You can call me crazy call nuts call me whatever but I think it’s over for the rats for awhile I think they’ve moved so far to the left as well as they have no Kennedy’s or BJ Clinton’s or Zero’s to guide or lead them that they’re now wondering around the desert aimlessly with no direction whatsoever.
I think your prediction is spot in the long run - the Demcrats’ electoral prospects are looking bleak going out 10 or 20 years if they continue as they are, and if Republicans follow Trump’s lead.
But in the short run (the midterms) there are structural limitations to how many house seats Republicans can flip, and how many they can defend in Democrat strongholds.
Most of the pro Trump districts are already held by Republicans, which they have to defend just to hold the majority in the house. Most of the Democrat held seats subject to a credible challenge from a Republican are in Democrat strongholds.
The result is that even with a red wave and favorable long term trends for Republicans, there are severe limitations to how many seats Republicans can flip vs how many Democrats can flip in 2018.
I think it will be very close to what LS is predicting based on registrations and early voting patterns - Republican net loss around 9, worst case 14, but not the 23 the Dems need to take the majority.
I will be thrilled if the Republicans hold the majority in the house, just as I was thrilled with Trump’s 310 electoral college votes in 2016 (which Larry pretty much nailed).