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Africa's pandemic puzzle: why so few cases and deaths?
Science ^ | August 11, 2020 | Linda Nordling

Posted on 08/14/2020 3:47:13 PM PDT by absalom01

Although Africa reported its millionth official COVID-19 case last week, it seems to have weathered the pandemic relatively well so far, with fewer than one confirmed case for every thousand people and just 23,000 deaths. Yet several antibody surveys suggest far more Africans have been infected with the coronavirus—a discrepancy that is puzzling scientists around the continent. “We do not have an answer,” says immunologist Sophie Uyoga of the Kenya Medical Research Institute–Wellcome Trust Research Programme.

After testing more than 3000 blood donors, Uyoga and colleagues estimated in a preprint last month that one in 20 Kenyans aged 15 to 64—or 1.6 million people—has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an indication of past infection. That would put Kenya on a par with Spain in mid-May, when that country had 27,000 official COVID-19 deaths. Kenya's official toll stood at 100 when the study ended. And Kenya's hospitals are not reporting huge numbers of people with COVID-19 symptoms.

Other antibody studies have yielded similarly surprising findings. From a survey of 500 asymptomatic health care workers in Blantyre, Malawi, immunologist Kondwani Jambo of the Malawi–Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme and colleagues concluded that up to 12.3% of them had been exposed to the coronavirus. Based on those findings and mortality ratios for COVID-19 elsewhere, they estimated that reported number of deaths in Blantyre at the time, 17, was eight times lower than expected.

(Excerpt) Read more at science.sciencemag.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: africa; ccpvirus; chicombioweapon; covid19; hcq; hydroxychloroquine
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They are utterly at sea as to what could possibly be causing such a low mortality in Africa.

There are plenty of reasons that mortality should be higher there: non-existent or bad medical care, iffy nutrition, grinding poverty, HIV rates, endemic malaria.

Oh, right malaria. What's that stuff that people take to ward off malaria? Hydroxy something?

1 posted on 08/14/2020 3:47:13 PM PDT by absalom01
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To: absalom01

It could be that they’re not testing many people in third world dumps, and the Beer Flu is in the noise compared to things like Malaria.


2 posted on 08/14/2020 3:53:01 PM PDT by Mr. Rabbit
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: absalom01

My guess is that almost all of Africa is ruled by failed corrupt regimes that exploit their people, keep them uneducated and living in abject poverty, corrupt or destroy any civil system including healthcare, and will tell whatever lie to the west to gobble up any money they possibly can from charities and foreign governments to continue the vicious cycle.


4 posted on 08/14/2020 3:54:51 PM PDT by Intar
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To: absalom01

I think it’s a potent combo of Hydroxy Something, herd immunity, lack of screaming media, and lack of a political party that thinks it has to keep fear going strong at least until an election.


5 posted on 08/14/2020 3:55:44 PM PDT by JennysCool
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To: absalom01
They are utterly at sea

I'm not sure what at sea has to do with their loss of words and explanations. Once they get back on land, it won't be much better.

6 posted on 08/14/2020 3:57:20 PM PDT by BipolarBob (The cost of abortion is a human sacrifice.)
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To: Mr. Rabbit

Well, the study they’re writing about claims to control for that.

The circumstantial evidence piling up that HCQ is at minimum a potent prophylaxis is getting harder to ignore.


7 posted on 08/14/2020 3:59:18 PM PDT by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
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To: absalom01

And, maybe Africa is actually reporting deaths of real Covit19 cases and not saying that people that died of say, cancer, head on car crashes, drownings, getting trampled by Hippos, lion maulings, etc., and not calling all those dying of the virus instead!! Truth sometimes hurt. Here, massive numbers help keep the country shut down, claiming more deaths, etc. to use against Trump. Africa doesn’t have a Trump to trash and blame. Commies here in what is left of the Republic have Trump, Christians, conservatives, gun owners, military members, NRA, football fans, etc. to blame it all on.


8 posted on 08/14/2020 4:01:19 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (Friends, are you prepared to meet the LORD? Do you KNOW Him? Time is running out.)
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To: absalom01

It would be very interesting to see what percentage of the population takes that medication. Especially broken down by age. Older people are much more susceptible to c o v i d. Much more susceptible to anything so perhaps they are on this medication more for malaria than the younger folks.


9 posted on 08/14/2020 4:05:31 PM PDT by dp0622 (I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE COVID GODFATHER I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO. YOU CAN ACT LIKE A MAN!)
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To: absalom01

India is a mystery too


10 posted on 08/14/2020 4:06:10 PM PDT by griswold3 (Democratic Socialism is Slavery by Mob Rule)
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To: RetiredArmy

Well, that could be a factor, but even so, the IFR is 1/100th of the best estimates in Europe and the US.

That’s a huge gap, which might be explained away by multiple factors, but could also be evidence of something real. And if it’s real, it’s a huge effect.

I still think that HCQ is a part of the explanation for the super-low IFR observed so far in Africa.


11 posted on 08/14/2020 4:06:17 PM PDT by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
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To: absalom01

It protects against pregnancy?

I’m here all week folks try the veal it’s great :-)


12 posted on 08/14/2020 4:06:28 PM PDT by dp0622 (I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE COVID GODFATHER I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO. YOU CAN ACT LIKE A MAN!)
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To: absalom01

excellent...hydroxy and lots of sunshine!


13 posted on 08/14/2020 4:07:49 PM PDT by himno hero (had'nff)
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To: absalom01

The life expectancy is much lower. Younger population and many of the weaker have been weeded out.


14 posted on 08/14/2020 4:12:10 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (Life is anecdotal)
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To: absalom01

A friend who is in Africa is sending me some HCQ. It is sold over the counter in country she is in.


15 posted on 08/14/2020 4:17:53 PM PDT by free_life (If you ask Jesus to forgive you and to save you, He will. As)
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To: absalom01
Yep; it's possible HCQ could explain the low mortality statistics. After all, it's so cheap even Africans could afford it.
I'm going to offer an alternative explanation based on something else you said:

There are plenty of reasons that mortality should be higher there: non-existent or bad medical care...

There you have it. My theory is that medical care, not medical error but standard, approved medical care accounts for most of the deaths credited to Covid. My wife was given up for dead at a major hospital but, not wanting to have her tortured in her last hours on earth, the family refused to permit intubation. Annoyed that we wouldn't allow her to be placed in a ventilator, the hospital bundled her up without stabilizing her and shipped her back to hospice care where she completely recovered and is still alive months later.

16 posted on 08/14/2020 4:20:51 PM PDT by stormhill
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To: absalom01

Yes. Countries in the malaria belt have broad use of HCQ and minimal death rates due to china flu. No mystery at all, and these liars know it full well.


17 posted on 08/14/2020 4:22:13 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard (Power is More often surrendered than seized.p.)
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To: himno hero

and no msm or den governors to pump up them numbers


18 posted on 08/14/2020 4:22:18 PM PDT by Pollard (whatever)
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To: malach

I believe you are correct. I would think that lack of testing and generally poor statistical reporting are cofactors.


19 posted on 08/14/2020 4:22:46 PM PDT by dinodino
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To: absalom01

Average age is 17 in Africa. Average in the US is 37 or so—and older in Europe.


20 posted on 08/14/2020 4:23:17 PM PDT by olivia3boys
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