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Posted on 02/12/2020 3:50:03 PM PST by janetjanet998
It looks like Hubei province changed their reporting status to match other provinces. If so, then other provinces when they report shouldn’t have any dramatic increases. We’ll see.
The reported cases now include “clinical diagnosis”. That sounds like cases without a test or the test says negative, but doctors think its COVID-19 based on symptoms.
I read a recent article that the COVID-19 tests in China are of poor quality. CT exams of lungs for a patient would show the virus but the test would come back negative.
13,332 cases out of 14,840 were added because of clinical diagnosis. That means about 1500 cases based on positive test results. It appears the 13,332 wasn’t for just 1 day, but range over several days. How many days is unclear. We can probably assume 1-2 weeks. That means this is a huge 1 day jump. The numbers tomorrow will go back down substantially.
Yep..
Lou Dobbs on Fox Business News program reported same numbers as BNO/Agenda Free News.
I think they are still under reporting...they reported decreasing numbers for a couple days, but I think no one was buying it...
An interviewee in China said he was going back to work because...
“There may be a 2% fatality rate for the virus, but there’s a 100% fatality rate for starvation!”
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
That one.
The ‘chart’ of each days cases/etc is on the lower right for me. Mouse over each ‘dot’ to get that day’s numbers. You can turn off each data set by clicking on the big dot next to its name underneath the chart.
.
How many days is unclear. We can probably assume 1-2 weeks.
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
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26m
On Tuesday, Hubei province reported the lowest number of new cases in quite a while, but using the new criteria, they actually had 6,528 new cases on Tuesday, not 1,638
If the Coronavirus is this contagious, how is it that other
nations are able to keep their infected numbers so low?
On the 6th of February, the number of infected people
outside of China was reported as 310. Today, if you
discount the Cruise Ship count of 175, that means that
the number has only grown to 398 in six days. That's
hardly the stuff of exponential growth.
On January 20th, there were approximately 282 cases
globally. With six days there were 2757.
Notice the difference in growth rates?
How is the rest of the world doing it? Or is it doing it?
So far it seems so, but you sure have to wonder.
This data dump today will cause folks to question everything.
Are any of the reports real?
TV-9 Taluga - Suspected cases of Covid-19 rises to 163 in Telangana
(south-central India)
The other day I mentioned how a cornered animal will lash out.
We need to send a strong message to the Chinese.
Thank you.
Agenda Free News is reporting the changes are in document posted here by CNBC correspondent on Twitter, Eunice Yoon:
https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1227752679520137217
it could be 100,000 by the end of this week.
doubling every 3 or 4 days.
by the end of the month it could be 800,000
“they had 5000 of those cases yesterday”
At that rate that would cover just 2-3 days in the past.
That is scary and worse than I would have expected.
On the optimistic side, some of the “clinical diagnosis” patients will end up testing positive via a test kit and won’t be counted twice in the numbers.
and so the politics begin: Canada, BRIC thanked. Canada to not restrict travel??? I’m assuming the US is covered under the ‘overreaction’ part. (imo, in the middle of this, China is trying to position itself as the leader of Asian nations while publicly shunning the USA - wargaming)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKuWweWBpho
The R0 is very high.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1
We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus
Roses are red.
Violets are blue.
Be sure to sneeze.
On our dear friend Pooh.
(stolen from ZH)
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