Skip to comments.Tuesday Primary Thread: 6 things to watch
Posted on 06/23/2020 12:53:06 AM PDT by RandFan
The successor to prison-bound former Rep. Chris Collins and the challenger to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be decided Tuesday along with nominees for dozens of House seats as six states hold elections.
But it may take several days for votes to be counted as states cope with an expected surge in mail-in ballots because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Elections in Kentucky, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina and Virginia had already been delayed, while South Carolinas runoffs for state-level offices were always planned for Tuesday.
In New York, Kentucky and North Carolina, which is hosting a GOP runoff for White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows former seat, absentee ballots can be postmarked on election day.
In North Carolina, those ballots must be received by June 26 to be counted, while that deadline is June 27 in Kentucky and June 30 in New York. Some counties in Kentucky have already said they will not release results until June 30.
In Virginia, which has a handful of competitive House races, absentee ballots must be received by 5 p.m. on primary day, but Republican nominees in some House districts are being chosen at party conventions.
Here are six things to watch in Tuesdays primaries:
1. Booker looks for an upset
In the Democratic primary to take on McConnell in Kentucky, a late outpouring of support for state Rep. Charles Booker, a Black progressive Democrat, has made for a race that Marine veteran and former House candidate Amy McGrath never expected.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is backing McGrath, who had a campaign war chest of $19 million earlier this month. But progressive leaders, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, as well as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are lining up behind Booker.
If Booker prevails, he will deserve credit for an effective appeal to the primary electorate as the country, and the commonwealth, focus on incidents of police killing African Americans, including in Louisville. Bookers campaign used McGraths answer to a question during their only debate about why she was not out with demonstrators protesting police shootings in TV ads in the closing weeks.
2. Insurgents take on incumbents
Ten of the 12 House Democrats running for reelection in New York City are facing primary challengers, several of whom are well funded.
Rep. Eliot L. Engels primary has heated up in recent weeks, with liberal groups and leaders backing his challenger, former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, who says the House Foreign Affairs chairman has lost touch with the 16th District.
The New York Times endorsed Bowman and Adem Bunkeddeko, a community organizer who is challenging Rep. Yvette D. Clarke in the 9th District for the second straight cycle.
House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler and Oversight and Reform Chairwoman Carolyn B. Maloney are also facing primary challengers. (Maloneys 2018 opponent, Suraj Patel, is running again.) But some Democratic operatives said Engel and Clarkes primaries are expected to be more closely contested.
In Kentucky, it had appeared earlier this spring that an outsider had a chance to knock out Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie in the 4th District Republican primary.
Lawyer Todd McMurtry briefly began to gain GOP establishment support after Massie forced members back to Capitol Hill in March for a vote on a bipartisan COVID-19 relief package. Massies actions led to rebuke on Twitter from President Donald Trump.
Massie has long been unpopular with his more hawkish colleagues, and House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., even donated to McMurtry. But when McMurtrys history of racist tweets surfaced, Cheney and others asked for their money back.
The primary between the two men has remained bitter, but a recent Club for Growth PAC poll showed Massie ahead by 66 points.
3. Outside help
Democratic outside groups have been active in Tuesdays elections, particularly in deep-blue districts where the Democratic primary winners are likely to come to Congress.
In New Yorks 17th District, where Democrat Nita M. Lowey is retiring, outside groups, including the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, have spent more than $518,000 to support lawyer Mondaire Jones, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Women VOTE!, the political arm of EMILYs List, has spent nearly $195,000 to bolster Evelyn Farkas, a former deputy assistant Defense secretary, and $80,000 against lawyer Adam Schleifler, who is self-funding his campaign.
The race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. José E. Serrano in New Yorks 15th District has also attracted outside spending, in part because of a concern that New York City Council Member Rubén Díaz Sr. could win the Democratic primary with a plurality. Díaz has a history of making homophobic remarks and controversial comments.
Outside groups, including the political arm of the Congressional LGBTQ Equality Caucus, have spent a combined $625,000 against Díaz. Equality PAC, along with BOLD PAC, the Hispanic Caucus political arm, and other groups have spent a combined $463,000 to boost New York City Council Member Ritchie Torres, the first openly gay elected official in the Bronx.
Two other candidates, former New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito and state Assemblyman Michael Blake, have benefited from outside spending. Latino Victory Fund has spent $25,000 supporting Mark-Viverito, while The Collective Super PAC, which supports Black candidates, has spent $87,000 backing Blake.
