Posted on 02/24/2020 9:47:42 PM PST by datura
France is preparing 70 hospitals. Officially they only have 12 cases. (11 of which have already recovered.)
The hysteria about Covid 19 has far, far greater potential to damage our country economically...than the number of deaths that may occur from it this year.
Several confounding variables, in no particular order.
1) Genetics, # of ACE2 receptors.
2) Smoking. Half the world’s smokers are in China
3) Cumulative damage to lungs from air pollution in China
4) General hygiene
5) Viral load —> see hygiene and also social distancing. It’s possible the body can fight of a small number of virus particles, but get too many at once, your body can’t get them all.
6) Medical care: I read China has 1 doctor (or, had, some have died), for every 22,000 people. In the US it’s 1 doctor for 1,500.
7) Medical care: degree of training and facilities for patients
8) Medical care part 2: Wuhan got overwhelmed, that couldn’t have helped.
9) Medical care part 3: political pressures, many in Wuhan just got sent home from the hospital and infected others in their homes
10) disease progression: this coronavirus is said to resemble dengue fever, in which re-infection can occur once the body has cleared the virus. The 2nd infection is unusually nasty, and can result in damage to multiple organ systems or sudden death from cardiac arrest
11) disease progression 2: supposedly, some of the coronaviruses have the disquieting trait, that a vaccination for one, makes subsequent infection with another coronavirus much worse. Supposedly China mass-vaccinated some of its people for SARS (which was another coronavirus)
12) disease progression 3: the virus can incubate for up to 27 days. Since we really don’t know when patient 0 in China first got infected, we don’t know how long it takes for asymptomatic people to start dying: that is, there may be a hidden population of sick in Iran and Italy, if not other places, and they’ll suddenly start showing up in ICUs and morgues. So the low count right now out of China is not a *certain* indicator.
13) Just maybe, it was a bioweapon. If (as rumors based on a true story go), China stole it from Canada, or North Carolina, maybe it was a disease aimed at Chinese people (see ACE2 inhibitors again), and China got careless or their world-famous (*cough*) quality control let it loose, even if they were only looking for a vaccine for it.
14) I have read articles that say the virus is one amino acid substitution away from becoing much MORE tightly bonded to the ACE2 inhibitor. Oh goody. Because coronaviruses are RNA viruses, and don’t have the high-quality mistranscription-checkers that DNA-based things do...so they mutate more quickly.
thanks for the post. first solid info i’ve seen.
ARCHIVES OF QUARANTINES, “SELF IMPOSED” QUARANTINES AND PEOPLE BEING “MONITORED” GOING ON IN THE U.S.
>The city of Costa Mesa is seeking to block the transfer of up to 70 confirmed coronavirus patients from near Sacramento to the former Fairview Development Center cbsloc.al/2vXY2K0 pic.twitter.com/uSG767VhpH
http://archive.is/1CrWE
>KC health officials monitoring nearly 10 people for coronavirus
http://archive.is/GMmfN
>13 Americans moved to Omaha facility from evacuation flights, US officials say
http://archive.is/koqiL#selection-1132.0-1132.1
>26 people quarantined in Westchester County as a coronavirus precaution
http://archive.is/gXIck#selection-3149.0-3149.71
>BREAKING: Close to 200 Georgia residents are being monitored for coronavirus
http://archive.is/czVQP#selection-1397.0-1397.76
>With cruise ship evacuees, Lackland coronavirus quarantine grows to 234
http://archive.is/5uq4H#selection-1063.0-1063.71
>325 Michiganders monitored for coronavirus as nation preps for ‘likely’ spread
http://archive.is/wip/P63N4
>More than 700 people in Washington under public health supervision for coronavirus
http://archive.is/7Xph3#selection-1639.26-1639.117
>More than 5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health.
http://archive.is/cH7h7#selection-2143.0-2143.149
>Nearly 7,000 travelers in CA asked to monitor, isolate themselves: Federal officials suggested to more than 6,700 travelers who have returned to California after Feb. 2 from China, outside of Hubei Province, to “monitor their health, stay home and limit interactions with others as much as possible,” California Department of Public Health officials said.
http://archive.is/h99iC#selection-3201.0-3203.289
Heck, for perspective, the 1918 flu pandemic was a decade before Penicillin was "discovered" (ironically, related to the study to influenza).
