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How Roy Moore Could Actually Win Alabama’s Republican Senate Primary
FiveThirtyEight ^ | Live Blog: Women’s World Cup Jun. 20, 2019 | Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 06/24/2019 10:19:09 AM PDT by Texan4Life

A large primary field may fragment the vote, making it unlikely that a candidate could win a majority and avoid a runoff and making it easier for Moore to advance to a runoff with only the support of his base.

The point is that Moore does have a path — especially a path to a primary runoff if there’s a crowded GOP field. And if he does get there, he would be only one step away from a rematch with Jones.

Moore would still have a decent chance of winning a general election in conservative Alabama, and that is surely a big part of why he’s running again.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama
KEYWORDS: alabama; marajadetroll; primary; republican; senate
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To: 1Old Pro

He’s tainted and he lost to Jones before.


41 posted on 06/24/2019 10:54:03 AM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: Seaplaner

it hurts other GOPers, just by potential association w party.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sounds just like Paul Ryan as to why he wouldn’t appear with Candidate Trump.


42 posted on 06/24/2019 10:57:26 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizen Means Born Here Of Citizen Parents_Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Reily
There was enough that didn’t show up the last to in effect keep him out of office! He had 14% registered voter advantage over his opponent! He couldn’t motivate his “advantage” to show up!

When the national party urges everyone to vote against him, when they pull his funding, making him appear guilty in everyone's eyes, when the entire media broadcasting propaganda monster and the entire Washington DC establishment is against you, it can cause an effect on the more wishy washy of your supporters.

And it did. 25,000 write in votes thanks to Richard Shelby, and the loss was by 25,000 votes.

Thanks again Richard Shelby.

43 posted on 06/24/2019 10:57:38 AM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: Lazamataz

He didn’t have one chance. That sad thing is, you think he did.

The RNC/GOPe smeared Moore and did robocalls to get Republicans to stay home or vote for the Democrat.

Despite this he came within about 1.5% of winning.

Name one Republican candidate in any state that could overcome that form of onslaught against them, being completely betrayed by all the leadership who should have been backing him.

Trump was Roy Moore. He had all the same enemies. We rallied behind him and some of us broke off and trashed Moore.

That was a massive mistake, and some folks are back on board to do it all over, opposing Moore instead of backing him.

We wouldn’t have Trump now if our side had acted the same way. Well, actually, we barely did get him with folks acting just the same way.

We need to fall in behind Moore and put the nail in the coffin of the RNC/GOPe.


44 posted on 06/24/2019 10:57:55 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (This space for rent...)
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To: DiogenesLamp

Yes New York “star culture” is similar. I can see it !

The Senate is too important gamble !
The USSC & fed judges are too important to gamble!


45 posted on 06/24/2019 10:57:56 AM PDT by Reily
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To: Texan4Life

46 posted on 06/24/2019 10:58:06 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation has ended!)
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To: rottndog
I wish people would stop making George Soros the bogyman for everything that goes wrong in the world. Yes, he's a first class evil financing @$$hole, but he is not under every bed and behind every bush as some people seem to think.

I've noticed a lot of the Eastern European government officials like to trot him out as the scapegoat too.

47 posted on 06/24/2019 10:59:44 AM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: DiogenesLamp

I agree with you. I think that Alabamians are not going to fall for the smear tactics of Karl Rove and the Demoncrats this time.


48 posted on 06/24/2019 11:01:14 AM PDT by Texan4Life
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To: Reily

He married a woman when she was 24 and he was 32 and is still married to her.


49 posted on 06/24/2019 11:01:41 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizen Means Born Here Of Citizen Parents_Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Reily
The Senate is too important gamble ! The USSC & fed judges are too important to gamble!

I agree, and I wish Moore would let someone else take it.

But I understand why he feels the need to rehabilitate his name, and I can't say I blame him, though I wish he wouldn't.

50 posted on 06/24/2019 11:01:52 AM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: Nifster

He ran. He lost. There are no do-overs.

Did the Democrats unjustly slime him? No doubt. Does anyone think that Democrats will play nicer in 2020? Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.

This is a seat that the Republicans can and should win back. They will not win it back if Moore is the nominee.


51 posted on 06/24/2019 11:03:52 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation has ended!)
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To: marajade
He’s tainted and he lost to Jones before.

More tainted than the actual molester Joe Biden, who last I checked was leading the polls to become the Dem nominee for President?

52 posted on 06/24/2019 11:04:10 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Texan4Life; DiogenesLamp

The women have sworn affidavits.

And Jones is the incumbent.

Doesn’t have a thing to do with “smear tactics.”


53 posted on 06/24/2019 11:05:54 AM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: DiogenesLamp

“and it is quite possible that if Roy Moore runs, he will win”

“Possible” for a Republican to win in Alabama. You could only say that if Roy Moore is the nominee.

Any other Republican is a SHOE IN. A certain win.

AL votes nearly 70% GOP in Presidential elections.


54 posted on 06/24/2019 11:06:27 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Texan4Life

Sorry...he’s a loser.


55 posted on 06/24/2019 11:06:29 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: 1Old Pro

Does Biden have women who have come forward and sworn affidavits?


56 posted on 06/24/2019 11:06:41 AM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: Mariner

He didn’t win as the Republican nominee last time.


57 posted on 06/24/2019 11:08:34 AM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: Lazamataz
Sessions....The DOJ job demonstrated Peter's Principle.

He was a great Senator for the state.

He'll be a fine candidate with his usual conservative values.

58 posted on 06/24/2019 11:09:13 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: marajade
Does Biden have women who have come forward and sworn affidavits?

Trump does, is he guilty too?

59 posted on 06/24/2019 11:09:31 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Bubba_Leroy
He ran. He lost. There are no do-overs.

Nixon, Ronald Reagan & George W. Bush all lost elections, only to win later on.

60 posted on 06/24/2019 11:11:15 AM PDT by JonPreston
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