Study released today: Coronavirus 4.8% Mortality Rate

Medrxiv.org ^ | Medrxiv.org

[BusterDog]

4.8% fatality rate.

Analysis of 50,404 patients

“According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

[billyboy15]

No claim I have seen limits the virus to Asians. What is said is Asians are more susceptible.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Everywhere else it’s 1% or less, Iran has 12 for 60. That can raise the average.

Check it out yourself ifnypu can read.

[trebb]

Outside China, the mortality rate is under 1% - what do you gain by posting scare-bait tripe?

[palmer]

China's massive population has about 20M deaths per day (7MM per year)

China has 7.3 deaths per 1000 or 10.5 million per year. Like most temperate countries, winter deaths are at least 10% higher than summer, probably more for China. That gives us about 30k deaths per day in winter months. Your numbers are off, but that doesn't matter since your contention is that they would not quarantine a major industrial city over a few hundred deaths.

I forget the exact numbers, but back then a major Chinese site posted numbers that were way different from the official ones for a very short time, and seemed much more like the real numbers based on China's locking down cities and other reactions to the virus

Speculation based on "leaked" data with no provenance is pointless. They quarantined 60 million people with more than the normal 1300 deaths per winter day because there was an unknown virus filling up hospitals. The fringe news stories talked about 100's of cremations per day in Wuhan. That's normal.

[palmer]

Giving us a possible fatality rate of 93%. Even if we don't halve the recoveries, we're still at 87% mortality.

Drivel. You are using a completely speculative death rate based on an anonymous internet source, and ignoring all the recovery cases that were not hospitalized.

[palmer]

So that means this study looked at an additional 20M patients who are currently infected and haven't died nor recovered,

The study didn't look at any cases. It was a meta-study based on other studies. Without those other studies it is completely speculative and probably junk. Anyone can preprint an article online, it means nothing.

[palmer]

Outside China, the mortality rate is under 1% - what do you gain by posting scare-bait tripe?

Just feeding the circle jerk of fear mongers. The numbers in the threat are either unsourced or from a study which someone prepublished which means it has no scientific validity.

[grey_whiskers]

You really can't either read or do 4th grade math can you?

If we have two countries, one with 100,000 cases and 10 deaths, (0.01% fatality) and a second country, with 20 cases and 12 deaths (60%), that does not mean the overall average fatality is almost 50%.

[Abathar]

Ever been there? In the summer? the air quality around their cities is some of the worst in the world.
You don’t have to be a smoker to have compromised lung problems, just being a kid raised there has compromised your lungs compared to, say, your typical Kansas resident.

[EBH]

I think it might be safe to presume there will be some Lefty that will ‘sacrafice themselves’ to the greater good of making Trump look like he can’t handle this situation.

And that my FRiend would be a very treasonous and terrorist act.

[null and void]

Can’t brain just yet will revisit after coffee time permitting

[null and void]

My numbers started in the 50s and dropped to about 9% recently.

Better treatment, better genetics?

Or just ChiCom lies?

[calenel]

Smoking was A factor.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

I just said skewed and nothing about 50%

Do your own homework there is no 4% anywhere any time.

Currently

80,289 confirmed
2,704 deaths
27,840 recovered

[Styria]

How about gross exaggeration and presumption of the number of deaths in China in spite of the numbers China itself gave all along?

If you’re looking for an inherent vulnerability, though, the bad air pollution in Chinese cities probably set them up to get sicker when infected.

[null and void]

Why would the Chinese exaggerate the number of deaths at all, let alone grossly exaggerate them?

[null and void]

Currently

80,289 confirmed
2,704 deaths
27,840 recovered

If you robotically use the textbook formula for calculating mortality in historical epidemics where everyone has run the full course of the disease process and apply it to a current epidemic and assume everyone merely sick will survive:

100*2704/80289 = 3.3678337% mortality.

[trebb]

Yep - and way too much of that happening and masking actual data.

[Svartalfiar]

Your numbers are off, but that doesn't matter since your contention is that they would not quarantine a major industrial city over a few hundred deaths.

Eh, Chinese stats on anything are hard to find a trustworthy source, as most of it is based on fake Chinese numbers anyway. And I'll admit my death number is probably somewhat old. But yes, a few hundred deaths is nothing over there.


Speculation based on "leaked" data with no provenance is pointless. They quarantined 60 million people with more than the normal 1300 deaths per winter day because there was an unknown virus filling up hospitals. The fringe news stories talked about 100's of cremations per day in Wuhan. That's normal.

Then you tell me a better method for calculating the real numbers that China is hiding, and probably doesn't even know. There was no official spike of deaths at that point - 4-500 deaths spread over a month or two when the quarantines started. Sure, a bunch of sick people filling up the hospitals isn't good, but it's not something China, of all places, would shut down a major industrial city, cancel Lunar New Year (one of the biggest holidays in China), and shut down the capitol city, for.

The 'fringe' news stories I've seen say thousands of cremations a day, not just a hundred. They also show lots of other situations (docs dying, alkohol sprays of the entire city, people welded inside and left to die, several extra hospitals built in a couple days, etc) all of which do not correlate to something that's only killed a couple thousand people. As other people like to say, the flu kills over 100M people in China every year, so why would a bare couple hundred deaths cause such a panic?

[Svartalfiar]

The study didn't look at any cases. It was a meta-study based on other studies. Without those other studies it is completely speculative and probably junk. Anyone can preprint an article online, it means nothing.

Yes, that's what I mentioned in some of my other posts. But the fact remains that they still somehow have 20M more recoveries in those numbers than John Hopkin's has total cases. So it's not a worthwhile study just based on that.