Outside groups have also played in New Yorks 1st District, where Democrats are targeting three-term Republican Lee Zeldin. One outside group launched in early June called Blue Tide NY-1 has spent $169,000 supporting Perry Gershon, a former commercial real estate lender who lost to Zeldin in 2018. 314 Action, which supports candidates with STEM backgrounds, has spent $517,000 to bolster chemistry professor Nancy Goroff.
The group has also been involved in a Democratic primary in Virginias 5th District, where Democrats hope to capitalize on internal strife among area Republicans after libertarian-leaning Rep. Denver Riggleman lost the GOP nomination to Christian conservative Bob Good at a convention last week.
The four Democrats on the ballot are moderates with attention-grabbing résumés, so outside spending could help set the winner apart. 314 Action has spent $307,000 to support doctor and health policy professor Cameron Webb. Women Vote! has spent almost $498,000 on Marine veteran Claire Russo. Vote Vets and VoteVets Action Fund has spent a combined $117,000 on RD Huffstetler, who is also a retired Marine.
In the GOP runoff in North Carolinas 11th District, businesswoman Lynda Bennett received a boost from the House Freedom Fund in her bid to succeed Meadows. The fund, the political arm of the hard-line conservative Freedom Caucus that Meadows once led, and the tea party-aligned House Freedom Action have spent more than $1 million to help Bennett win the GOP nomination. The group Fix Congress Now! spent $160,000 against her.
Protect Freedom PAC spent $530,000 on behalf of her 24-year-old opponent, Madison Cawthorn, airing an ad saying Bennett was a Never Trumper in 2016. House Freedom Action spent $309,000 on ads opposing Cawthorn.
4. GOP women face primary test
Republican women looking to increase their ranks in the House are also facing primaries Tuesday.
Former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney is expected to win the nomination in New Yorks 22nd District, where shes looking for a rematch against freshman Democrat Anthony Brindisi. And in New Yorks 11th, GOP leaders have coalesced around state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis to take on Democratic Rep. Max Rose.
Trump has endorsed both women, but the National Rifle Association recently backed former prosecutor Joe Caldarera over Malliotakis, according to the New York Post.
North Carolinas 11th District has never voted to send a woman to Washington, but that could change if Bennett wins the runoff against Cawthorn. Bennett was the top vote-getter in a 12-candidate primary on March 3, but fell short of the 30 percent needed to secure the nomination outright.
5. Potential rematches
Tenney isnt the only candidate looking for a rematch. In New Yorks 24th District, 2018 Democratic nominee Dana Balter is hoping to take on GOP Rep. John Katko, a top Democratic target. But first she has to defeat Navy veteran Francis Conole in the Democratic primary.
Balter could benefit from higher name recognition from her 2018 run, and she also has a financial advantage with $1.3 million on hand compared to Conoles $176,000 as of June 3. VoteVets has spent more than $218,000 boosting Conole.
And in Virginias 2nd District, former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor is seeking a rematch against Democrat Elaine Luria, who unseated him by 2 points in 2018 after Taylors campaign was caught up in a signature forgery scandal. But first he has to face fellow Republicans Ben Loyola and Jarome Ball on Tuesday.
6. Voters pick Collins replacement
Voters in New Yorks 27th District face a special election Tuesday to replace Collins, whose pandemic-delayed 26-month prison sentence for insider trading is due to start in August. The seat is expected to stay in Republican hands, since Trump carried it by 25 points in 2016. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Solid Republican.
Local party leaders picked state Sen. Chris Jacobs as the GOP nominee for the special election. Jacobs is personally wealthy and loaned his campaign $446,000. He faces Democrat Nate McMurray, a former town supervisor who nearly defeated Collins in 2018.
Both McMurray and Jacobs are also on Tuesdays primary ballot for the full term. Jacobs has some competition with former Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw and lawyer Beth Parlato also running in the GOP primary.
Jacobs opponents recently called on him to drop out of the race after the Erie County district attorney received a complaint alleging he committed voter fraud. The allegations include registering to vote in the district before he actually owned a home there and falsely stating his home in the district was his primary residence, according to Buffalo CBS affiliate WIVB.
Jacobs called the complaint a desperate political stunt. On Friday evening, Erie County DA John Flynn said he would not pursue criminal charges after looking into the complaint, The Buffalo News reported.
