Blacks more than likely will stay home.... I would love to say I see things on the ground supporting a massive move to Trump among them, but I honestly don’t see anything to support this.
I do believe without question, Trump will likely overperform his 2016 numbers among blacks, but its not going to be 15 or 20%... I do believe with the loser field of candidates the Ds are putting forward you will likely see lower overall black turnout in 2020.
Blacks are where the Blue Dog Dems were pre Trump... many are not happy overall with the party, but they won’t just vote GOP... they will stay home or disengage. If the Dems stay on the course they are on, then one day, someone will give them a reason to switch... for now though, collectively I don’t see any indication that is happening on the ground....
I suspect lower overall black turnout and better performance by Trump among black voters than in 2016, but I don’t see anything near 15 or 20%. I would say he will likely wind up more toward the higher end of typical GOP support by the group... but nothing that noteworthy.
I pretty much agree with your summation. I think 12-15% of the Black vote would be the high end that Trump will receive next year. Anything higher than that, and certainly anything over 20%, would be a sign of a political upheaval in Black America, but I don’t see that happening. What I do believe is that in the future a number of Blacks will register as independents, and the RATS share of the overall Black vote will start dropping below ninety percent. Even a small decrease in Black support would be harmful to them because they’re losing more of the White vote with every election, and more Hispanics stop voting exclusively Democrat as they become more assimilated into the American culture.