Posted on 07/04/2019 8:40:33 PM PDT by nwrep
Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.
Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.
With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump. His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot take it for granted.
Republicans are already walking a tightrope between the 2018 midterm results and changing demographic realities. In many ways, the resources used to keep Texas red next year are balanced by the fates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Several campaign stops or a late ad buy could mean the difference in the race. Trump could see his electoral chances go to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in Texas
You forget: the ones dying are the dyed-in-the-wool FDR democrats.
I got news for you, Texas was Blue. Remember Connelly, Mark White, Ma Richards? It’s enevitable that it will one day flip, especially when you have a party like the republicans that run on platforms of what they will do, and then do nothing. The state gets a taste of their crap, and eventually flips back. Republicans lose minority votes because they don’t bother to go after them.Lost a loyal black voter block for 80 years and not even bothering with hispanics.
I like the way you think regarding needed changes!
What you said... is 100% correct.
Some of those early “head to head” polls I’ve seen asking Biden vs Trump or Bernie vs Trump (including a few that way oversampled D voters) showed that Trump was pulling 33% among Hispanics and 12% among African Americans.
Dems need to hold the line there and almost no further. Personally, I think both demographic groups can be won over on the merits and shouldn’t take for granted that DEMs can hold their past numbers among these groups into the future.
BS
Party affiliation is not genetic. There is no reason for Dems to expect to hold African American and Hispanic majorities forever. There is good reason to challenge them for these votes in 2020.
I’d wager that even among these demographic groups, a majority favor border security for example. And I suspect they are the least likely groups to be snowflake-ish. The Dems are jumping the shark imo this year with all this “reparations” and “open borders/free healthcare” and “free college/loans paid off” nonsense. They are brazenly trying to buy votes with a promise of taxpayer money. Who knows it may work to get votes, but when none of these promises actually happens it can seriously backfire.
Look at Obamacare/ACA. The GOP did win big in 2010 in the effort to stop it, but they also lacked good messaging after it passed. Dems promised universal healthcare and lower costs what they gave us was mandatory insurance at higher costs. Health insurance is not health care. Now the Dems are back at it. The GOP should mock them endlessly for screwing it up - why would we ever want them to try again? Let alone by this silly plan to make all doctors employees of the federal government (medicare for all), and to take Medicare away from senior citizens and give it to rich yuppie families.
“Trump could see his electoral chances go to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in Texas”
With all the big money spent in Texas in 2008, Beto lost—to Cruz!
Maybe ten years from now Texas could go blue, but whatever demographic changes are underway are not quite ready from prime time.
Certainly not in 2020, because every last one of the Democrap candidates stink on ice, and they’re up against Donaldus Magnus, incumbent wall builder, tax cutter, oil driller, and fighter against tall odds. That sort of true grit plays well in Texas.
You're talking about a guy who won his Senate seat twice - and the first win was a major upset as he was outspend 2.5:1. In the GOP Primaries for POTUS nomineee he won more party delegate votes than all the other non-nominees combined. That last factoid says a lot about him (he raised almost as much as Jeb did, won more delegates, stayed in the race a lot longer (e.g. he budgeted his money better) but 40% of what he raised was from small donors while Jeb got 90%+ from large donors) but this post is not about all that.
Hey, I get what you are saying. He's not slick. He's kinda nerdy and wonkish at times. He's not all that handsome if I can say so. He's not the typical politician. Neither is Rand Paul (though Rand is more polished than his father was).
But there is something to that, too. He can embrace that side of himself and make that a part of his appeal - fight on his battlefield which is one of principles, goals, ideals and policy. And by doing so with confidence the voters will look past it too. Truman was a total dweeb and he defeated Dewey, after all. Dewey was NY Governor, successful prosecutor, a slick politician who cracked down on the mob three decades before the Kennedy's did. But Truman took no guff and was very decisive, modest, but also projected confidence. Not to compare Truman to Cruz per se - Truman was a hard drinking, smoking, poker playing deal-making, pay-to-play backstabbing SOB (his era's version of Clinton, but not as slick nor as ego-motivated).
But, Truman "gave 'em hell" and the people went with him for it. In a way Cruz does the same. He really just sticks to the issues, doesn't make it or take it personal, and the voters go with him. Trump is similar, though Cruz is a lot more grounded by guiding principles while Trump is a lot more opportunistic and calculating. Both have their pros and cons. I dunno if Cruz could win the office of POTUS but he's done well given the superficial shortcomings.
I prefer to think 2018 was a perfect storm to favor Democrats and they STILL couldn’t outvote the Republicans. There was clearly massive vote fraud in the inner cities and massive Leftist money poured into the state to elect Beto and oust Cruz yet they STILL couldn’t get the results they wanted.
In 2016, there were still a lot of Cruz fans and Bushbots who refused to vote for Trump. I think Trump has won over many of them and he’ll do better in 2020 than he did in 2016. This time, Cruz will be supporting Trump instead of gritting his teeth and cursing him. It will make a difference.
By 2032, she may be right and the libs will take over the state but not in 2020. I don’t see that happening.
Hard to tell if the Dims finally have enough illegal and manufactured votes to overturn the will of Texans.
Agree , but I don’t think Texas is at CA Demographics yet but is headed that way ,the increasing demographic or ethnic block voting for Dems- is a real story, and challenge for GOP. Without the block voting of African American’s (93% + for Dems+ and now especially Hispanic Americans-approaching 70%,) CA would still be the state that elected Reagan governor and nationally the Dems would have a little over 100 seats and about 10-12 Senate seats. At Least Hispanics don’t vote 90% dems-thats the opportunity for GOP
Just look at the states won by Trump,he won 32 states but only 4 have a population of Hispanic voters over 13%. Clinton by contrast won 28 states and only 5 had a Hispanic population of under 13%.
In CA, the Hispanic Population is now about 40% (and yes fueled by illegal immigrants and higher birth rate )and African American 12%.
This demographic shift and resulting voting trend is what is going on in early stages in Nevada, Az, Fl and yes now Texas. Colorado is now over 20% Hispanic and now a dem state, Nevada over 29% and now voting solidly blue. I believe this is why the dems are for illegal immigration-it gets them votes and power.
We need to address, I think Trump can and does, otherwise its like trying to win a basketball game where the other team gets to start with a 20 point lead so we cannot pretend we can win without Hispanics or fall for the “its just white liberals” myth or the entire country will be CA
More propaganda, which is better described as information warfare, from a leftist writer.
JoMa
I agree with your post. Illegal immigration is designed to force a democrat majority and thus totalitarianism in the US.
JoMa
It is not Texas, it is all the invading illegals and yankees. As Texans, we need to secure our northern border as well as our southern
I haven’t lived in Texas for a long time, but we’d all best stop being chickens and start showing our voting preferences in advance. Many people will vote for the perceived winner in an election. Besides, if enough of us wear something to show where we stand and resolve to help each other out, the lefties will stop harassing us.
\Hispanics have politically murdered California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. When (not if) they murder Texas, it will be lights out and adios America. We will all get to live in a national California.
In cities and towns across America they are filling car trunks with ballots
FUD
I don’t see that happening for Texas in 2020, but it will eventually go blue. Every trend is pointing in that direction.
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