Norpoth suggests that that is a false sense of security.
Professor Norpoth correctly predicted the 2016 presidential election, even as the polls appeared to suggest that Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton.
Norpoth, a political science professor who went viral for his TED Talk "How to Predict Elections," gives President Trump a 91% chance of being reelected.
NINETY-ONE-PERCENT!
We love those odds!
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump will receive 362 electoral votes.
Only 270 is needed to win the White House.
We will find out the real numbers around June 30,2021 when democrats stop counting and recounting and recounting mail in votes and hanging chads, assuming that they have the tally they want by then.
The lying, worthless bastards.
That is newspeak for the Brownshirt Effect. How about the desirability bias of not wanting their vehicles and house burnt to the ground?
Why are they calling it an “upset” ? It’s upset only if people believe fraudulent polls.
I frequently go over to DU to get a sense of proggie thinking.
The number of posts is off and the tone is depressed and almost desperate.
There is a BIG ad to donate TO PDJT’s campaign.
DU must need the money.
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