I wouldn’t bet the farm on noticeably or significantly increased black vote for Trump, so I am taking a wait-and-see attitude, but I am definitely curious to see. It is a voting block that has been predictably monolithic for a long time.
A couple of things to note, and some possible wildcards.
First is if Buttgeig wins their nomination. I have read repeatedly that black (hetero) males consider it a non-starter.
Second is the idea that seems a bit reaching to me, but that Trump is the first non-black president since Obama and he has proven not to be this some great white threat, as was advertised by the media.
Personally, I don’t buy into the hype that a lot of minorities should assign their gratitude about the great economy (increased jobs and pay) to Trump. Whether or not Trump is responsible for it doesn’t matter. I can practically guarantee you that they don’t look at it that way. People who got better jobs or increased in the last few years didn’t look at their pay stub and say “thanks Don”. They just think thinks may be looking up a little bit and that’s it.
Anecdotally, I’ve seen more widespread and more intense black frustration with Democrats and the failures of Democrat policies, but that doesn’t translate into increased support for Trump or Republicans.
To paraphrase the comments of one black acquaintance recently: “Why do we keep supporting Democrats? They’ve kept us in poverty for 50 years, by taxing and regulating our businesses, keeping us on welfare, destroying our families, keeping us in failing schools and denying us school choice.” Whether he realizes it or not (and I have a hard time believing he does not realize it), he has basically given, word-for-word, the conservative position of how Democrat policies hurt blacks. But when someone suggests he vote Republican, the response is: “Screw that. Republicans are a bunch of racists.”
He’s hardly alone among black male voters. I’ve never seen the opportunity, and the challenge, of Republicans or conservatives winning black votes set forth so clearly.