Posted on 10/29/2018 3:14:03 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
in 7 Chance Democrats win control (86.4%) 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Remember, it’s all about which base is excited to vote. Also, remember that Donald J. Trump has been great for ALL Americans. This includes hispanics, black, white, yellow, and all hues in between!
Lets see, just spitballing here
Current seats (including R vacancies) 240
MN, gain 2 lose 1, 241
PA: Lamb beats Rothfus but offset by open seat gain. 2 other certain losses. 2 other possible losses (Dent seat and Fitzpatrick). I think Fitz wins but lets give them both so -4, 237
AZ, -1, 236
CA, Lose Issa seat, Several other seats at risk but I’m most worried about Knight so lets say -2, 234
CO, Coffman -1, 233
FL, I think we hold 26 and 27 but for this excessive let’s give the rats 27, 232
IL, they are targeting Roskam and Bost, I think Roskam wins but lets give them that one, 231
IA, Blum looks 50/50 now, most important race in the country maybe, let’s give it to them, I don’t believe Young loses, or King despite the long knives. -1, 230
KS, Yoder, -1 229
KY, I never thought Barr would lose, can’t see it
MI, 2 seats at risk, I think we hold them but let’s say rats win the open seat, 228
MT, lots of media polls showing a tie, no
NE, Bacon was saved when the Berniebot won the rat primary
NV, let’s say the rats hold their open seats
NJ, 1 certain loss. District 11 vulnerable, I don’t see it. but let’s say -2, 226
NM, Open seat vulnerable, close polls, but come on, that would be #240+ for the rats, I don’t think so.
NY, Tenney most vulnerable. Faso could still lose, I don’t think so but let’s give them both. 224
Maine, GOP hold
NC, doesn’t look like rats will gain
OH, ditto
Texas, tritto
Utah, Love vulnerable, I think not but let’s go nuts and give it to them, -1 223
WA State, the one race there looks like a GOP hold
West Virginia, very important race, the fake populist dem trails, GOP hold.
VA, Comstock is a goner I wager. 222
Let me go ahead and give them Young in Iowa, 221
So they need 4 more with this PESSIMISTIC “small poo wave” projection, a lot of potential losses but I’m not betting rats do that well. CA fraud machine probably their best bet to go over the top.
A rosy projection has us holding 233 (-7 net).
The median would be 227 R.
Why aren’t they 50 seats ahead? Hillary wants to know.
Pretty much where I have it.
Ok, some “discussion” info. Can’t say with who, but NV GOP thinks they will not only flip NV3 but also 4 based on current good returns there.
AZ1 still in contention. AZ2 (McSally) is not.
Hearing that NO NY seat will fall (I had one going); Newt said that a “GOP bigwig” told him we’d hold 13/14 CA seats.
Yoder gone, probably Comstock and Coffman, plus three in PA and two in NJ.
That’s about it. We will old the 2 seats at risk in OH, the 2 in NC, all three in TX-—yes Sessions is on the bubble-—but a big turnout there for Abbott will help. Blum will old. Bishop will hold in MI, maybe lose Epstein, but not certain. Say we lose one FL seat. Both IL seats ok. People tell me Ru Paul’s seat in WI is safe.
So that puts me at -10, with at least +2 in MN, but maybe lose Paulsen for net +1=9.
Where do they find the other seats? If we flip even one NV seat it’s out of reach.
I hope you will be joining us here on election night, you were solely responsible for keeping many of us here off the ledges!!!
“Ok, some “discussion” info. Can’t say with who, but NV GOP thinks they will not only flip NV3 but also 4 based on current good returns there.”
FYI: Jon Ralston thinks CD4 is gone for the REPs. He thinks CD3 is in play. DEMS currently lead CD3 by less than 2% based on party registration of early voters so far.
Thanks for the heads up!
1) Ralston is a D.
2) Just reporting what NV GOP told the team I work with. Their report was VERY upbeat.
Never bought into the Bluewave at all.
As a matter of fact I’ve boldly predicted all year not only maintaining both houses but also huge increases in both chambers.
But I do believe that civil war within the GOP is brewing and that Willard Mitt Romney,will be a core leader in it.
1) Can’t see the districts that would enable Rs to gain seats.
2) Minion may think he has power, but his little base has just been diluted bigly by Cramer, Hawley, Braun, Scott, and Blackburn. The Cuckateers do not have the votes to stop anything now.
PA: a pleasig surprise in 2016, looks particularly bleak this time.
I disagree the commie scum Rats have backed themselves into a corner and I told you the very day after the election of 2016 the Repubs will enjoy a really long healthy majority I’m going against conventional wisdom on this LS I believe the Repubs will win and win big clear eyes full hearts can’t lose.
I’m happy with that: so show me the specific seats they can win.
I can’t find more than these: AZ1, NV3, NV4, the two we already have banked in MN, possibly one in PA, longshot Elizabeth Heng in CA. Who else do you see that’s even within 5 points? I’d love to know this info.
As far as the civil war within the GOP is concerned I’ve changed a little bit on that I don’t think Minion will immediately come in with guns blazing like I thought he would I now think he’ll be very coy about it I think he’ll use his first few months to scout a little bit then he’ll strike when we all least expect it.
By then it will be too late.
With holding the House & expanding the senate, we’ll get Ocare repeal and Immigration done before Minion finds his magic underpants.
AND DON’T FORGET-—”odds” say that Buzzi is gonna croak at some point, and Minion will be forced to support Trump’s replacement.
I think they’ll sweep the South especially the Bible Belt states because of Kavanagh I think they’ll majorly sweep the Midwest and the Rustbelt States because of Trump’s America first economic and work policies. Where they won’t have much luck parts of California, Washington, Oregon, and parts of the Northeast.
Oh and I think they’ll do better than expected in the Southwest especially around the border states of Mexico.
Here’s another shocker I don’t think Trump has 50% approval rating I think he has around 70% to 85% approval with at worse 65%
You can call me crazy call nuts call me whatever but I think it’s over for the rats for awhile I think they’ve moved so far to the left as well as they have no Kennedy’s or BJ Clinton’s or Zero’s to guide or lead them that they’re now wondering around the desert aimlessly with no direction whatsoever.
And that’s why I think Repubs will win big and huge in the Senate and Houses races.
If I’m wrong I’ll gladly be the first admit it but if I’m right I want you to ping and tag everyone you can including the owner of the Forum and say ‘SWB’ called it. I’ve got zero to lose
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