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Democrats hold 7 point advantage ahead of midterms as Trump's base comes back home: NBC-WSJ poll
CNBC ^ | 11/03/2018 | John Harwood

Posted on 11/04/2018 10:58:21 AM PST by SeekAndFind

President Donald Trump's late campaign blitz targeting immigrants has rallied the Republican base of white working-class voters, helping to curb the Democratic advantage heading into Tuesday's midterm elections for Congress.

The election-eve NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading by seven percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. That's down from a nine-percentage point lead last month.

That slightly narrowing reflects rising interest in the election from the foundation of Trump's support: White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas. Most noteworthy for a mid-term election, the 2018 campaign has seized the attention of voters at presidential-campaign levels — and Trump has helped Republicans wipe out the advantage Democrats held earlier in the campaign.

"There has been some method to his madness," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducts the NBC/WSJ survey with his Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. "The base is coming home."

The results presage the possibility of a split verdict on Tuesday. With many battleground House races taking place in more affluent suburbs, the unusual Trump-era advantage Democrats continue to maintain among college-educated whites — especially women — represent a strong sign for their prospects of gaining or exceeding the 23-seat gain they need to recapture the majority.

But in the less-populated, more conservative states that will decide control of the Senate, the late campaign trend brightens Republican prospects. Needing a two-seat gain to recapture a majority, Democrats must defend incumbents in states such as Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota where the Trump base looms larger.

"Republicans have clearly made progress," McInturff said. One key indicator: the Democratic edge among independent voters has dipped to nine percentage points from 14 percent last month, reflecting fresh uncertainty among less-affluent white men.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2020election; anotherpoll; cnbc; cookedthebooks; democrats; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2018; election2020; fakenews; fakepolls; incometaxes; johnharwood; mediawingofthednc; midterms; nbcwsj; partisanmediashills; poll; presstitutes; romneyrinos; smearmachine; taxcutsandjobsact; taxreform; tcja; zogbyism
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To: SeekAndFind
There has been some method to his madness," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff

What madness? What the hell does that mean?

21 posted on 11/04/2018 11:10:55 AM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: SeekAndFind

Most Conservatives will not participate in any polls associated with left wing organizations. Many know that Rasmussen is a neutral organization and are willing to participate in their polls. I think that this helps explain the discrepancy. Rasmussen currently shows President Trump with a 51% approval rating.


22 posted on 11/04/2018 11:12:22 AM PST by fireman15
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To: SeekAndFind

So, all of the illegals in Calif. are going to vote ‘Rat?

At this point in the campaigns a nationwide poll is pretty meaningless.


23 posted on 11/04/2018 11:12:27 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

A national poll is silly at this point


24 posted on 11/04/2018 11:13:17 AM PST by wiseprince
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To: SeekAndFind

They need to get their crying towels ready.


25 posted on 11/04/2018 11:13:21 AM PST by Mysonsrdoctors
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To: BookmanTheJanitor

He speaks plain. People can understand Trump.

The media pretends not to hear it.


26 posted on 11/04/2018 11:13:31 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind
"White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas"

For those that haven't noticed, this is one of the media's main themes in these closing days. "White, old, poor, dumb, bumpkin".

It's also a psychological technique designed to peel off any last minute, undecided, voters who do not identify with these traits.

Get out and vote! Please!

The election night meltdowns will be delicious.

27 posted on 11/04/2018 11:13:59 AM PST by KitJ (Shall not be infringed...)
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To: SeekAndFind
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal Nov. 3-5, 2016, Generic Congressional poll had the Democrats at +3.

Turns out that the Republicans won 240 seats and the Democrats won just 192.

28 posted on 11/04/2018 11:14:37 AM PST by FreeReign
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To: KitJ

I am a white male voter from a small town. Note the patronizing contempt...

I have heard it all my life.


29 posted on 11/04/2018 11:15:36 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind

I know these polls are legitimate. After all, president Hillary Clinton said so during her last White House press conference.


30 posted on 11/04/2018 11:17:05 AM PST by Junk Silver ("It's a little hard to herd people onto trains when they're shooting at you." SirLurkedalot)
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To: FreeReign

Democrats are supposedly up 7+.

Then why has the early vote been heavily R+?


31 posted on 11/04/2018 11:17:30 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind
"Trump's support: White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas."



Snuffy rules!

32 posted on 11/04/2018 11:18:19 AM PST by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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The daze of creating the bandwagon everyone is supposed to hop on as part of some self-fulfilling prophecy psych is long gone. There is this thing called the internet where information is now in the wild and cannot be controlled by the heavily partisan MSM outlets (fake news).


33 posted on 11/04/2018 11:18:32 AM PST by USCG SimTech
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To: SeekAndFind
That slightly narrowing reflects

What? . . .

Readership and ad rates must be down. They had to fire the copy editor.

34 posted on 11/04/2018 11:18:49 AM PST by SamuraiScot (am)
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To: Junk Silver

This time America will really reject Trump! Sounds like a liberal wet fantasy.


35 posted on 11/04/2018 11:19:04 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind
White men, especially older, less educated, less affluent ones in small towns and rural areas


36 posted on 11/04/2018 11:20:19 AM PST by Jeff Chandler (Every time a lefty cries "racism", a Trump voter gets his wings.)
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To: FreeReign

You are finding Nate Silver, who predicted 86% chance of Dems taking the House, now saying “80 percent, but it could go either way”. These “pundits” have to protect their reputations and in some cases, their newsletter subscription sales. Even as biased as this poll is, it appears to point us to the following in the Senate: R Gains of North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, Florida and Montana; possibles in Ohio and Michigan. One endangered R seat in Nevada for a net gain of six or seven Senate seats.


37 posted on 11/04/2018 11:20:51 AM PST by laconic
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To: SeekAndFind

“The election-eve NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading by seven percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. That’s down from a nine-percentage point lead last month.”

Any time I see groups like NBC or the WSJ attached to a poll, I cringe. Neither one of these two have told the truth in 50 years. And you’ll notice they said “likely” voters. That means they didn’t actually contact anyone and get a definitive determination they were going to vote. No contact, no poll. Trump and the attack on Kavanaugh has energized many to vote. And not pro liberal. This has all the makings of a made up story, i.e., a lie. And coming from NBC in particular, I’m not real surprised.

rwood


38 posted on 11/04/2018 11:21:20 AM PST by Redwood71
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To: Windflier

Poorly educated and easy to command. Oh and they’re less affluent country bumpkins.

Got it.


39 posted on 11/04/2018 11:21:28 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Because the NBC-WSJ polls are fake, as I documented by showing their 2016 poll.


40 posted on 11/04/2018 11:21:56 AM PST by FreeReign
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