Turns out that the Republicans won 240 seats and the Democrats won just 192.
Democrats are supposedly up 7+.
Then why has the early vote been heavily R+?
You are finding Nate Silver, who predicted 86% chance of Dems taking the House, now saying “80 percent, but it could go either way”. These “pundits” have to protect their reputations and in some cases, their newsletter subscription sales. Even as biased as this poll is, it appears to point us to the following in the Senate: R Gains of North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, Florida and Montana; possibles in Ohio and Michigan. One endangered R seat in Nevada for a net gain of six or seven Senate seats.