Skip to comments.Coronavirus Live Thread 2/12 to 2/13 (yikes)
Posted on 02/12/2020 3:50:03 PM PST by janetjanet998
14,800 new cases and 242 new deaths
they changed the way they classified cases
2 weeks ago it was only 500 cases.
Revised diagnosis designation.
Was like 4hundred something when I first loaded the gisdata page.
What are criteria for diagnosis?
When he updates it should be about 60,000 cases. At this rate, it could be 100,000 by end of the month.
Abstract The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020.
Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity.
We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period.
Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.
We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
Im not so sure Lookner is interpreting the numbers correctly. The additional 14K might be over the last several weeks, not in 24hrs.
I’ll bet $5 that if the true numbers were known, there’d be 250,000+ dead and 5-10 million infected. But we’ll never know as the crematoria are working overtime.
US military approves 11 coronavirus quarantine camps next to major US airports which can treat ‘up to 1,000 people’ as the 13th American case is confirmed in California
The Department of Defense approved 11 ‘installation sites’ near major airports around the US
They will be used if and when hospitals are unable to accommodate passengers in their own quarantine sites
The airports are located in Hawaii, Illinois, Texas , California , Georgia, New York, Washington state, Washington DC, New Jersey and Michigan
Americans returning from the coronavirus outbreak epicenter in Wuhan, China, are required to spend 14 days under quarantine
Those returning from China who did not visit Wuhan are subject to 14 days of self-isolation in their homes
Foreign nationals who have traveled to China in the last 14 days are not allowed into the US
Excerpted...more at link including photos and maps
R0 of 5 or 6.
Where’s the gif of the dog in the burning house?
Sounds like they’ve reached the phase where they have to start ramping up their numbers towards reality, if they want to get some international help.
Expect at least a week of this, if not more.
Notice how few questions about this disease are being asked or answered 1) How many Western non Chinese who live and work in Wusan have become ill or died from this coronavirus? 2) Why aren’t the Chinese allowing Western viral experts , epidemiologists and organizations such as the CDC to come to China and study and learn? BTW if you have tickets or reservations for the summer Olympics in Japan, might be a good idea to change your plans.
60,016 cases worldwide
Not seeing the criteria, they are now counting “clinical diagnoses”.
My guess is they are running out of test kits and now have to rely on dr’s saying the person has the virus based on known symptoms.
I think lack of test kits was resulting in lower “growth” numbers over the last few days. There was also rumor that they weren’t counting people that tested positive without symptoms.
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