Of course, an antibiotic has zero direct affect on a pathogen such as a virus...but the point is, our medicine, our science, our pharmaceuticals, our system in general is like Star Trek compared to what it was back in 1918. General living conditions in this country alone are night and day compared to then.
This isn't the middle ages....or even 1918, and Corvid 19 isn't the 1918 "Spanish" flu outbreak either.
It's an awful recipe.
The overwhelming vast majority of the infections...and deaths, occur in 3rd world health care systems. So far, in the 3-4+ months since the virus "broke out", there have been 18 in 1st world health care countries. 18 in all of them. Still, more deaths will occur. We will even see our 1st death in this country...most likely, soon.
Perhaps...just perhaps, one of the "lesson's learned" from this latest outbreak will be that more in our country (beyond Trump & a few others) will realize that China isn't a super power on our level. And, it isn't a country that we should rely on so extensively, especially for our pharmaceutical/medical industry to say the least.
Stay vigilant out there, as always. Our world moves fast. And to tie it in politically..."A republic, if you can keep it."
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3818132/posts
Regarding steroids, vitamin c and thiamine in sepsis cases.
There exists also information on adding n-acetyl cysteine (an amino acid, a building block of protein) as a glutathione precourser to assist in lung function, but I have not looked it up for quite some time.
White House asking Congress for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3819244/posts
Steroids, like those used by people with asthma, tend to lower immunity. It appears that having a strong immunity response and avoiding large viral loads are important for success at fighting off the disease. Steroids would probably be overwhelmed by it and not likely to sufficiently control ARDS. Sorry, but I’m between new computer installs and didn’t keep a link.
This provides some clear information on treatment, though.
How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment
https://youtu.be/okg7uq_HrhQ?t=329
That’s almost 10% mortality in a first world nation. Or one squad in a battalion on a five day exercise.
9 is about 1% of 893. Not 10%.
Yes, and that's why it needs to be taken extremely seriously, not blown off as another flu. CDC has already seriously screwed up by botching the first batch of test kits. So far, only 414 people have been tested in the US, and the plan to test people with flu symptoms, but test negatively for the flu has been delayed over a week. CDC is only testing people who have returned from China, or if you have had contact with someone who has tested positive. This means the US is blind to community transmission. We could be fine, or we could be f----d and we won't know for a week or two. In comparison, Korea has tested over 28,000 people.
Look at how China is responding, they are destroying their own economy, risking destabilizing the government. If they could ignore it and sweep it under the rug they would. It is bad, you have to trust your eyes, and look at the way China reacts, and not the numbers coming out.
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This would explain much.
Sounds like typical flu. Mean age of 59.7 in the study. Why were younger people excluded.
40 percent had a chronic illness and 13 percent acquired a hospital infection.
Sounds like a typical flu season.
Everyone has been posting how carts of 30 somethings are dropping dead. Not seeing that here. Why not?
Meanwhile, thy lord n savior pharmaceutical co and governments are counting on your fear to make you bow the knee.
If you are the model freeper? You sound like a very rude jerk.
I’ve seen an article here showing a big variance in mortality rate by ethnic/racial group, as well as sex and smoking status. Han Chinese male smokers were near if not at the top for risk from Coronavirus, with European white females near the bottom. The ethnic groups had something to do with varying numbers of receptor sites for the virus in cellular make up.
52 out of the 796
That happens to older patients and those with compromised immune systems during flu season
Everyone is acting like this is the Black Plague. It is not
Wash your hands. Cover your coughs. Practice good hygiene
SARS CoV-2 is the name of the virus.
COVID-19 is the disease it causes.
Great post.
We will try to provide ICU care for all and that will collapse what has become an incredibly fragile system.
Alternative isolation facilities should be being put up right now, but we have to keep the “Just a cold” people on board for now.
When we need them, if we do, we won’t have time.
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