Posted on 12/16/2019 8:44:54 AM PST by Hojczyk
“Not surprisingly, all African Americans do not hate Trump!” pollster Jonathan Zogby said in sharing his data with us.
But Trump critics don’t buy it. Democratic and Barack Obama pollster Cornell Belcher is one. He rejected the reasoning that black support is growing and suggested that the polls are wrong.
“Those reasons would assume that it’s real, which it isn’t. To have a conversation about the reason is giving it credibility,” he said.
“I’m not going to bad mouth anyone’s polling here, but particularly with small subsamples, you get blips. When you look across the data and even look back to see what the trend is, it’s pretty apparent that numbers like that are outliers,” added Belcher, the founder of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies.
To answer those concerns, Zogby “oversampled” black voters in his latest survey and found that the support was 27%, but he also measured support in head-to-head matchups with 2020 Democratic candidates to put that support to an election test.
In all cases, while black support for Trump dropped when an alternative was offered, it was higher than the 8% he received in 2016 and maybe enough to push him across the finish line first in 2020.
Against Joe Biden, Trump receives 12% of the black vote. Against Sen. Bernie Sanders, it was 14%. And against Sen. Elizabeth Warren, it was 17%.
While he had a 5% margin of error, Zogby said the trend is clear. “If Trump is able to up his numbers over 10% or near 15%, and with a lower turnout among African Americans because they are not excited by the field of candidates or turned off by D.C., Trump could really benefit from this scenario in the 2020 general election,” he told us.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
The other secret... legal immigrants hate illegals..and Trump will get more than 2016
Could?! You mean there’s barely a slight chance he may win in 2020? :-)
Obama only takes orders from black women. It is black men who are rejecting the Democrat agenda in greater numbers.
Patriots need to support PDJT with a new patriot Congress that will fully support his already excellent work for MAGA, now KAG.
Real men of all races must stand together against Marxist feminism.
I don’t get any news from cable or tv, only YouTube commentators. It was by happenstance that almost all my favorite commentaries are from black Trump supporters.
Shhh! Don't talk about it, don't talk about it!
Trump will do well for those Black Americans who are motivated to turn out. Many will simply stay home.
If you were a life-long Democrat, and your choices were Slow Joe, the Fake Indian, The Marxist Geriatric, or Gay Pete, would you be motivated to vote?
I know of not one conservative that does not want an economy that benefits all.
I know of not one liberal that does not want an economy that benefits only them - despite what they claim.
With this increase in minority (Black and Hispanic) support, and a roaring economy and even from impeachment backlash, Trump should be up for a landslide victory in 2020.
So my question is, what will the media do with their presidential polling this summer? The media never gives the Republican candidate credit for being ahead prior to election day (think Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Trump).
So, say Trump is up 55/45 against anybody … what will the media do? Will they not poll to not give Trump credit, or will they oversample democrats in their polls to an unbelievable level (like 45% dem/30% rep). Because I know they will never want to publish a poll with Trump leading.
Many are sensitive to having phony changes thrown on innocent people, so there’s that.
I expect some sort of effort to curb voter fraud in big cities like Philadelphia and Chicago.
With more support from the community, and less fraud in the cities, things could be very different next time.
The other key vote will be the Roman Catholic vote.
Historically it has gone to the democrat candidate more than the gop-e candidate.
IIRC only four times since 1952 has the Roman Catholic vote gone to the gop-e candidate.
IF those two demographics support Trump the race is over.
When ever you get blips in most or all the polls in the same direction, are they really blips?
bookmark
Seems like a very easy sale -- "I'm a white guy, I'm a billionaire, I'm the president -- and they came after me and they almost railroaded me! If they can do that to me, they can do it to anyone! Do you have friends and family that have been unfairly targeted? Help me clean up the system! Help me drain the swamp! The Democrats are the swamp!"
If Mooch enters the race all those blacks will vote for her and she will get 99.9% of the black vote. Tribe is more solid than politics.
“But Trump critics don’t buy it. Democratic and Barack Obama pollster Cornell Belcher is one. He rejected the reasoning that black support is growing and suggested that the polls are wrong.”
Blacks will never vote for Republicans in large percentages, but I can see more and more going independent. A growing number of Blacks can see the Democrats are bending over backwards to appeal to illegal aliens while ignoring them, and taking their vote for granted.
Right, I don’t know if Trump will actually get an uptick from the black vote. It seems like we hear this every time and it never actually happens. If it does it will be the men. Black women with few exceptions are just a lost cause, irredeemable.
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