Mods: can you keep this on the front page for later ?
As New York State & New York City is dying economy wise...caused by the total failure of Democrats, Governor, Andrew Cuomo & the also failed NYC Mayor, Bill DeBlasio, New York Democrat voters have a once in a lifetime opportunity to kick out AOC, Nadler, Engel, etc. and many more useless losers.
However, IMHO, these stupid Democrat, people will simply hang themselves and then stand by and watch the once great New York go down the drain!!!
The restaurants opened yesterday offering limited service outside. But. I ask where are the tourists, where are the Broadway plays and where is Radio city Music Hall. The restaurants in Midtown Manhattan are empty, so are the hotels, so is Little Italy & Chinatown. The NYC Subway System is now home to the homeless...so, you can guess which way ridership will go!!!
I could on because Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island are headed the same way, and rumors are afoot the the financial companies and the NY Stock Market Exchange could move soon to Palm Beach, Florida. Shucks...why not,.... 60,000 highly paid taxpayers have left New York for life in Florida, Texas the Southern states. Read my lips, NY folks...there is such thing as a free lunch. Wise up or die and go down with failing, destroyed, New York State and NYC..period!!! Your Choice...folks!!! What you all should do is throw Cuomo & De Blasio into the garbage bin of low life, failures and get a bunch smart, successful and wise folks to run the state & city like a business!!!
Eyes on the prize, folks. We need to see Trump re-elected, the Senate held and Queen Pelosi dethroned, however the math works out.
Don’t think AOC will have a problem which is why they didn’t write about it. I’ll keep an eye on it just in case. Thanks!
Mail in ballots do we need to know any more
“AOC has a perfect combination of tv-ready looks”
You mean from the neck down?
New York Democrat Primary election voters...if you have any street smarts at all...you will not cast your votes today for Democrat, Joe Biden, vote for another Democrat or, just write-in POTUS, Donald J. Trump...period!!! It’s about time you all woke up to realize New York, both the State and the City are dying economically. Democrats are poison for a healthy New York...period!!!
[ MuttTheHoople (What if the Lord sent COVID-19 to immunize the world from something more deadly?) ]
Funny you should mention that. I’ve been wondering if the sanitation, masks, may protect some of us from something more serious. Or something more serious on the way.
But then, I’m always /shiny side out, so...
Still, it’s obviously being exploited by Globalists.
Indeed, we live in interesting times.
The races are already decided by the Democrat establishment. It doesn’t matter who the people of NY pick. They will have enough mail in ballots to put who they want back into office, even if they have to exceed the number of registered voters in each county. Don’t be expecting any upsets in NY>
MuttTheHoople (What if the Lord sent COVID-19 to immunize the world from something more deadly?)
OMG! I was thinking that too! Back in Feb 2020.
They made their bed, they can sleep in it. I have NO sympathy for them.
I heard a rumor that Engel’s isnt the only primary in New York to watch. I’m hopeful Rep. Nadler goes down but can’t see it...
This could be an interesting day...
New York voters, both upstate and in NYC are not the sharpest knives in the draw or, the brightest bulbs in the room, IMHO. New York as a state and New York as a is no more. The Democrat Party has destroyed the greatest city in the world. Broadway, Radio City Music Hall, the mid town rstaurants, the tourists, Little Italy, Chinatown are dying...thnkas to Cuomo & De Blasio. Crime is shooting up like a rocket heade for way out space. You take your life in your hands every day you ride on the NYC subway!!! I could go on for days and days...but simply put, all Democrat Party voters coupled with the moron, buffoon fools Cuomo & De Blasio are living in La, La land..period!!!
The smart New Yorkers have already abandoned the city and state and they and their wealth and tax base are headed for
Texas, Florida or one of the southern States!!! “You can lead a horse to water, but....you cannot make them drink”!!!
You are 100% correct...they voted for these failures...now, let them live with and for exactly what the voted for. LMAO!!! I could care less!!!
In most of KY, polls closed at 6pm EDT.
Sounds like there will not be (m)any results tonight, a week or more, I h88888888888888888 that.
November could be a nightmare with no winner or House Speaker till Thanksgiving.
Deadline for non-hardship absentee ballots should be a week BEFORE the election. Better yet, get rid of them.
You can lead a horticulture, but you can’t make her think.
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