Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Check especially the bit starting at 5:52 in his video.
Yeah but we have a difference potus now. Not one who just sits back and takes it and does what the cabal tells him to do. We don’t have that guy any more.We have the real deal who knows how to get things done.
Quoting that: "Hurricane Florence is undergoing rapid intensification (+30kt in 18 hours), and is back to a Category 3 major hurricane this morning."
I think its extremely hard to pinpoint the actual track of a big storm like this one.Would not surprise me if the track changes somewhat several times before hitting.Even then big storms wobble and its almost impossible to tell exactly where they will go.
I guess that depends on which weather guys you listen to. I just watched the latest forecasts, and they cite the European model as more accurate. Only God knows what exactly the storm is going to do. But, I believe the current projected cone is pretty accurate.
Wow cll - you went through Maria. “Only” 40 days without power? You’re a better man than me.
Try the Category Six blog at wunderground. Yes, it is infested with the AGW nonsense, but some good info out there also.
Hi rodguy. While what you said is generally true, I think this time it is going to hit as projected. There is simply too much agreement on the models. I just watched Joe Bastardi’s update on Weatherbell.com, posted an hour ago. See the incredible graphic he posts at about the 6:10 mark. It is from the European ECMWF - which Joe just said is the best compared to other models. The path is around Wilmington, maybe a little bit north or south. The projected rainfall is nearly catastrophic in some areas. Much like Houston last year. The high pressure above the projected path is almost certainly going to steer it to where the models currently show.
See Windy.com
People in the path need to start preparations NOW. People in the flood areas (projected ) need to do likewise. We can wish it away, but if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
bkmk
Seems to be good agreement on some where in NC but it’s still 4 days out so things can change. Personally I use the 3 days out forecast to make my go/stay decision. 3 days out the NHC is pretty damn accurate. (Most of the time)
Looks like we’re in for a repeat of Hurricane Matthew, along with a nasty helping of Hurricane Floyd, just for grins. This would have been a really good week for a fishing trip in the Keys, but it appears we might be fishing for mudcats in our back yards instead!
This is likely a CAT 3 major right now
will find out more soon when recon gets there
There is forecast to be be dual outflow channels soon...all that rising air has to exhaust out otherwise the storm get clogged up
think of it it like a car engine.....even if you have a brand new engine(or warm water and no shear) the engine won’t run at its full potential if the tail pipe is clogged up
As Florence is nearing landfall, could/should this be moved to BREAKING NEWS Sidebar?
4 FEET of rainfall. Bastardi’s morning update notes that the Euro model is on board with that now... and the even more scary bit is in just how widespread an area could see that kind of deluge.
Check especially the bit starting at 5:52 in his video.
Is this premium? I cannot view it...nothing showing up
Found your link later down thread...thx!
Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.
The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don’t see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane’s wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
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