Posted on 12/16/2019 8:44:54 AM PST by Hojczyk
I keep thinking that too, but in the end I bet the Obamas will wait for 2024.
I tend to agree with Belcher... Most of the polling I have seen that folks are claiming larger black support are in a very very small sampling set of a larger poll.. and when you apply the proper margin of error to those sets, Trump is in standard GOP support range among blacks.
That does not mean Trump will not do better among blacks this time than last time, but until someone does a large scale poll of black voters, that shows support above standard GOP levels, with a high confidence and low margin of error. I don’t buy then you are going to see a huge swing in black support say 15-20% for Trump.
Believe me, I would love to see it, but I don’t see anything on the ground to support this.... If the GOP pulls 15-20% of the black vote, no Democrat will ever win the White House again, and everyone knows it. So, Trump is polling honestly at 20% among black voters with high confidence, you would see the Democrats and the MSM would be far more aggressive than they already are trying to sell Trump as a racist.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on noticeably or significantly increased black vote for Trump, so I am taking a wait-and-see attitude, but I am definitely curious to see. It is a voting block that has been predictably monolithic for a long time.
A couple of things to note, and some possible wildcards.
First is if Buttgeig wins their nomination. I have read repeatedly that black (hetero) males consider it a non-starter.
Second is the idea that seems a bit reaching to me, but that Trump is the first non-black president since Obama and he has proven not to be this some great white threat, as was advertised by the media.
Personally, I don’t buy into the hype that a lot of minorities should assign their gratitude about the great economy (increased jobs and pay) to Trump. Whether or not Trump is responsible for it doesn’t matter. I can practically guarantee you that they don’t look at it that way. People who got better jobs or increased in the last few years didn’t look at their pay stub and say “thanks Don”. They just think thinks may be looking up a little bit and that’s it.
The day of liberation is here for our fellow Americans.
More of our fellow citizens are freeing their minds to enslavement.
Somewhere is Kayne West saying, “More of you should join us.”
Before this didn’t add up but now, I’m believing this is a turning point.
“Will they not poll to not give Trump credit, or will they oversample democrats in their polls to an unbelievable level...”
That’s what they did in 2016 up until the election was close then they start fixing their oversampling error magically to get their “work” in line somewhat to reality.
This is a standard game for public pollsters, many of whom are DNC polls for all intents and purposes.
By far the most one-sided voting group in the 2016 election:
Latino males: 32% for Trump
Latino females: 25%
LGBT: 14%
Black males: 13%
Black females: 4%
Blacks more than likely will stay home.... I would love to say I see things on the ground supporting a massive move to Trump among them, but I honestly don’t see anything to support this.
I do believe without question, Trump will likely overperform his 2016 numbers among blacks, but its not going to be 15 or 20%... I do believe with the loser field of candidates the Ds are putting forward you will likely see lower overall black turnout in 2020.
Blacks are where the Blue Dog Dems were pre Trump... many are not happy overall with the party, but they won’t just vote GOP... they will stay home or disengage. If the Dems stay on the course they are on, then one day, someone will give them a reason to switch... for now though, collectively I don’t see any indication that is happening on the ground....
I suspect lower overall black turnout and better performance by Trump among black voters than in 2016, but I don’t see anything near 15 or 20%. I would say he will likely wind up more toward the higher end of typical GOP support by the group... but nothing that noteworthy.
I identify with black, these days one can say anything or check any box, or choose any bathroom. I was in a church with about 3,000 people about 75% of them had negroid genetic makeup. They were very accepting of white folks. We felt a genuine warmeth. I had tears in my eyes the whole time, as I see a HUGE shift among African American people. They are NOT buying this abortion on demand, and gender confusion. They are sick of being addicted to drugs, and they are coming out of their prisons, I am very optimistic that even though Michelle Obama enters the race, if she is a Democrat, they won’t support even HER. This church instead of taking up an offering, gave away about 1.5 million dollars. They gave away 3 cars, bought a house for a white homeles couple, paid several medical bills... It wasn’t your usual black church wihth a REVVVVVVEREND Jackson, or AL Sharp, they were slaves who had been set free, and weren’t blaming anybody. God always liked to help get slaves out of slavery, and into a promised land.
I think the unthinkable could happen... For all the left’s models of immigrants and victim groups becoming the majority and thus obsoleting the Republican Party, they’ve taken for granted they can hang on to every group they think they own.
If African Americans come back home to the Republican Party its a game changer.
Denial is such an ugly thing! LOL!
Gubmint is their baby daddy...
Anecdotally, I’ve seen more widespread and more intense black frustration with Democrats and the failures of Democrat policies, but that doesn’t translate into increased support for Trump or Republicans.
To paraphrase the comments of one black acquaintance recently: “Why do we keep supporting Democrats? They’ve kept us in poverty for 50 years, by taxing and regulating our businesses, keeping us on welfare, destroying our families, keeping us in failing schools and denying us school choice.” Whether he realizes it or not (and I have a hard time believing he does not realize it), he has basically given, word-for-word, the conservative position of how Democrat policies hurt blacks. But when someone suggests he vote Republican, the response is: “Screw that. Republicans are a bunch of racists.”
He’s hardly alone among black male voters. I’ve never seen the opportunity, and the challenge, of Republicans or conservatives winning black votes set forth so clearly.
Minorities have the most to lose if Trump is not reelected.
In any real world, having a paying job beats NOT having one.
I remember after the real estate crash in 78-82....when I finally got a paying job, I thought I was in Heaven!
I was out of work for almost 4 years.
On the plus side, I got out of construction and into high tech.
I pretty much agree with your summation. I think 12-15% of the Black vote would be the high end that Trump will receive next year. Anything higher than that, and certainly anything over 20%, would be a sign of a political upheaval in Black America, but I don’t see that happening. What I do believe is that in the future a number of Blacks will register as independents, and the RATS share of the overall Black vote will start dropping below ninety percent. Even a small decrease in Black support would be harmful to them because they’re losing more of the White vote with every election, and more Hispanics stop voting exclusively Democrat as they become more assimilated into the American culture.
Eyes on the prize folks. The thing that really matters is if we can steal a few blue state senate seats. Otherwise this is all wishful thinking.
Shhh! Don't talk about it, don't talk about it!
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Ignoring a problem and hoping it goes away is a strategy, not a winning strategy, but it is a strategy.
Mr. Trump will never get a majority of the black vote, but he does not need it. He just needs a slice of people either grateful for a good economy, tired of getting screwed by Dem policies, happy someone is sticking it to the establishment or a combination of all three.
15% puts additional states in play, 20% makes it his election to lose.
Instead of KAG, how about KAGA?
Keep America Great Always
Rather obvious. Single black women in large number and lesser numbers others are married to the government as most could not or chose not to make a marriage vow with a willing partner.
Just their choice. And the public is forced to pick up the wreckage as is also the case in many a divorce.
What a public disaster.
Wow, if you’ve followed my discussions about this on Twit, I have regularly said that you cut the % “approval” in half and that’s Trump’s vote share, but you have to add another 3-5% who will not vote at all.
I have consistently said Trump would be in the 12-15% range, with 3-5% more staying home.
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