“But Trump critics don’t buy it. Democratic and Barack Obama pollster Cornell Belcher is one. He rejected the reasoning that black support is growing and suggested that the polls are wrong.”
Blacks will never vote for Republicans in large percentages, but I can see more and more going independent. A growing number of Blacks can see the Democrats are bending over backwards to appeal to illegal aliens while ignoring them, and taking their vote for granted.
Blacks more than likely will stay home.... I would love to say I see things on the ground supporting a massive move to Trump among them, but I honestly don’t see anything to support this.
I do believe without question, Trump will likely overperform his 2016 numbers among blacks, but its not going to be 15 or 20%... I do believe with the loser field of candidates the Ds are putting forward you will likely see lower overall black turnout in 2020.
Blacks are where the Blue Dog Dems were pre Trump... many are not happy overall with the party, but they won’t just vote GOP... they will stay home or disengage. If the Dems stay on the course they are on, then one day, someone will give them a reason to switch... for now though, collectively I don’t see any indication that is happening on the ground....
I suspect lower overall black turnout and better performance by Trump among black voters than in 2016, but I don’t see anything near 15 or 20%. I would say he will likely wind up more toward the higher end of typical GOP support by the group... but nothing that noteworthy.